The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
Saturday, March 3, 2018
RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Minister’s Gold; 4-Cool Your Jets; 8-Shaymin
Forecast: We will handicap today’s card under the assumption that there will be no grass racing and that the main track will be “off.” Cool Your Jets closed a gap in a fairly promising debut sprint effort, has a superior off track pedigree, and should be able to handle this stretch out in trip. Minister’s Gold has rising speed figures and will be competitive if he can perform as well in the mud as he has on grass. Shaymin has the “blinkers off” angle combined with dangerous early speed. He should be a strong fit with these, assuming he can act over the going.
RACE 2: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 2-More Honor: 3-Heartfullofstars
Forecast: More Honor has the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern and is adding blinkers, so we’ll assume gate-to-wire tactics will be employed. His pedigree says he should absolutely adore an off track. Heartfullofstars is strong in the speed figure department and this is his second off a layoff since joining the D’Amato barn, so further improvement is likely. Both should be used in rolling exotic play with More Honor the preferred top pick.
RACE 3: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Matriculate; 2-Roman Tizzy
Forecast: Matriculate has seen better days but this drop to the $10,000 level and the stretch out in trip could wake him up. The Spawr-trained gelding can handle the wet track and has run well at this distance in the past, though he’s never actually won around two turns. Against this group the extra distance shouldn’t be an issue. Roman Tizzy is an old pro with rising numbers for a high percentage outfit and also is unbeaten (one-for-one) over a wet track. He seems likely to fire his best shot. Both should be included in rolling exotic play; we’ll have a few extra tickets keying Matriculate on top.
RACE 4: Post: 1:30 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 6-Fast as Cass; 8-English Investor
Forecast: Golden Gate Fields invader English Investor has improving numbers and seems capable of continuing that pattern in this soft state-bred maiden mile event that will most likely be transferred from turf to the main track. He’s re-equipped with blinkers, and though beaten as the favorite in his most recent outing should make amends against this group. Fast as Cass isn’t particularly fast on speed figures but with two sprints behind him the son of Unusual Heat should be primed for a big effort stretching out. We’ll try to get by in rolling exotic play using just these two.
RACE 5: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: X
Single: 6-Lookie Loo
Forecast: Lookie Loo is listed at 8/5 on the morning line and looks it on paper. If handles the mud, the Baffert-trained colt should be able to stretch out and win, and his pedigree (Candy Ride) suggests he should improve considerably as the distances increase. Let’s make him a no-value, rolling exotic single.
RACE 6: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: X
Use: 3-Midnight Bisou; 6-Dream Tree
Forecast: Dream Tree is perfect in four starts and already is a two-time graded stakes winner over a route of ground. Her numbers don’t jump off the page but she’s certainly made of the right stuff and will be tough to deny again over a wet track she’s bred to handle. Midnight Bisou stretches out for the first time but acts like she’ll handle the added ground, and on pure numbers she’s actually faster than the favorite. This is a race we’d prefer to watch, so we’ll pass other than to use both in our rolling exotics.
RACE 7: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 2-Zippy Groom; 4-Treasure Hunter
Forecast: Zippy Groom is bred to move up a ton in the mud, and even if he doesn’t the Hess-trained son of City Zip looks good enough to beat this field. His numbers are improving, he retains Roman, and we’re expecting him to produce the last run. Treasure Hunter ran well to be second in a similar spot in late January, sports a healthy work tab since, and has enough speed to be on or near the lead throughout. For him, it’s just a matter of handling the track. Both should be used in rolling exotic play; we’ll press with extra tickets keying Zippy Groom.
RACE 8: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Salten Sapity; 3-Lady Ninja; 6-Beau Square
Forecast: This race is a cinch to be transferred to the main track, and since most of these are turf specialists the field could shrink down to next to nothing. Beau Square should be able to handle any surface and is most comfortable as a late-running sprinter. She seems the most dangerous of the closers. Salten Sapity has good grass form, and if she stays in the race we’ll give her a chance to reproduce it in the mud. On pedigree she should handle it. Lady Ninja is a fit on figures and won’t have any issue with the change in surface. Her main track claiming win two races back charts well with these. These are the three we’ll consider in our rolling exotics.
RACE 9: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 9-Wild Eddie
Forecast: Wild Eddie lands the lovely outside post and should have every chance to earn his diploma in his first start at the bottom level. A repeat of his race before last will be more than good enough and his pedigree suggests that an off track won’t be an inconvenience. Let’s make him a straight play and rolling exotic single.
RACE 10: Post 4:30 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Hank the Tank; 3-Beantown Boys; 6-Rick’s Dream
Forecast: The finale is a difficult nw-3 $16,000 claiming sprint. Use as many as you can afford to. Hank the Tank may have lost his best chance at the start in a similar spot last month but we’ll give him a chance to make amends. He gets a huge break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Espinoza, who looked pretty good winning his first race last week. Beantown Boys drops to his lowest level ever and looks to be most dangerous of the late runners. Rick’s Dream was a voided claim in his last outing but his recent form is good, and if he fires his best shot the Palma-trained gelding should at least hit the board.