The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
Friday, January 26, 2018
RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 4-Winning Element
Forecast: Winning Element exits a much tougher allowance optional $40,000 affair and today faces straight claimers for the same price. He’s also much better drawn today and should draft into a very comfortable pace-stalking position in a field that offers very little speed. With Prat staying aboard, he’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.
RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 6-Coils Gold
Forecast: Coils Gold caught a much tougher field that normal for this entry-level allowance condition and wound up fourth in his most recent outing last October, but this group seems well within his range so we’re expecting the Baffert-trained colt to bounce back in a big way. Drawn comfortably outside and sporting a work tab that indicates he’s fit and ready, the son of Coil should settle into a pace-pressing spot and then have every chance. We’ll make him a straight play and rolling exotic single.
RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 4-Roman Tizzy; 7-Rye Patch
Forecast: Roman Tizzy is an old timer with good recent form and should produce his usual honest effort in this bottom-of-the-barrel claiming miler. The 9-year-old has hit the board in five of his last six starts while earning speed figures that are typical for this level. Roman stays aboard for the high percentage Cerin barn. Rye Patch was just claimed for $25,000 and returns a month later for $6,250, ‘nuff said. Jacobson often wins on the drop, so we can’t completely dismiss this ex-classer, but it should be noted that the son of Hard Spun has never won a race on dirt.
RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Cayate; 7-Taco Tuesday; 9-Western Warrior
Forecast: The fourth race is a chaotic affair requiring a spread in rolling exotic play. Cayate makes the all-important class drop from straight maiden to maiden claiming and should greatly appreciate the class relief. The Mulhall-trained gelding exits a hot race and earned a pretty decent buried number in what was his first outing since September. Taco Tuesday is a second-time starter from the Cassidy barn with a right to produce a forward move after finishing an okay but non-threatening third in his debut vs. bottom-rung foes last month. This raise in class from $20,000 to $50,000 can be viewed as a sign of confidence. Western Warrior, away since May of 2016, has trained decently for his comeback and hails from a clever barn. He returns as a gelding and lands the cozy outside post. We’ll try to survive and advance using just these three, but not with any real degree of confidence.
RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Scatterling; 4-Tammy’s Window
Forecast: Tammy’s Window returns from the Bay Area where she was visually quite impressive winning a starter’s allowance event with a career-equaling speed figure. She’s likely to run similarly today over a course she’s been known to handle, and is reunited with Prat, who has won on her in the past. Scatterling moves up a notch after missing by a neck over this course and distance late last month in a solid effort while earning a speed figures that makes her a strong fit in this league. She’s a deep closer who could use some help up front. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Tammy’s Window
RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B+
Forecast: Mondaymorningblues hooked some quick fillies in a pair of outings last year as a young 2-year-old and ran decently in both. She returns off the bench for Miller (solid with layoff runners) and has trained well enough to be fit and ready in a below par straight maiden abbreviated sprint for fillies. If she comes back as well as she left, the daughter of Morning Line will be hard to beat, so let’s make her a straight play and rolling exotic single.
RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-El Tovar; 8-Incensed; 9-Mesut
Forecast: With just three career starts including a sharp win from maidens down this hillside course last month, Mesut is the pick to score right back. The son of Gio Ponti has improved with every outing and is likely to continue his progressive form with added experience. Roman will give the Gaines-trained gelding the patient ride he requires. El Tovar is a course specialist (four career wins) and has a good consistent series of speed figures. The concern is his lack of early speed and his unfavorable rail post, but Bejarano knows the 9-year-old well and with good racing luck should have him in the firing line late. Incensed was nosed out in a similar event on New Year’s Eve; he’ll probably turn in a similar effort today. However, with three wins and nine seconds in 18 career starts, he’s never really been known to be too generous under pressure. We’ll save with him in on a ticket or two.
RACE 8: Post 4:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Ministertomyheart; 4-Moon Juice; 8-Fivetwentyninefund
Forecast: Ministertomyheart showed a bit of run in his debut last June, lacking early speed but finding his best stride late in a better effort that the line will show. He returns for Miyadi in a very soft spot with a typically slow series of works; he did, however, record a bullet drill over the training track earlier this month. Moon Juice is steadily improving with racing, and while hardly a world beater he won’t have to be to handle this bottom-rung maiden claiming field. Fivetwentyninefund has numbers at Los Alamitos that make him a solid contender and may have further improvement in him. Let’s use all three in our rolling exotics and then press a bit keying Ministertomyheart on top.