Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Friday, Jan. 5, 2018

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.


Friday, January 5, 2018

​RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B

Use:  1-Lady Ninja; 3-Moon Kitty

Forecast: Moon Kitty moves up a notch following a sharp Los Alamitos score when earning a career top speed figure and she does have a prior win over the Santa Anita main track to confidence that she can repeat that effort today.  The Miller-trained filly showed she can stalk win rather that merely bust out and go, so Roman, who stays aboard, has that option if required.  Lady Ninja is a perfect one-for-one at Santa Anita and returns to the claiming ranks for the first time since her maiden claiming score here last July.  Assuming she leaves cleanly from the rail, the daughter of Majesticperfection should be a strong pace presence throughout.  The slight edge goes to ‘Kitty but we’ll include both in our rolling exotics.


​​RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 4-Emboldened; 7-Hottalabamba

Forecast: The two Baffert fillies who figure to get most of the play in this maiden sprint for sophomore fillies breezed together last week (see workout) and there really wasn’t much between them, but Hottalabamba has the benefit of a prior race and comfortable outside post so she deserves top billing.  Emboldened certainly can run, too, and worked five furlongs in 59 3/5 seconds just four days ago, the best of 34 for the distance.


​​RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 3-Trap Queen; 6-Princess Dorian

Forecast: Princess Dorian exits a series of tougher starter’s allowance races and drops for the money run in this $25,000 restricted (nw-2) sprint for older fillies and mares.  A repeat of her race before last should be more than good enough to handle this field.  Trap Queen won her debut over this track last May and was stopped on, returned vs. tougher on turf in November at Del Mar and was overmatched, and today seems realistically spotted while sporting a nice, healthy work tab since last race.  We’re expecting the winner to be one of these two, with preference on top to Princess Dorian.

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Towards the Light; 3-Williston Dude

Forecast: Towards the Light surfaces in a claimer for the first time and this considerable drop in class – which is warranted based on pure form – should making this Munnings gelding the one to beat in a below par field for the level.  A repeat of his third place finish over this main track last May in straight maiden company is more than good enough to handle this assignment.  Williston Dude also has the first-time-in-a-claimer angle with back numbers that put him right in the hunt.  ‘Light gets the edge on top but we’ll certainly have tickets using ‘Dude as well in our rolling exotics.

​RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 3-Martin Riggs; 6-Holy Ghost

Forecast: Similar to our analysis of today’s fourth race, we’re going lean to two main contenders who are being dropped into a claimer for the first time.  Martin Riggs, freshened since early November, continues to work sharply in the a.m. for Glatt and seems the solid choice in this maiden $100,000 affair over a mile on turf.  He has enough early speed to gain a favorable forward position and then have every chance from the top of the lane to the wire against a moderate field.  Be aware that at this time of the year on this circuit, there is a huge gap between a maiden special weight event and a high priced maiden claimer.  Holy Ghost has the same pattern and today adds blinkers, so improvement is likely based on two factors.  The son of Ghostzapper should be the most dangerous of the closers.  We’ll have extra tickets keying Martin Riggs but use both in our rolling exotics.


​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: C

Use: 1-Candy Boss; 8-Singleforareason

Forecast: Singleforareason, away since February and plummeting to the bottom, clearly has her problems but if she has one good one left she’ll probably produce it off the layoff for a barn that has excellent stats with this angle.  She’s draws a nice outside post and gets Prat, so the daughter of Shackleford should have no excuses.  Candy Boss continues to drop in class while seeking her proper level and may have found it today.  Rail and all, the daughter of Twirling Candy should be on or near the lead throughout (assuming she breaks well) and her only prior race over this main track (albeit over a wet-fast surface) resulted in a maiden special weight score two years ago.  We’ll try to get by using just these two but not with a great deal of confidence, so we suggest you tread lightly.

​​RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: C+

Use: 4-Candy Ruler; 7-Battleground State; 9-Winemenow

Forecast: This is a competitive downhill turf dash for state-bred first-level allowance fillies and mares and requires a bit of a spread.  Winemenow has good form over this course, a cozy outside draw, and the route-to-sprint angle we like.  Clearly most effective going short, the daughter of Unusual Heat looks capable of producing a dangerous late bid with some help could tag the speed.  Battleground State also is turning back in trip and has the proper style for this unique downhill lay out.  She’s exiting a series of two-turn affairs, retains Prat, and should be running on strongly late.  Candy Ruler has good speed, and in a field without too much zip might find herself on the front end without undue pressure.  Given that scenario she may prove an elusive target.  We’ll try to get by using just these three but if you can afford to go deeper, go right ahead.


​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: C+

Use: 6-Mishievious Lass; 9-Sauce On Side

Forecast:  Sauce On Side drops again in class and seems to have found her winning level.  The Miller-trained filly ran okay two-turning two races back vs. straight maidens, has rising numbers, and really doesn’t have a whole lot to beat.  Mischievous Lass is another class dropper that appears likely to improve against this group and adds blinkers for the first time for Hollendorfer.  She’s basically a contender by default.  This is another race in which we’re not completely sold on our top two selections, so fee free to spread as deeply as you can afford to.




Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Friday, Jan. 5, 2018

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