Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Saratoga
Sunday, August 11, 2019
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Today’s Day Makers: View Video
Today’s Bullet Drills: View video
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RACE 1: Post 1:02 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 2-One Eyed Jack; 4-Majority Rules
Forecast: Majority Rules didn’t quite step forward as much as we thought he would when a runner-up over this track and distance in his second career start last month, beaten four lengths while only slightly improving his Beyer speed figure. If he’s going to develop into a decent type of colt, he’ll show it today. His C. Brown-trained stable mate One Eyed Jack, an okay third in his debut sprinting at Belmont Park in late June, shows essentially the same pattern that ‘Rules did last time out, stretching out to nine furlongs off a single one-turn prep. As we always prefer the two-sprints-and-a-stretch out angle, especially over nine furlongs on this main track, we’re a bit concerned that the son of Uncle Mo might need one more before showing his true capabilities at this testing trip. In a race that really doesn’t offer much in the way of value, we’ll use both in our rolling exotics but otherwise sit it out.
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RACE 2: Post 1:22 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1a-Noble Thought; 8-Mo Maverick
Forecast: Noble Thought was overmatched at 43-1 in the Belmont Gold Cup-G2 over two miles in early June but these conditions should be much more to his liking and the Harlan’s Holiday gelding, always genuine and consistent when properly spotted, should return to top form for the M. Maker barn. Mo Maverick likely will fulfill his role as the controlling speed and on numbers could be tough to catch if he can relax on the front end without being pressured. This nine furlong trip might be stretching his limit but he’s been first or second in nine of 17 career starts and should have every chance to reproduce his best form given the projected race flow.
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RACE 3: Post 1:54 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 4-Windfall Profit; 7-Morning Gold; 8-Apurate; 9-Revelment
Forecast: Windfall Profit has trained like a very nice filly, and while Shug has modest stats with first-time starters and doesn’t use J. Rosario all that often, this daughter of Malibu Moon looks very much like a live item. A recent team turf work (July 19) in which she proved much best caught the eye, and she should be fit enough to fire a winning shot in what appears to be a fairly wide open affair. Morning Gold finished a close third despite a wide trip in a promising debut performance over this course and distance last month and has every right to step forward with that bit of experience behind her. Revelment is a daughter of English Channel, so it’s no surprise that she debuts in a turf router. She might be worth including on a ticket or two, as will Apurate, a daughter of Summer Front and therefore bred to improve on grass. She flashed some early speed in a dirt sprint last month and should be forwardly placed if not on the front end today. We’ll include all four in our rolling exotics and then press with extra tickets keying Windfall Profit.
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RACE 4: Post 2:45 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 5-Cheatham Hill; 7-Malibu Mischief; 10-Sharpin
Forecast: Malibu Mischief, first off the $25,000 claim for S. Asmussen, moves up a level following a desperate nose victory in early July at Belmont Park. We’re expecting the daughter of Goldencents to improve for her new connections and she appears sufficiently quick enough in this field to secure her coveted front-running trip. Sharpin drops below her claim level after fading in the mud vs. $75,000 foes last month. She’s a fit off her race before last and looks likely to draft into a comfortable stalking position outside and then have every chance to pounce when called upon. Cheatham Hill returns to dirt and shortens to a sprint after a failed two-turn experiment over the Saratoga grass earlier this meeting. The J. Servis-trained daughter of Bellamy Road seems the most dangerous of the mid-flight closing types and if ‘Mischief gets late, ‘Hill could be there to pick her up. We’ll spread the race using these three in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 5: Post 3:20 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-High Jingo; 2-Saratoga Treasure; 3-First Appeal
Forecast: First Appeal has enjoyed prior success over this turf course and has been especially effective at this five furlong trip. Freshened since mid-June and showing a sharp recent series of workouts, the B. Cox-trained daughter of First Defence retains J. Castellano and with good racing luck can be along in time. Saratoga Treasure, a perfect one-for-one over this course and distance, is another prototype late-running sprinter and should be heard from late. High Jingo draws the rail and prefers to be on the front-end, though she did score from mid-pack in her only prior five furlong sprint win, at Saratoga back in 2017. She’s a tad light in the speed figure department but hails from the high-percentage J. Servis and is worth using as a back-up, at least.
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RACE 6: Post 3:56 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 5-Secondary Market; 10-Mondaye Call
Forecast: Mondaye Call has done everything asked of her in the morning and this debuting daughter of Into Mischief gives every indication of being quality filly. She has plenty of speed but has been trained to rally from off the pace, so it’ll be interesting to see which strategy will be employed by her connections. We like here strongly on top but will save on a few tickets with another debut runner by Into Mischief, Secondary Market, a Monmouth Park shipper from the C. Brown barn. There’s nothing fancy on the tab, but this $275,000 weanling purchase shows a steady, consistent series of drills and probably wouldn’t be here if the barn didn’t think she’d be competitive.
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RACE 7: Post 4:32 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Graded On a Curve; 3-Cross Border; 6-Southern King
Forecast: Here’s a wide open first-level state-bred allowance turf affair that offers several possibilities. Cross Border has never been sharper and looked quite good beating a starter’s allowance field here last month with a career top speed figure, one that if repeated today should be good enough for a repeat score. The son of English Channel has excellent tactical speed to insure a good, clean trip, and today’s extra half-furlong shouldn’t be an issue at all. L. Saez stays aboard for M. Maker. Graded On a Curve is progressing steadily for C. Brown, breaking his maiden in his third career start while earning a career-top speed figure in late June at Belmont Park. The son of Noble Mission acts like he’ll continue to improve with experience and distance and will need to step forward again to handle this tougher assignment, but he may very well have it in him. I. Ortiz, Jr. knows him well and stays aboard. Southern King makes his first start since February and his first on turf for T. Pletcher. He’s bred for it (Animal Kingdom) and has been working like a much better type this time around while appearing fit and ready. He’ll remove blinkers that he wore in his most recent start and returns as a first-time gelding while picking up J. Rosario. There’s a lot of reasons to think he’s a major contender.
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RACE 8: Post 5:09 ET. Grade: B
Use: 2-Cookie Dough; 3-Talk Veuve to Me
Forecast: Cookie Dough exits a series of graded stakes races and should find class relief in this second-level allowance sprint for fillies and mares. She’s a perfect one-for-one at this seven furlong trip, having won the Susan’s Girl Stakes in Florida last year, and against this group she should be able to control proceedings on the front end. Talk Veuve to Me seems likely to draft into a comfortably stalking position and have every chance from the quarter pole home. Third to the subsequent Shine Again Stakes winner Special Relativity in a similar affair here last month while perhaps not caring for the muddy surface, the daughter of Violence shows a bullet three furlong blowout over the Saratoga training track four days ago to indicate that she retains all of her speed. We’re expecting the winner to be one of these two, and we’ll include both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 9: Post 5:44 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 3-Sister Peacock; 5-Karama; 6-Chelsea Cloisters
Forecast: Karama was assigned a huge Beyer 89 speed figure when winning a listed stakes sprinting on turf at Laurel Park last time out and if she can repeat that effort in this tougher spot the lightly-raced daughter of Kitten’s Joy can score again. The concern is that both of her wins were gate-to-wire and today she may have to prove she can be just as effective if not handed an easy lead. The same can be said for the Canadian shipper Sister Peacock, a winner of four of seven, each of her victories having been accomplished on the front end. She’s not as fast on numbers as Karama so we wonder if rating tactics might be experimented with. Chelsea Cloister is another contender that wants the front end for her best chance, and like Sister Peacock, will need a boost in the speed figure department. As a two-year-old she was a strong runner-up over this course and distance in a listed stakes and she’s been third in both of her starts to date in 2019. In a race that has the potential to turn chaotic, we’ll hope to get by using these three but if you can afford to include more, go right ahead.
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RACE 10: Post 6:18 ET. Grade: B
Use: 2-Hurricane Jake; 10-Lisbon
Forecast: The finale is a $40,000 maiden claiming middle distance turf affair that should boil down to two main contenders. Hurricane Jake shows up in a seller for the first time, lands the rail, and switches to J. Ortiz. He’s a one-paced type but fits on numbers and should be competitive stretching out. He finished second after setting the pace in his only prior route attempt, an off-the-turf two-turner at Keeneland in April. Lisbon also has the maiden-to-maiden claiming angle in his chart with numbers that make him dangerous. The Quality Road colt goes for the red-hot Asmussen/Santana team and might be eligible for somebody’s rewards program, as this will be his sixth career start on his fifth different racetracks.
