Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Sunday, May 6, 2018

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Sunday, May 6, 2018

RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 4-My Aunt Tillie; 5-Streak of Luck

Forecast:  My Tillie took awhile to break her maiden and since has become a fairly dependable sort, finishing a good second in each of her last two outings at this level.  She’ll be in the thick of it again today.  Streak of Luck, fourth in the same race ‘Tillie exits,  has a nice stalking style and should have every chance in a race without much speed.  Let’s try to get past the opener using just these two in rolling exotic play.

 

​​RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 2-Rprettyboyfloyd; 5-Moonlight Blue

Forecast: This $12,500 middle distance claimer drew just five runners, so there’s not much value to be found.  Moonlight Blue is 6/5 on the morning line for the red hot Cerin barn following a facile victory in a restricted (Nw-2) seller for this price and should be tough right back.  Rprettyboyfloyd likes to run second or third (19 times) more than he likes to win (four times) but was claimed by a good barn, and despite being out of jail is raised in class in a sign of confidence.  We’ll use both in our rolling exotics while preferring Moonlight Blue on top.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 3-Irish Cream N Kafe; 5-Yallla

Forecast:  Irish Cream N Kafe is an improving sort, and with another forward move today should be capable of graduating from a modest bottom-rung maiden claimer for fillies and mares.  The shortening to six furlongs should be beneficial.  Yalla has had 10 chances and may not be one to count on, but she has speed figures that fit and is a major player pretty much by default.  We’ll prefer ‘Kafe on top but use both in our rolling exotics.

 

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT. Grade: B+

Use:  4-An Eddie Surprise; 8-Sekhmet’s Revenge

Forecast:  Sekhmet’s Revenge is progressing with racing, having just broken her maiden for a $50,000 tag over a mile on this course.  She’s shortening up to a Hillside sprint but should have the proper stalking style to take advantage of her comfortable draw, so another forward move is likely.  There’s some value her at her morning line of 4-1`if you can get it.  An Eddie Surprise, second in her last pair over this course and distance, has rising speed figures and clearly is the one to beat. ‘Revenge will be the better price so we’ll put her on top and also try her in the straight pool.

 

​​RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Irish Dame; 6-Devil’s Beauty

Forecast:  Devil’s Beauty returns to her claim level, is comfortably drawn outside, hails from a high percentage outfit, and is a solid fit on numbers.  She’s 6/5 on the morning line and may go lower.  Irish Dame can be used on a ticket or two; she’s a class dropper with two wins from three starts over the Santa Anita main track and could fire a big shot fresh.  The barn has decent stats with this angle).

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 3-Venue; 8-Paprika

Forecast:  Paprika was second as the favorite in a similar maiden state-bred affair over the Hillside course last month; a repeat of that effort today should be good enough.  The debuting Venue represents stranger danger and is worth tossing in as well.  Her work tab looks okay and with Kris S. on the bottom of her pedigree she should like the lawn.

 

​​​RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 3-Val Dori; 7-Fault

Forecast:  Fault may have found a home on on the main track; she won the Santa Margarita Stakes-G1 with complete authority and should have enough early pace again today to set things up for her closing kick.  Vale Dori is more than good enough on her best day, but this will be her first start since July and it’s possible that she’s a race away from being cranked up.  We’ll go with Fault on top but use both in our rolling exotics.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 1-Achira; 6-Helen Hillary

Forecast: Helen Hillary has trained like she’s fit and ready in her first outing since last fall, and looks extremely well-meant in this first-level allowance turf affair for fillies and mares.  The D’Amato barn has solid stats with layoff runners and this daughter of Harlan’s Holiday won her debut, so you know she can fire fresh.  Achira is lightly-raced and improving, lands the good rail, and projects to be the controlling speed.  He numbers have risen with every outing, so she’s the logical favorite and one to beat.

 

RACE 9: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 2-Jerry’s Thunder; 3-Duke of Fallbrook; 7-Surfside Sunset

Forecast: We’ll spread the finale, a maiden $20,000 seven furlong claimer.  Surfside Sunset is re-equipped with blinkers, turns back in trip, gets weight off with the switch to bug boy Espinoza, and plummets to the bottom.  This should be his winning level.  Duke of Fallbrook, a willing third vs. similar last month, gets an extra furlong to work with today and should be running on late.  Jerry’s Thunder is a class dropper with some early speed and may get brave if he can shake loose early.

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Sunday, May 6, 2018

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