Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Friday, Feb. 2, 2018

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Friday, February 2, 2018

​RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: C

Use: 2-Lucky Student; 4-Devil’s Beauty

Forecast: Lucky Student moves up a notch following a solid win vs. $8,000 foes last month.  First or second in 10 of 14 career starts over the Santa Anita main strip, the Dollase-trained mare should be tough right back, but at 8/5 on the morning line probably won’t offer any real value.  Devil’s Beauty, first off the claim for the cold Jacobson stable, drops for $16,000 to $10,000, never a healthy sign, even for this barn.  However, she knows how to win, always tries hard, and, physical problems or not, is the one to fear most.  Both should be included in rolling exotic play in a race that we’ll otherwise pass.

 

​​RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: C

Use: 3-Radio Chatter; 6-Veiled Heat; 8-Proper Drink

Forecast: Bottom-rung maiden claiming fillies and mares sprint six furlongs in the second race that offers three main contenders but no real wagering value.  Proper Drink surfaces for a tag for the first time following a six month vacation for new trainer Powell, lands the comfortable outside post, and is the 8/5 morning line favorite pretty much by default.  She returns without blinkers in a dirt sprint after running long on last summer.  Veiled Heat also is dropping to her lowest level ever and seems likely to improve in a soft spot.  She has numbers that make her worth including in rolling exotic play.  We’ll also toss in Radio Chatter, freshened since November and with enough early speed to be a threat from gate to wire.  Tread lightly here.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B

Use:  5-Optic; 7-Impetu

Forecast:  Optic exits an infinitely tougher sprint won by the promising Ax Man, and even though this son of Gemologist finished a distant fourth, beaten 14 lengths, his “buried” speed figure was actually quite good.  Three easy workouts since that New Year’s Day race indicates he’s doing well, so at 4-1 on the morning line he’s worth strong consideration in a moderate field.  Impetu flashed excellent speed in his debut vs. straight maidens over this course and distance last month before fading in the lane; he should stick much better today with this class drop combined with that outing under his belt and a bullet half mile workout last week.  Both should be used in your rolling exotics.

 

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use:  2-Tribal Jewel; 4-Rprettyboyfloyd

Forecast:  Rprettyboyfloyd drops a level following a claim by a barn that does very well with this angle so we’re anticipating an improved performance by this old pro who has strong recent speed figures.  We’ll also include Tribal Jewel, wheeled back quickly following a sharp score vs. bottom-rung foes just a week ago.  He’s always been a genuine sort (13 career wins) and can be effective on the front end or from a stalking position.  We’ll try to get by using just these two in our rolling exotics.

 

​​RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Li’l Grazen; 3-Batiquitos; 7-Winemenow

Forecast: This is a contentious downhill grass affair requiring a spread.  We’ll go three-deep and hope that’s sufficient.  Li’l Grazen is fresh from a nice score vs. softer foes while earning a career top speed figure and with a bit more improvement could be tough right back.  This is her first start on grass but Grazen’s offspring seem to like it and maybe this Carava-trained filly will, too.  Batiquitos is the likely choice and one to beat based on her sharp runner-up in a fast turf sprint at Del Mar two races back.  Winemenow flew home but ran out of room when second under similar conditions last month.  Her only career win came over this course and distance, and with some help up front she could be hard to contain in the final furlong.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 6-Restoring Hope; 8-Big Buzz

Forecast: Restoring Hope shows a bullet workout since raced and remains well regarded by the Baffert barn, even though he failed to duplicate his monster speed figure when third under similar conditions in late December.  He switches to Prat and should be on or near the lead throughout at what probably will be a shorter price than his 9/5 morning line.  Big Buzz can be used as a saver on a ticket or two; the Yakteen-trained colt continues to work well and may show improvement in his first outing on dirt.

 

​​​RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 4-Rick’s Dream; 9-Hank the Tank

Forecast: Rick’s Dream and Hank the Tank, two-three finishers in a similar race on New Year’s Eve, face off again and are the ones to beat in this $16,000 nw-3 sprint.  ‘Tank lands the comfortable outside draw and has a bit more early speed, so we’ll give him a slight edge on top.  ‘Dream has steadily rising speed figures and with another forward move today could be hard to deny.  These are the two we’ll use in our rolling exotics.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 1-Wonderful Lie; 5-Miss Boom Boom

Forecast:  Miss Boom Boom is double-jumped in class following a nice score two-turning over this turf course last month and seems quite capable of repeating for the Gutierrez-O’Neill team.  She’s always been a route-type but milers do very well down the hill and we expect this veteran mare to maintain her sharp form.  Wonderful Lie scored handsomely under these conditions two races back while earning a number that makes her a strong fit at this level.  She gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Roman and should be able to draft into a ground-saving, mid-pack position from her rail post.  Miss Boom Boom is preferred on top but we’ll use both in our rolling exotics.

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Friday, Feb. 2, 2018

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