Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Lalic; 3-Win Often; 4-Freedom Lass
Forecast: Freedom Lass, away since November, has trained quite well for her return and is likely to fire a big shot off the bench. Though primarily a middle distance performer throughout her career, the M. Puype-trained filly should be well-suited by this turn back in trip. Win Often, away for 15 months, is another that appears live off a layoff. She’s run well over this course in the past and has done some good work in the a.m. for an outfit that generally does quite well with layoff runners. Lalic has the proper style for this extended sprint trip and has further improvement in her after producing a good late kick to beat maiden claimers in March with a decent number. These are tougher, but F. Prat stays aboard and will have her rolling late.
RACE 2: Post: 1:37 PT Grade: B+
Single: 2-Big City Lights
Forecast: Big City Lights has trained like a good thing for his debut and hails from a barn that usually has its juveniles fit and ready first crack out of the box. The son of Mr. Big is a good-sized colt with plenty of speed, and if he breaks with his field he should be able to outrun this field. At 8/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower, he is a logical rolling exotic single.
RACE 3: Post: 2:09 PT Grade: C+
Use: 3-Gypsy Blu; 6-Lavender
Forecast: Gypsy Blu drops again in class to her lowest level ever. If she has one good one left she will beat this $25,000 claiming field, but at age seven she is clearly on the downside of her career. It’s been a long time since she’s won a race, so we’ll consider the class drop reasonable and legitimate. Lavender is back sprinting where she appears to be most comfortable and a repeat of her race before last makes her the one to fear most. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics in a race that really does not offer much wagering value.
RACE 4: Post: 2:45 PT Grade: C+
Use: 2-Summer Fun; 5-El Centenario
Forecast: Summer Fun, freshened since November, returns in a proper spot and appears the one to beat in this modest maiden $20,000 claiming sprint at seven furlongs. His recent workouts look pretty solid, his style suggests he’ll like the trip and the son of Smiling Tiger will get a weight break with the presence of bug girl J. Pyfer in the saddle. El Centenario has numbers that make him a threat and should produce a forward move in his third start off a layoff. This trainer/jockey combo (Wong, Cedillo) has proven to be lethal. We will include both in rolling exotic play with Summer Fun getting a slight edge on top.
RACE 5: Post: 3:17 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Team Merchants; 5-Mohawk King; 6-Cherubic Factor
Forecast: Cherubic Factor was a visually pleasing winner breaking his maiden sprinting on turf in late March and has looked very good in the morning since. The P. Eurton-trained colt should settle into a soft stalking position outside and then have every chance to blast home when it counts. Mohawk King looks like a talented European invader based on his English form and his local workouts. He won his debut at Ascot as a two-year-old in July so we know he can fire fresh, and we’re expecting a major effort from this well-bred son of Siyouni. Team Merchants makes his sophomore debut for O’Neill and has a work tab that should have him fit and ready. The son of Nyquist graduated in smart fashion at Saratoga last summer before being stopped on, and if he returns as well as he left he will be tough to beat. We will include all three in our rolling exotics and then have an few extra tickets pressing with Cherubic Factor on top.
RACE 6: Post: 3:49 PT Grade: B+
Single: 8-Just Distorted
Forecast: Just Distorted finished a strong runner-up in her debut in late February to Soothsay, who came back to win the Santa Anita Oaks-G1 in her next start. The daughter of Distorted Humor was well-backed at 6/5 in that race but may have been a bit short. She doesn’t need to produce a forward move to beat this field even though she has every right to be fitter and sharper with that effort behind her, so at 8/5 on the morning line from her cozy outside draw, the J. Wong-trained filly is a logical rolling exotic single.
RACE 7: Post: 4:21 PT Grade: B+
Forecast: This mile turf affair for fillies and mares is loaded with front speed and need-the-lead types, so let’s zero in on the best of the closers. Beguiled, always most effective when held up early and allowed to run late, gets an ideal pace scenario to compliment her style and should be along in time under top grass rider U. Rispoli. She continues to impress in her morning drills for P. D’Amato and has won over this turf course in the past. There is good wagering value at or near her morning line of 3-1 in the win pool and as a rolling exotic single.
RACE 8: Post: 4:53 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Ole Silver; 7-Warrior’s Moon
Forecast: Warrior’s Moon, freshened since October, returns in the proper spot and has been training like she’s better now than when we last saw her. The P. Eurton-trained filly has a good stalking style and should be able to fold over and secure a decent position in a race that doesn’t have a whole lot of early speed signed on. She’s always been most effective when fairly close to the pace, so if A. Cedillo let’s her roll from the gate she can be just where she needs to be. The main question is the main track – she’s been primarily a turf runner throughout her career – so we’ll protect on our rolling exotic ticket with Ole Silver, a potential pace setter from her inside draw. The P. D’Amato-trained filly was wiped out at the start in her most recent outing last week and wasn’t persevered with, so she is wheeled back on short rest while retaining bug girl J. Pyfer. We liked her last week when she had no chance; hopefully she can avoid early trouble and show what she is capable of.
RACE 9: Post: 5:25 PT Grade: B
Single: 8-Lava Lane
Forecast: Lava Lane ran well in her debut last summer at Del Mar when finishing a willing third in a turf sprint taken by next-out winner Althea Gibson but then was stopped on and turned out. She returns in a modest state-bred filly and mare maiden sprint while showing a series of good works at Los Alamitos, so we suspect the P. D’Amato-trained daughter of Unusual Heat is spot on. U. Rispoli, who was aboard her last year, rides her back and should have her along in time as the 9/5 morning line favorite and rolling exotic single.