Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Sunday, Feb. 4, 2018

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Sunday, February 4, 2018

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RACE 1: Post 11:00 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 1-Californiagoldrush; 3-Ms Peintour

Forecast: Early first post time is 11:00 on Super Bowl Sunday.  Ms Peintour hid from a decent field of maidens at Gulfstream Park in her debut in early December and today shows up for new connections following a private purchase.  She was 65-1 in that victory; today she’s 9/5 on the morning line.  Californiagoldrush also was a surprising debut winner; the Drysdale-trained filly produced a strong late run to win down the hill in what has proven to be a productive race.  She can get nothing but better with experience and distance.  Both should be included in rolling exotic play; based on price alone we’ll put Californiagoldrush slightly on top.

 

​​RACE 2: Post 11:30 PT. Grade: X

Use: 5-Milhaud; 7-Thankful Every Day

Forecast: The two favorites should dominate in this bottom-rung maiden claiming sprint.  Both exit the same race with Thankful Every Day and Milhaud finishing second and third, respectively over this track and distance last month.  Neither one is trustworthy but there’s little else to make a case for.  Use them both in rolling exotic play or simply pass the race.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 12:00 PT. Grade: X

Single: 6-Gem of a Guy

Forecast:  ​Gem of a Guy is 6/5 on the morning line and looks it on paper in this maiden claiming sprint for sophomores.  A good second vs. similar last month and today making his first start as a gelding, the Miller-trained son of Gemologist was three clear of the rest in that race and really won’t have to improve at all much to beat this group.  He’s a no-value, rolling exotic single.

 

​​​RACE 4: Post: 12:30 PT. Grade: X

Single:  3-Dream Tree

Forecast: “Grade X” is prominent today.  Here’s another logical short price winning favorite, Dream Tree, who puts her unbeaten string on the line in the Las Virgenes Stakes over a mile on the main track.  At 3/5 on the morning line there’s little we can do with her other than to use her as a rolling exotic single.

 

​​RACE 5: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B+

Single: 7-Wicked Storm

Forecast: Wicked Storm finished third in her debut but ran a winning race in defeat and seems sure to improve with that effort underneath her.  She lands the cozy outside post, gets an extra half-furlong to work with, retains Bejarano, and should draft into a lovely pace-stalking position.  Let’s make her a strong straight play and rolling exotic single.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B

Use:  2-Aquaphobia; 5-Lazzam

Forecast: Eastern shipper Aquaphobia arrives fit and ready and very strong in the speed figure department.  Freshened since November but sporting a solid series of local works, the Falcone-trained son of Giant’s Causeway has good tactical speed and looks capable of producing the last run.  Lazzam got a confidence-building win vs. softer over this course and distance last month and similar effort makes him dangerous right back.  Let’s try to get survive using just these two while pressing a bit with Aquaphobia on top.

 

​​​RACE 7: Post 2:00 PT.  Grade: C+

Use: 4-All Net; 6-Taylorealswift; 9-Mishievious Lass

Forecast: This maiden claiming router for 3-year-old fillies looks a bit treacherous, so we’ll go three-deep and hope that’s enough.  All Net shows up in a seller for the first time and seems sure to improve at this level after a pair of non-threatening efforts on turf last fall.  She’s worked quite well for her return, retains Baze, and really doesn’t have a whole lot to beat.  Mischievous Lass, first off the claim for Glatt, is a fit on figures and may be the most dangerous of the closers.  Taylorealswift, in the frame in two of her last three, retains Bejarano and can at least hit the board again today.

​​​​RACE 8: Post 2:30 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 4-Freddies Dream; 10-Kochees

Forecast:  Bay area shipper Kochees arrives in sharp form for super trainer Wong; the 8-year-old gelding improved sharply for his new connections when winning first-off-the-claim in a restricted $8,000 claimer last month.  First or second in 15 of 35 career starts, the son of Lion Heart has the proper style for this extended sprint distance and looks capable of producing the last run.  Freddies Dream is another that appears to prefer this seven furlong trip and has two prior wins over this main track.  He, too, will be heard from late.  Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Kochees.

 

 ​RACE 9: Post 3:00 PT.  Grade: C+

Use: 2-Tell Me More; 5-Diva La Mousse; 8-My Party Girl; 11-Arrowsphere

Forecast: This chaotic maiden-claiming turf sprint for older fillies and mares requires a spread; we’ll go four deep but if you find the need to use more, go right ahead.  Tell Me More is a progressive sort trying grass for the first time, and if she can produce another forward move she can beat this field.  She has the route-to-spring angle we like, retains Nakatani, and just earned a career top speed figure.  Diva La Mousse makes her first start for a tag and is highly likely to improve against this group.  She’s run well vs. straight maidens over this course and distance in the past and in her first start since April the Baffert-trained filly looks fit enough and properly spotted.  My Party Girl, a solid third in her debut last April before going to the sidelines, is another that can fire fresh in this league.  She has a healthy series of recent workouts that should have her plenty fit.  Arrowsphere is a 10-race maiden and perhaps not one to trust, but she has dangerous early speed and could get brave if she shake loose early without being pressured.

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Sunday, Feb. 4, 2018

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