Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Friday, March 12, 2021
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 4-Sugary; 7-Clearly Gone
Forecast: We’re handicapping this race for grass, but rain on Friday could force a surface switch. Sugary just trounced a slightly lesser field over this course and distance and will have an excellent chance to score again if she can turn in two alike. She’s won back-to-back races in the past and two of her six wins came under K. Desormeaux, who takes over for the suspended U. Rispoli. Eight-years-old now but with only 23 race on her resume, the M. Jones-trained mare obviously has her problems but in her present form she should be primed for another major effort. Clearly Gone returns to her claim level after finishing a solid second vs. $32,000 foes while well clear of the rest last month. The P. Miller-trained mare projects to enjoy a comfortable second flight trip and then have her chance from the quarter pole home. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.
RACE 2: Post: 1:03 PT Grade: X
Single: 6-Dr. Hoffman
Forecast: Dr. Hoffman has much going for him in this bottom-rung maiden $20,000 main track miler for older horses. Back at his claim level after being stopped on last summer by his new connections, the P. Miller-trained gelding shows a steady, healthy series of workouts at San Luis Rey Downs that should have him fit enough plus speed figures from last year that are good enough to win against this group. With leading rider F. Prat taking the call (37% for this stable with a massive ROI), the son of Alternation should be along in time as a rolling exotic single.
RACE 3: Post: 1:35 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-On Mars; 4-Laura’s Light
Forecast: This race was carded for grass, and we’ve handicapped it as such, but the Friday weather is volatile, so we’ll passif there is a surface switch. Graded stakes winner Laura’s Light makes her seasonal bow vs. second-level allowance competition in her first outing since August and the P. Miller-trained filly should outclass this stronger-than-par field. Capable of dominating on the front end or stalking and pouncing if the pace flow dictates, the daughter of Constitution won her debut and also shows a victory following a two month layoff so the evidence suggests she’ll fire a big shot fresh. On Mars, first or second in four of six races over the Santa Anita turf course, is guaranteed a ground-saving trip from her rail post position and with some help up front should be heard from late. Beaten a neck when runner-up vs. similar last time out while earning a career top speed figure, the daughter of Vronsky has trained well since, retains regular rider M. Smith, and hopefully will lay a little closer to the pace than she usually does and not give herself too much to do.
RACE 4: Post: 2:08 PT Grade: X
Single: Missy P.
Forecast: Missy P., a full-sister to the top class sprinter Mia Mischief, has done everything in the morning like a filly with similar speed, class, and ability for trainer R. Mandella. Drawn comfortably outside in this abbreviated maiden sprint for fillies and mares, the 3-year-old daughter of Into Mischief lands F. Prat and will be an extremely short price to graduate at first asking. Let’s use her as a no-value rolling exotic single but otherwise pass the race.
RACE 5: Post: 2:40 PT Grade: B+
Use: 5-Kakistocracy; 7-Burnin Turf
Forecast: First-level allowance older horses bred in California compete over a mile on turf, but there is a forecast of rain, so if the race is transferred to the main track we’ll pass. Kakistocracy is worth giving another chance to after failing to mount a challenge when well-meant in a similar affair last month. The C. Gaines-trained gelding tries a jockey switch to T. Baze and hopefully will receive the type of aggressive ride that we suspect he’ll respond to favorably. The son of Point of Entry continues to impress in a.m. drills, and with a prior win over this course at this distance the lightly-raced 5-year-old should be able to produce his best stuff. Additionally the projected pace flow seems likely to compliment his late-running style. Burnin Turf is progressing with experience. His speed figures have risen in each of his four career starts, and after missing by a half-length when third vs. similar last time out the son of Acclamation retains F. Prat and is the likely choice and one to beat. Both should be included in rolling exotic play; Kakistocracy will be the better price of the two so we’ll prefer him on top.
RACE 6: Post: 3:12 PT Grade: B
Use: 3-Rather Nosy; 4-Flat Out Joy
Forecast: Back on dirt and dropping into the claiming ranks, Rather Nosy finds favorable conditions for a return to winning form in this extended sprint for restricted (nw-3) $35,000 fillies and mares. In the frame in 10 of 11 career starts over the Santa Anita main track, the M. Puype-trained daughter of Majesticperfection switches to F. Prat, adds blinkers, and is long overdue for a return to the winner’s circle. Flat Out Joy, away two months but sporting a healthy series of recent works, is another that shows an excellent record over the local dirt strip (never off the board in five starts) and projects to be forwardly placed throughout and then have every chance when the pressure is turned on. She’s a fit on speed figures and has the proper style for this seven furlong distance. Let’s try to get by using just these two in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Rather Nosy.
RACE 7: Post: 3:45 PT Grade: B+
Use: 1-Witch Moon; 8-Disappearing Act
Forecast: This race may come off the turf due to the expected rain on Friday. Tread lightly if it does. Witch Moon may have been a bit rusty when a willing fourth vs. similar over a mile on grass earlier this month but the daughter of Malibu Moon can be expected to move forward considerably with that effort behind her and this stretch out to a 10-furlong trip. A couple of recent sharp training track drills provides evidence that she’s primed and ready, and from her favorable inside post position that will ensure a ground-saving trip the P. D’Amato-trained filly has a chance to pull off a mild surprise. Disappearing Act logically is the one to beat. F. Prat understandably jumps off Witch Moon to maintain the mount on this R. Baltas-trained filly, who was a strong runner-up in early January and gets an extra furlong to work with today. The daughter of Magician is bred to improve with distance and experience and is the top figure entrant in the race, so she’s sure to receive plenty of play. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.
RACE 8: Post: 4:16 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Canadian Pride; 4-I Will Not
Forecast: The finale is a contentious first-level allowance main track sprint offering several possibilities. We’ll try to get by using just two, but if you feel the need to spread deeper, go right ahead. Canadian Pride is back sprinting where he belongs, and the P. Eurton-trained colt earned a career top speed figure when graduating over this main track three runs back during the fall season. A repeat of that effort today – based strictly on speed figures – will be good enough to win and a healthy recent series of works, including a bullet five furlongs (:59 flat, fastest of 30) 11 days ago should have the P. Eurton-trained son of Creative Cause right on edge. I Will Not won a Cal-bred race at this condition last time out and today tackles open company. The four-year-old colt will need to improve his speed figures but after earning a career top number last time out the son of Square Eddie could easily step forward again. If the leaders go too fast and compromise each other he’ll be in the right spot to launch a late bid.