Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Friday, May 11, 2018

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Friday, May 11, 2018

RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 1-Soltero; 6-Cajun Treasure

Forecast:  Cajun Treasure showed plenty of promise in his recent debut – he finished a close fourth without being knocked about – and should produce a significant forward move today while getting an extra furlong to work with.  This expensive son of Treasure Beach has upside the others don’t and is worth strong consideration in the straight pool as well as in rolling exotic play.  Soltero is the logical favorite and one to beat.  The son of Blame has rising speed figures, a good inside draw, and should be forwardly placed and have everY chance while stretching out to a distance that should bring out his best.

 

​​RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Sparky Ville; 3-Tijori; 7-Ovrer Emphasize; 8-Toothless Wonder

Forecast:  This baby race has at least four very well regarded first-timers.  Toothless Wonder, a $220,000 purchase in March, breezed a furlong during the OBS preview session in 10 1/5 seconds and looked terrific doing so.  The son of Street Boss has been “hidden” at San Luis Rey Downs since arriving in California, but – make no mistake – he can run.  Tijori brought $525,000 at that same OBS March Sale and flashed high speed when working a furlong in 10 seconds flat.  Prat doesn’t ride too many 2-year-olds this early in the season, so you know this daughter of Will Take Charge is very well regarded.  Sparky Ville has trained like a quick son of Candy Ride and Bonde entices Smith to take the call, while Over Emphasize went a quick half mile from the gate last week in 47 2/5 seconds, which was the second fastest of 48 for the distance.  We’ll give a slight edge on top to Toothless Wonder but include all four in our rolling exotics.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 7-Momma’s Baby Boy; 8-Kona Coast

Forecast:  A little will go a long way in this weak maiden $50,000 claiming main track miler.  Kona Coast exits a much stronger winner’s race (a starter’s allowance) and earned a speed figure when third in that race that would bury this group.  The outside draw does him no favors but the switch to Prat is a major plus.  Momma’s Baby Boy is a 10-race maiden and perhaps not one to trust but he’s removing blinkers and making his first start as a gelding, so improvement likely.  Both should be used in rolling exotic play.

 

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT. Grade: B

Use:  1-Majestic Eagle; 6-Scat Big Dad; 7-Canadian Game

Forecast: This is a split of the first race, a nine-furlong maiden affair on grass.  Majestic Eagle, second in his last three, switches to Smith and ran very well at this trip two runs back when second to future star Fibonacci.  Scat Big Dad was given a run in his debut down the Hillside course and should appreciate this stretch out in trip.  Canadian Game tries grass for the first time, and if he can reproduce his best main track form on the sod the son of Curlin should be right there.  He also sports that always-attractive blinkers off angle.  We’ll include all three in our rolling exotics, with Majestic Eagle the one to beat.

 

​​RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 6-Mesa Sky; 7-I’ll Wrap It Up

Forecast:  Mesa Sky and I’ll Wrap It Up look pretty solid in this abbreviated sprint for $8,000 claimers, and we should be able to survive and advance in rolling exotic play using only these two.  ‘Sky returns to his winning level and a repeat of any one of his last three starts will make him hard to beat.  I’ll Wrap It Up earned a sharp number when returning to a one-corner race last month vs. $6,250 foes and shouldn’t be impacted by this one-level class hike.  He’s 3-for-13 lifetime over the Santa Anita main track; 2-for-32 everywhere else.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Southern Warlord; 2-Tidal Effect; 6-American All Star; 9-Joejoe’s Kingdom

Forecast:  Here’s another difficult affair that requires a significant spread.  Southern Warlord exits a hot race and should produce a forward move in his second start off a layoff for Mulhall.  The son of Shackleford projects to be prominent throughout from the rail.  American All Star just broke his maiden with a good number, has the proper style for this extended sprint trip and may be as good as any in his first start for Craigmyle.  Joejoe’s Kingdom has rising numbers and a good style for the trip.  With some help up front the son of Animal Kingdom should be heard from late.  Tidal Effect is intriguing; he’s a first-time gelding and a maiden in four starts but attracts Prat and earned a speed figure in his most recent outing that makes him a threat.

 

​​​RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 1-Longden; 3-Take the One O One

Forecast:  Take the One O One disappointed when weakening late to wind up third in the Echo Eddie Stakes but stretches out today and probably will be the controlling speed.  He’s a bit questionable at this distance but should have every chance for a gate-to-wire score.  Longden likely will draft into a stalking position; the son of Bernardini earned a big figure when beating maidens over this track and distance in late March and has trained well since.  If his improvement continues, he’ll be right there.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 1-Buddy Bear; 3-Ashley’s Big Guy; 4-Perfect Tale

Forecast: Maiden claimers meet over a mile on grass in the finale in yet another tough affair.  Perfect Tale has a pair of main track sprints under his belt and today stretches out while adding Lasix for the first time.  He’s bred to run long and might get brave on the front end if no other speed materializes.  Ashley’s Big Guy exits a series of straight maiden affairs and certainly should enjoy the class drop.  Buddy Bear chased a considerably tougher field in his debut and seems certain to improve with the drop into a seller, so we’ll toss him in as well.

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Friday, May 11, 2018

Jeff Siegel's Blog |