Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Wagering Strategies for Sept. 29, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Friday, September 29, 2017

RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 6-Warren’s Fandango; 9-Amazon Cry

Amazon Cry earned a career top speed figure when a closing fourth vs. straight maidens last time out and this return to the maiden claiming ranks looks like a logical winning move. The son of Street Cry has never run particularly well over this turf course but could be a better type now based on his steadily improving pattern. Warren’s Fandango was nosed out two runs back over this course vs. similar and, like Amazon Cry, earned a career top number when fourth vs. stronger company in his most recent outing. Bejarano got to know him last time out and stays aboard.

 

​​RACE 2: Post 1:29 PT. Grade: X

Single: 2-Freddies Dream

Freddies Dream, claimed in his last pair and now in the Mullins barn, was beaten as the favorite vs. similar at Del Mar earlier this month but actually ran a winning race in defeat and earned a legitimate speed figure while more than five clear of the others. Bug boy Roman stays aboard and should have this veteran gelding along in time, but at 8/5 on the morning line there’s really not a whole lot of value to be found. Let’s use him as a rolling exotic single.

​​

RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: X

Single: 7-Airfoil

Airfoil, first off the claim for Glatt (excellent stats with this angle), has been first or second in 11 of 23 career starts over the Santa Anita main track and drops to his lowest level ever while also landing the cozy outside post. If he has one good one left, he’ll handle this modest bottom-rung group, but since he’s 2-1 on the morning line and likely to go lower, it might be prudent to await better wagering opportunities later in the card.

 

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:29 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 3-Divisor; 5-Fregosi; 7-Conqueror

There are lots of question marks in this maiden claiming main track miler, so tread lightly. Conqueror is a 10-race maiden and certainly not one to trust, but the Cerin-trained gelding has a race over this track and distance three races back that charts very well, and this drop into the maiden $40,000 ranks might prove to be the winning move. The switch to Prat is another positive factor. Divisor is a first-time gelding facing his easies foes to date and is likely to improve for D’Amato. His lack of tactical speed hardly inspires confidence but on pure numbers he’s a fit, so we’ll use him. Fregosi is re-equipped with blinkers, gets Lasix, and will be trying dirt for the first time. He’s another with competitive figures (albeit from turf races) and in a soft spot probably is worth including on a ticket or two.

​RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Warrior’s Lullaby; 3-Colormemoney; 4-American Currency

We’ll use three in this maiden $50,000 claiming sprint for juveniles without any great conviction. Colormemoney and American Currency exit a productive race at Del Mar and are the main contention in a moderate affair. The former showed a bit of talent when second in his debut at Indiana Downs and then produced a significant forward move on numbers in his first start locally for the Hess barn, pressing the pace and staying on gamely to be second. Not much more will be needed today. ‘Currency had every chance but weakened late to wind up fourthin that same affair; however, the Truman barn has superior stats with second-time starters so this son of Exchange Rate and should be fitter and tougher today. Warrior’s Lullaby exits a much stronger straight maiden sprint in which he earned a decent number when a distant third to Tatters to Riches at Del Mar. This is a justified class drop, so improvement is probable.

​​​RACE 6: Post 3:31 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 1-Iron Alex; 5-Tell Me a Story; 7-Gentrified; 8-One I’m Running To

This sixth race is another spread affair, a $25,000 claiming event restricted to 3-year-olds. Gentrified drops well below his claim level, and after chasing much tougher foes in his last pair should regain his best form today. On pure numbers he’s highly competitive at this level and with a couple of nice recent workouts over this track the Sadler-trained gelding seems primed for a major effort. Additionally, he may be most effective in extended sprints such as this. One I’m Running To moves up a couple of notches on the claiming ladder after beating older $16,000 nw-2 types at Del Mar in clever fashion. The number was okay and should make him competitive right back over a track he’s been known to like. The outside draw allows Roman the option of popping and going or stalking and pouncing. Tell Me a Story adds blinkers for the first time, drops to his lowest level ever, returns to dirt, and switches to Prat. These should be his friends. Iron Alex was out of his element routing on turf vs. tougher in his local bow but his debut win at Lone Star Park wasn’t too bad, so we’ll toss him in on a ticket or two as well.

​​RACE 7: Post 4:01 PT.  Grade: C+

Use: 1-Ok Doll; 2-Salsita; 8-Arethusa

The seventh is a grass grab bag and is another difficult affair that offers several possibilities. Ok Doll always has preferred the Santa Anita turf course and should be prominent throughout and have every chance from her good inside draw. Bejarano stays aboard and knows her well. Salsita is an old pro in good form for Hollendorfer and should be heard from in the final furlong.  Arethusa has yet to win in the U.S. and may not be one to trust, but her Del Mar efforts were solid and she remains protected by Mullins, who claimed her for $32,000 two runs back. These are the three we’ll prefer but feel free to spread deeper if you find the need.

​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:31 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 5-Jungle Warfare; 6-Xten; 7-Holy Ghost

Jungle Warfare has been facing some very fast colts in his sprints and should thoroughly enjoy this stretch out to two-turns. The son of Animal Kingdom removes blinkers, switches to Smith, and seems the solid choice. Xten may have been best when missing in a photo at Del Mar and has the benefit of experience at this trip. With another forward move the son of Eskendreya will be right there again. Holy Ghost has the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch out pattern and switches to Desormeaux. He drew the rail in both of his sprints and ran better than the lines will show. He’s a “must use” at 6-1 on the morning line.

 

RACE 9: Post 5:01 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 2-Tribalist; 4-Om; 7-Guns Loaded

Downhill course specialist Guns Loaded may have been a tad rusty when a close fifth despite a wide trip in the Green Flash Handicap at Del Mar last month (it was his first start in 11 months) but should be much fitter and sharper today. The O’Neill barn has superior stats with second-off-layoff runners and this hard-knocking gelding, a three-time winner over this course and distance, should be primed for a huge performance. Bejarano always has gotten the most run out of him and stays aboard. Tribalist had tons of trouble when winning the Green Flash and certainly must be respected right back, though there’s a strong possibility he’s more effective at Del Mar and than he is here. Also, for whatever it’s worth, there’s a four-pound weight shift today favoring Guns Loaded. Om ran arguably the race of his life when just missing in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint under these conditions last year. There wasn’t much wrong with his third place effort in the Del Mar Mile Handicap last month, and today he’s adding blinkers for the first time and making a jockey switch to Van Dyke. In the money in 15 of 18 career starts, the son of Munnings always has to be respected.

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Wagering Strategies for Sept. 29, 2017

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