Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Sunday, May 13, 2018

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.


Sunday, May 13, 2018

RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 2-Tequila Blanco; 5-Big Sky Logan; 7-Original Intent

Forecast:  Tequila Blanco stretches out again after just missing in a similar maiden $50,000 claimer down the Hillside course.  With just two career outings, the son of Cape Blanco has room for further improvement and should enjoy a ground-saving trip from his inside draw.  Big Sky Logan has a run three races back over this course and distance that charts very well here; the Cerin-trained gelding will be heard from late if he can get some help up front.  Original Intent is worth including at 12-1 on the morning line.  The Hollendorfer-trained gelding has some turf breeding and could flash improvement in his first try on the lawn.  Let’s use all three in our rolling exotics while preferring Tequila Blanco on top.


​​RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: C

Use: 1-Get Yourself Home; 2-Lucky Outcome; 5-Marjorie E

Forecast:  Lucky Outcome flashed good zip in a straight maiden dash before faltering in her only prior outing last fall and returns in soft spot in a field without any other apparent early speed.  She should clear this field and have every chance to wire it.  Get Yourself Home has numbers that put her in the hunt and is reunited with Bejarano, who has gotten good run out of her in the past.  Marjorie E, a reasonable third in her debut vs. similar, has a right to produce a forward move and probably needs to be included as well.  In a race that we’ll otherwise pass, Lucky Outcome deserves top billing, but not with any real degree of confidence.


​​RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B+

Single: 5-Cinnamom Twist

Forecast:  Cinnamon Twist is 9/5 on the morning line and we suspect will go lower in this $32,000 claimer for sophomore fillies.  Drawn comfortably outside, the Cerin-trained filly is raised three notches on the class ladder in her first off the claim after dismantling a $16,000 group with complete authority.  On pure numbers she beats this field and is an obvious short price rolling exotic single.


​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT. Grade: B

Use:  2-Sycamore Lane; 7-Allaboutmike

Forecast: Allaboutmike likes this turf course – both of his career wins have come down the hill – and the Miller-trained gelding seems properly spotted with this drop to his lowest level ever.  He’s won on the lead or from a stalking position, so Prat can play it by ear.  Sycamore Lane is a first-time gelding and seems likely to improve a bunch in this league.  We’ll use him in our rolling exotics but the main push goes to Allaboutmike.


​​RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 7-Calimonco Action; 8-Secret Offer

Forecast:  Secret Officer was well-beaten in her debut but faces an infinitely softer group today and should greatly appreciate the class relief.  She flashed pretty good speed down the hill before fading; today she tries the main track while facing a rather sluggish bottom-rung maiden claiming band.  Let’s put her on top but also include in our rolling exotics Calimonco Action, a fair fourth in a slightly stronger maiden claimer last month with a modest (but career-top) speed figure.  With another forward move today, she might make some noise.  In a race in which nothing is trustworthy, these are the two we’ll prefer, but feel free to spread as deep as you can afford to.


​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Jump the Tracks; 2-Midnight Soot

Forecast:  Midnight Soot rallied well to be a close third when facing a similar maiden  $30,000 claiming field in an extended sprint last month and today stretches out again to what probably is his preferred trip.  Talamo stays aboard and should have this D’Amato-trained son of Liaison along in time.  Jump the Tracks could be the controlling speed from the rail; he’s dropping to his lowest level ever, gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Ceballos, and has numbers that fit.  Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Midnight Soot


​​​RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 2-Fabozzi; 3-Ritzy A. P.

Forecast:  Ritzy A. P. got stopped cold at the quarter pole in the American Sakes last month and lost his best chance, so his fifth place finish (beaten five lengths) behind What A View actually is better than it looks on paper.  This is decidedly easier spot, so with clear sailing today the son of English Channel can return to winning form.  There’s value here at 6-1 on the morning line if you can get it.  Fabozzi makes his third start off a layoff, and with rising speed figures the Glatt-trained gelding is extremely dangerous and a “must use.”  Two of his three career wins have come over this turf course and today’s extra furlong shouldn’t be a bother. 


​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: C

Use: 6-Saint Dermot; 7-Awe; 8-Hackleton

Forecast:  This bottom-rung claiming miler is a total mess, and nothing would surprise us.  Spread as deeply as you can.  Saint Dermot is re-equipped with blinkers while facing his softest field ever, and if he has anything left he’ll be a major player.  Awe, first off the claim for Vallejo (very strong stats from a limited sample with this angle), has some back form that looks okay and may improve for his new connections.  Hackleton is drawn farther outside than we’d prefer but he just finished first in a similar affair (before being disqualified) and if he can turn in two alike he should be competitive right back.  Tread lightly here.


RACE 9: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: C+

Use: 1-Elevate; 4-Impression; 5-Amazon Cry; 7-Starting Bloc

Forecast:  Here’s yet another difficult affair, a maiden claimer over a mile on grass for older horses.  Starting Bloc, away since November and exiting a pair of straight maiden events, should fit with these; the son of More Than Ready lands Prat for a barn that has excellent stats with layoff runners.   Impression, in the money in his last seven starts, is overdue for a maiden win and has speed figures that are better than par for this level.  He’ll break through one of these days, maybe today.  Amazon Cry, second under similar conditions last month, won’t have to improve much to be a factor once again, so we’ll toss him in.  Elevate failed to make the course in his debut last fall and was stopped on; the son of Artie Schiller returns in a proper spot and has trained well enough to include at a bit price (15-1 morning line).


Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Sunday, May 13, 2018

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