Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Sunday, Feb. 25, 2018

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.


Sunday, February 25, 2018

​RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 5-Particleacelerator; 6-Curly’s Waterfront; 8-Awesome Heights

Forecast: The Sunday opener is an inscrutable downhill turf sprint for $40,000 claimers.  Nothing would surprise us.  Particleacelerator has dangerous early speed and has won over this course in the past, so if he can shake loose early without undue pressure he could take this field a very long way.  Curly’s Waterfront, also a prior winner over this course and distance, has been freshened since late December, retains Talamo, and may be the most dangerous of the closers.  Awesome Heights broke his maiden under these conditions last fall and then was sent long on the grass followed by a dirt sprint.  Sprinting on turf is what he wants to do, so we’re expecting the Drysdale-trained colt to regain his best form.  Let’s use all three in our rolling exotics and if you can afford to go deeper, go right ahead.


​​RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: X

Use: 2-Alternate Rhythm; 4-El Asesino

Forecast: Alternate Rhythm appears to have found a proper spot to graduate but at 6/5 on the morning line he offers no value.  The Mullins-trained gelding dropped to this level for the first time last month and ran well to be a close third while earning a speed figure good enough to beat this field.  You might also consider El Asesino in your rolling exotics, though at 9/5 on the morning line there’s not much we can do with him, either.  The Ruis-trained colt may be a tad quicker than ‘Rhythm and if he can get jump on his main rival during the early stages he might never look back.

​RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: X

Single: 1-Majestic Heat

Forecast:  Majestic Heat returns to a sprint and doesn’t have to worry about Unique Bella today.  Rail and all, she looks like a standout and we’re expecting Prat to have her along in time, though at 6/5 on the morning line and liable to go lower the Mandella-trained mare can be used as a rolling exotic single but nothing else.


​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT. Grade: B+

Use:  1-Zaffinah; 4-Bowie

Forecast:  Zaffinah returned off a long layoff and was unlucky to finish third vs. similar after lacking a clear path in the final furlong over this course and distance last month.  With better racing luck today, the Irish-bred filly can produce the last run at a nice price.  Bowie destroyed a first-level allowance field with a powerful career-top number in a recent hillside win and if she runs back to that race today the daughter of Malibu Moon will be hard to beat.  With just four career starts under her belt, the Mandella-trained filly has room for further improvement and is the likely choice and one to beat.  Let’s double the race in our rolling exotics and then have a few extra tickets keying Zaffinah on top.

​RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: X

Use: 2-Graycaster; 4-Upo

Forecast: Graycaster makes his first start as a gelding in his first outing since November and has been sharp in recent a.m. drills for Hollendorfer to indicate he might be a better type this time around.  We’ll give him the edge on top over Upo, a first-timer from the Miller barn with a reasonable series of workouts for connections that have a solid record with debut runners.  Both should be included in rolling exotic play in a five-runner affair that should otherwise be left alone.


​​​RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 4-Pomp and Party; 7-Herunbridledpower

Forecast: Pomp and Party plummets to the bottom while getting a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Roman.  She’s won on this main track in the past and has little to beat, though at 9/5 on the morning line she’s not going to offer much in the way of wagering value.  We’ll also include in our rolling exotics Herunbridledpower, away since the fall when she was voided claim at this level.  Her workout pattern at Los Alamitos hardly inspires, but the daughter of Kafwain has been first or second in10 of 15 career starts so she’s worth respecting.


​​​RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 1-Magic Musketier; 3-Masked; 5-Colonel Cash

Forecast: Masked improve a ton in his second career start when switched to the surface he’s bred to love and the son of Data Link can be tough right back if he can repeat the quality of his recent maiden win.  The Baffert-trained colt is wheeled back pretty quickly (15 days) but if doesn’t bounce he’ll be right there.  Colonel Cash makes his first start as a gelding and will be removing blinkers, so there’s a strong possibility he’ll improve.  Third under these conditions in his most recent start, the D’Amato-trained son of Colonel John should be heard from late.  Magic Musketier has the route-to-spring angle that usual produces live runners in these downhill turf events and the Hollendorfer-trained colt is a strong fit on speed figures.  Desormeaux will have him doing his best work in the final furlong.  Let’s use all three in our rolling exotics while slightly preferring Masked on top.

​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: C

Use: 2-Raagheb; 3-Stormin Monarcho; 6-Ike Walker

Forecast: Six $40,000 older claimers meet over a mile on the main track with three main contenders, each of which have a right to win.  Ike Walker was badly overmatched in the San Pasqual Stakes earlier this month but isn’t today and should snap back to good form.  Stormin Monarcho could be the controlling speed and given that kind of trip likely will take this field a very long way.  The old-timer has won 14 races throughout his career and may snap to life with the switch to Desormeaux.  Raagheb is Jacobson-trained invader from New York with a few races that chart well here so we’ll toss him in as well.


​RACE 9: Post 5:00 PT.  Grade: B+

Single: 10-Rockin Ready

Forecast: Rockin Ready ran a winning race in her debut over this course and distance last month but missed by a nose to the very promising Toinette while three clear of the rest.  A similar effort today should be more than good enough to graduate.  There’s some value here in the straight pool at her morning line of 5/2 but we suspect she’ll go lower.  She’ll be a single for us in rolling exotic play.

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Sunday, Feb. 25, 2018

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