Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Saratoga
Friday, August 2, 2019
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Today’s Day Makers: View Video
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Today’s Bullet Drills: View Video
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RACE 1: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Ode; 8-Justice of War
Forecast: Justice of War shows up in a modest claimer for the first time and if healthy the S. Asmussen-trained colt should earn his diploma. Off the track since early May, the Oaklawn Park shipper by way of Churchill Downs is comfortably drawn outside and should fold into a nice stalking trip and have every chance from the head of the lane to the wire. His recent work tab in solid, healthy, and encouraging, so let’s put the son of Strong Mandate – originally a $550,00 2-year-old in training purchase – on top in this maiden $20,000 sprint. Ode has decent recent form at this level ships in from Keeneland following a couple five furlong bullet drills. He’s not particularly fast on figures but has enough early speed to be within striking range and free of trouble. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Justice of War.
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RACE 2: Post 1:36 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 3-Cool as You Like; 6-Promise Me Roses
Forecast: We’ll double this five-runner restricted (nw-3) six furlong claimer in rolling exotic play while preferring Cool as You Like on top but also including Promise Me Roses. Both have the same pattern; they’re dropping off a claim from $20,000 to $14,000. Cool as You Like, away since March but returning in a logical spot for Rice (27% first off the claim), won impressively over this main track last year and has several back numbers that are much better than par for this level. This stable also has good stats with layoff runners so we’ll operate under the assumption that the veteran daughter of Macho Uno is fit enough for a good effort. Promise Me Roses, now in the Gullo barn (good stats with the first-off-the-claim angle) has been freshened since late May and has a light work tab (just two easy three furlong breezes) in recent weeks, so her condition is a question, but in a race without much speed signed on the daughter of Lemon Drop Kid should be in a good stalking spot outside without having to spend too much early energy. We’ll have a few extra tickets keying Cool as You Like on top but use both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 3: Post 2:12 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 3-Light in the Sky
Forecast: With the scratching of morning line favorite Cake, this race sets up nicely for Light in the Sky,who finished a distant fourth (and appeared to intensely dislike the track) after a rugged start in an off-the-turf muddy-track affair in her debut last month. With More than Ready on the bottom side of her pedigree she’s certainly bred to improve on lawn for the L. Rice barn, which hits at a terrific 30% with second-time starters. We’re expecting the daughter of Tale of the Cat to improve dramatically and will make her a strong straight play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 4: Post 2:48 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Macagone; 4-Storm Prophet; 8-Way Early
Forecast: Macagone failed at 3/5 in a starter’s $16,000 event at Monmouth Park in June, but off a brief freshening the son of Artie Schiller should be capable of making amends in this $40,000 inner turf miler for older horses. The J. Servis-trained gelding is guaranteed a good ground-saving trip from the rail over a course he’s won on in the past and may benefit from the switch to J. Lezcano. Storm Prophet, first off the $40,000 claim by R. Atras (excellent 28% with this angle), always has much preferred to run second or third rather than win (3 wins, 17 placings) and probably isn’t one to trust, but he returns to grass, picks up Santana, and has enough tactical speed to be within striking range and have his chance. Way Early hasn’t been out since being overmatched and finishing far back in the Hollywood Derby-G1 last November but the Weaver barn is solid with layoff runners and this Tizway gelding won his only prior start over the Saratoga turf course in good fashion last year. The works have been okay, nothing great, so we’ll use him on a ticket or two as a saver or a back-up.
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RACE 5: Post 3:28 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 6-Chief Know It All; 7-Beyond the Green; 9-Planet Trailblazer
Forecast: Here’s another open affair that requires a spread. Planet Trailblazer, popular at the claim box of late, now finds himself in the M. Miceli barn (good 20% stat with the first-off-the-claim angle) and with his best effort he can win this $12,500 claiming nine furlong main track affair. The son of Pioneering prefers to settle in the second flight and make a run, but exiting a series of shorter races he’s liable to find himself in a good pace prompting or stalking position off slow early fractions. Beyond the Green is a razor sharp Finger Lakes shipper, having won three of his last four starts. He’s a little light in the speed figure department but in his present form the C. Engelhart-trained gelding should be forwardly placed throughout and have his shot when it matters. Chief Know It All, a first-time gelding in his first start since being claimed for $32,000 in early June at Churchill Downs, plummets in class as if to indicate he has some issues, but the Kenneally barn hits with a remarkable 39 percent with this angle because of its aggressive placement with its claiming stock. The former multiple graded stakes winner could easily find this modest group within his range. These are the three we’ll be using in our rolling exotics; if you feel the need to add a few more, go right ahead.
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RACE 6: Post 4:03 ET. Grade: B
Single: 5-Bemma’s Boy
Forecast: With the off-the-program scratching of The Green Mo’ster, this $35,000 restricted claimer looks made to order for Bemma’s Boy. Second off the claim for M. Maker, the Into Mischief gelding finished a willing third under these conditions over a mile on turf here last month, and with an extra half-furlong to work with today we’re expecting J. Ortiz to have him along in time as a straight play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 7: Post 4:39 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 3-English Bee; 5-Casa Creed; 8-Moon Colony
Forecast: Moon Colony found himself on the lead in the Belmont Derby-G1 – not where he wants to be – and got run over when the real racing began at the head of the lane. Much more effective when held up early and allowed to run late, the Uncle Mo colt has a good look with a repeat of his Penn Mile score two races back. English Bee looked sharp winning a turf stakes on Preakness day but then was unplaced in the same race Moon Colony exits after racing wide and failing to land a blow. He switches to Castellano and should settle in the second flight and then launch his bid from there. Casa Creed fits with these off his best race and is worth tossing in somewhere as well. This group seems to take turns beating one another, so tread lightly.
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RACE 8: Post 5:15 ET. Grade: X
Single: 2-Tom’s d’Etat
Forecast: Tom’s d’Etat, in the frame in a couple of recent graded stakes races at Churchill Downs, faces softer listed stakes competition today in the Alydar S. over nine furlongs on the main track and looks well-spotted to regain his winning form. A perfect two-for-two over the Saratoga main track, the son of Smart Strike is reunited with Rosario, who was aboard in a nine-length allowance win that earned a career top 106 Beyer speed figure here a couple of years ago. Lightly raced with six wins in 12 starts and with a pace-pressing style that should put him on or near the lead throughout, the A. Stall-trained horse may be too short to play in the straight pool (he’s 7/5 on the morning line) but can be used as a rolling exotic single.
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RACE 9: Post 5:51 ET. Grade: X
Single: 5-Concrete Rose
Forecast: Concrete Rose has won five of six career starts, including her last three in graded stakes company, most recently in the Belmont Oaks-G1 last month. The daughter of Twirling Candy continues to hold her edge in the morning for Arnold, retains Leparoux, who fits her perfectly, and is a versatile sort who can adjust and adapt to any pace scenario. At a very short price that will preclude a wager in the straight play, we can still make her a no-value rolling exotic single.
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RACE 10: Post 6:25 ET. Grade: B-
Single: 7-Mrs. Orb
Forecast: With off-the-program scratching of Tarallucci, this maiden claiming state-bred $40,000 turf claimer for fillies and mares should belong to Mrs. Orb, although as a 10-race maiden she’s certainly not entirely trustworthy. The M. Miceli-trained filly has hit the board in six of 10 career starts and just finished second in a similar event last month at Belmont Park. She switches to J. Ortiz, should be forwardly placed throughout, and may be able to finally break through with only slight improvement. In a race that is thoroughly uninspiring, we can make her a rolling exotic single, or simply pass the race.
