The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
Sunday, May 20, 2018
RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Prince Earl; 5-Cool Your Jets
Forecast: Prince Earl has done some good work in the a.m. leading up to his debut, is bred for turf, and catches a moderate group of state-bred maidens in this downhill grass affair. The barn has superb stats with first-timers, so let’s put this Paddy O’Prado gelding on top. Cool Your Jets appears the best of the known element and is worth including as well. Third in his last pair with rapidly-rising speed figures, the son of Unusual Heat will be doing his best work from off the pace.
RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 3-Junior Gilliam; 5-Noble Nick
Forecast: Junior Gilliam ran out of room when second at 6/5 in a $12,500 claimer earlier this month but despite the one-level raise in class the son of Tribal Rule seems capable of making amends in his first-off-the-claim for Saldana. This extra furlong of today’s sprint should make the winning difference. Noble Nick takes a significant class drop and is shortening from a marathon to a sprint, his preferred trip. Drawn comfortably outside, the Zensational gelding should draft into an ideal pace-prompting position and have every chance.
RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Hit the Seam; 5-Sir Eddie
Forecast: Sir Eddie ran very well over this course and distance in his second career outing when second, beaten a half-length, last month, and with another forward move today the son of Square Eddie should earn his diploma. Hit the Seam, a willing third in the same race Sir Eddie exits, probably has less room to improve (this will be his seventh career start) but is worth including as a saver or a back-up.
RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Blaze’n Prospector; 6-Omdurman
Forecast: Blaze’n Prospector drops for the money run and should fire his best shot in his third start off a layoff. Pedroza will have him within striking range and then have every chance from the quarter pole home. Omdurman lands the outside draw in this abbreviated dash for bottom-rung claimers and is overdue for a win. He’ll be running on late. Both should be included in rolling exotic play; we’ll give the slight edge on top to Blaze’n Prospector.
RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Captain N. Barron; 5-Eleazar Warrior; 9-Our Tiger’s Boy
Forecast: A little will go a long way in this maiden $20,000 claiming sprint. Eleazar Warrior, with just two prior starts, has the most room to improve so we’ll put him on top. A strong second with a solid speed figures in a similar affair in mid-March, the Garcia-trained gelding has trained steadily since and should be part of the pace throughout. Captain N. Barron lands the rail and has the speed to get up inside and be a strong factor with a repeat of his race before last. Talamo stays aboard. Our Tiger’s Boy, in the money in his last three but always suspect under pressure in the final furlong, may stick for a piece of it and probably is worth including in rolling exotic play as a saver.
RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 1-R Cha Cha; 3-Cool Green; 7-Souter; 8-General Mach Four
Forecast: This is a difficult downhill turf sprint for restricted (Nw-2) $40,000 claimers; we’ll go four deep but otherwise pass the race. R Cha Cha, first off the claim for Miyadi, just missed under similar conditions over this course and distance last month while earning a career top speed figure. He’s strictly the one to beat, but his rail drawn is a bit of a concern. Souter, away since February of last year but training well for Glatt (strong stats with layoff runners), returns in a realistic spot and makes his first start as a gelding. He looks like a live item. Cool Green, a bit rusty in his comeback, should be fitter and sharper today for Desormeaux and exits a strong race. With any kind of forward move, he’s right there. General Mach Four, third in the same race R Cha Cha exits, is comfortably drawn outside and projects to be a strong pace factor throughout.
RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 3-Naughty Sophie; 9-Baby Brown
Forecast: This maiden $30,000 main track sprint for sophomore fillies appears to have two main contenders. Baby Brown, claimed out of her debut by the high percentage Morey outfit, was a solid runner-up after pressing the pace until deep stretch and has every right to improve with that effort behind her. The barn hits at 25% with this angle, so we’re expecting a forward move from this daughter of Big Brown. Naughty Sophia, also a good second in her only prior outing, adds blinkers for Miller, switches to Prat, and is actually a tad faster on speed figures than ‘Brown. They’re tough to separate so we’ll double the race in rolling exotic play.
RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Libby’s Tail; 6-Life of Illusion; 7-Conquest Flatterme
Forecast: We’ll triple the eighth race, a better-than-par first-level allowance sprint for fillies and mares. New York shipper Libby’s Tail seems intriguing; she makes her first start for the Baltas barn, gets Bejarano, and has speed figures back east that make her a solid fit in this league. Life of Illusion graduated in good style recently with a career top number, and with another forward move could easily score right back. She gets a considerable break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Caballos. Conquest Flatterme seeks her third straight score, and while she’s slower on numbers than the other two she deserves consideration due to her winning connections and a nice outside draw.
RACE 9: Post 4:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Well Developed; 9-Rye; 11-Ashleyluvssugar
Forecast: Ashleyluvssugar will outclass this field if ready; however, the work tab appears a bit light and the extreme outside post from this distance does him no favors. The veteran Eurton-trained gelding is a “must use” but we’ll go deeper for protection. Rye likes to win and likes this course, and despite this rather dramatic turn back in trip can be dangerous from off the pace with some help up front. Well Developed is a lightly-raced but talented gelding with dangerous speed and a nice inside draw. He’s improving with each start, and with another forward move should be very competitive while on or near the lead throughout.