Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Wagering Strategies for October 1, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Sunday, October 1, 2017

RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 2-Pistol Packin Rose; 4-Tink’s Twirl

Forecast: Pistol Packin Rose just missed at 16-1 in a similar first-level affair at Del Mar last month and not much more will be needed to land her in the winner’s circle. Van Dyke should have her in an ideal second flight position, ready to pounce when called upon. Tink’s Twirl has steadily rising speed figures and is lightly raced with further improvement in her. She, too, should draft into a good stalking position and have every chance. Let’s try to get by using just these two in a typical grass grab bag for optional claiming sophomore fillies.

 

​​RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: C

Use: 1-Forbidden Command; 5-Papercoversrock; 6-Optimistic Outcome

Forecast: In the second race, bottom-rung claiming fillies and mares meet over a mile on the main track in a race that should be viewed with caution. We’ll use three and hope that’s enough. Papercoversrock and Forbidden Command finished one-two in a similar affair at Del Mar and should be in the thick of it again, though the former must pick up five lbs. while latter adds three. Both have run well over the Santa Anita main track in the past and are tough to separate once again. We’ll also toss in Optimistic Outcome, in the frame in 17 of 21 career starts and a logical contender despite finishing a well-beaten second as the favorite in her California debut at Los Alamitos last month. If you can afford to go deeper, go right ahead.

​RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: X

Use: 1-Patricia’s Ring; 3-Thirteen Squared

Forecast: Patricia’s Ring is a first-timer that has impressed in the morning and appears to be a live first-timer from the Gaines barn in a below average field for the level. This stable rarely wins with debut runners and the rail post is no help, but this daughter of Malibu Moon surely won’t have to be a world-beater to handle this task. However, at 6/5 on the morning line, there’s little value to be found. Thirteen Squared probably can’t beat a good filly but she does have the benefit of a prior run when finishing a distant third in a highly rated race. She’s clearly the best of the known element and may be worth using as a saver.

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 2-Tonahutu; 10-Instant Reflex

Forecast: Instant Reflex ran away and hid in her debut sprinting on turf at Del Mar while looking like a high quality filly. Today she tackles tougher and stretches out to a mile from a disadvantageous extreme outside post, but she might be the type that can take this more difficult assignment in stride. The daughter of Quality Road probably can make the lead if she wants it badly enough, but we suspect Espinoza will employ stalking tactics similar to how she performed in her only outing. Tonahutu was extremely well meant in her U.S. debut, rallying strongly but missing by a nose vs. similar at Del Mar last month. If she can turn in two alike, the Blacker-trained Irish-bred 3-year-old may be difficult to contain late in a race that should have an honest pace at the very least.

​RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 4-Flip the Coin Jan; 8-Craft Brew

Forecast: Flip the Coin Jan and Craft Brew exit the same race, a maiden $50,000 main track miler at Del Mar and both ran well with the likelihood of further improvement. ‘Jan is a first-off-the-claim for O’Neill (solid stats with this angle) and has earned numbers in two of his first three starts that are better than par for this level. The son of Trappe Shot is strictly the one to beat. Craft Brew was almost six lengths back of ‘Jan last time out but adds blinkers today for Cerin (strong stats with this angle) and may be the most dangerous of the closers. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics and then press with extra tickets keying Flip the Coin Jan on top.

​​​RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: C

Use: 1-Raven Creek; 4-My Boo; 6-Gringo Star; 7-Powerful Thirst

Forecast: This maiden state-bred sprint for juveniles is inscrutable; we’ll go four deep in our rolling exotics but otherwise pass the race. Raven Creek missed at 6/5 in a similar affair at Del Mar but adds blinkers today and has a legitimate chance to make amends. From the rail he has no option but to bust out and go. My Boo, nosed out in his debut in the same race Raven Creek just finished third in, finished fastest but ran out of room; today he gets an extra half furlong to work with, so with any kind of forward move he’ll be hard to contain. Gringo Star and Powerful Thirst (first-time blinkers) are a tad slower on speed figures than either ‘Creek or Boo but the former finished a game runner-up in his debut and is likely to improve while the latter retains Prat, lands the cozy outside post, and gets blinkers for the first time.

​​RACE 7: Post 3:33 PT.  Grade: C+

Use: 1-Itsinthepost; 8-Hunt

Forecast: Hunt and Itsinthepost were the one-two finishers in the Del Mar Handicap in mid-August but a case could be made that the latter, who encountered traffic trouble on the turn and then flew home but ran out of room, was best. Both geldings have had plenty of success over the Santa Anita turf course but neither has proven winning form at this 12-furlong trip. It seems likely that the winner will be one or the other, with trip – as it did last time – the deciding factor. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics but otherwise not get involved.

​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:04 PT.  Grade: X

Single: 1-Anonymity

Forecast: Anonymity crushed maidens in her debut at Del Mar while earning a stakes quality speed figure and anything close to that effort today makes her a winner right back. She’ll have to leave cleanly from the rail and handle some additional heat but the daughter of Tapit shouldn’t be terribly inconvenienced. She’s a short price, no value rolling exotic single.

 

RACE 9: Post 4:37 PT. GRADE: B+

Single: 7-Rye Patch

Forecast: Rye Patch beat a similar field at Del Mar with a stalking trip; today, in a race without any real speed, the veteran gelding looks like a logical gate-to-wire candidate to repeat. He’s picking up five lbs. today but retains Bejarano, has a prior win over the course, and a very healthy recent work pattern for the high percentage Baltas barn. At 3-1 on the morning line he’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Wagering Strategies for October 1, 2017

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