Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (Dmr, Sar) for August 25, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.


Friday, August 25, 2017

RACE 1: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Sly Humor; 2-Irish Dame

Forecast: Sly Humor drops to her lowest level ever and should stick much better against this level of competition. She gets a break in the weights with the switch to Roman and will try gate-to-wire tactics from the rail in this abbreviated sprint. Irish Dame looked good beating an $8,000 field vs. older rivals and today tackles her own age group, so this apparent raise in class may not be any real issue. She’ll be pressing the pace throughout and will have every chance. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.


​​​RACE 2: Post 4:02 PT. Grade: B

Use: 2-Miss Boom Boom; 6-Space Cadet

Forecast: Miss Boom Boom was in a bit steep when tackling stakes rivals at Santa Rosa last time out but on numbers she’s more than capable of getting back on the winning track in this starter’s allowance turf miler for fillies and mares. She’s run well over this course in the past and gets the rail and Prat, so we’re anticipating she’ll go lower than her morning line of 5/2. Space Cadet is better than her last race shows and is reunited with Desormeaux, who has won on her in the past. She’ll get the patient ride she needs and should be heard from late.


​​RACE 3: Post 4:32 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 4-Treasure Hunter; 7-Bank Walker; 8-Longden

Forecast: Longden has trained like a very nice prospect for Baffert so we’ll put him on top despite the difficulty in winning first time out from an outside post over a distance of ground. The son of Bernardini gets Bejarano, and if he runs to his works he’ll be dangerous in the final furlong. Bank Walker is the likely choice and strictly the one to beat after finishing a strong runner-up in a hot recent race. With the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern, the son of Tiz Wonderful has plenty in his favor. Treasure Hunter flashed speed in his debut before weakening in a strong affair; he may be the controlling speed today and certainly is bred to handle the distance. Toss him in at 12-1 on the morning line.


RACE 4: Post: 5:02 PT. Grade: C+

Use:  2-Indygo Bo; 4-Lazzam; 5-Rye Patch; 6-Pepper Crown

Forecast: The fourth race is a messy turf affair; we’ll go four deep and hope that’s enough to survive and advance. Pepper Crown didn’t get the best of runs when fifth, beaten only a length, in a similar affair over this course earlier this month and with clear sailing today could spring an upset. He’s better than 15-1; we can say that with confidence. Indygo Bo, claimed in five straight races and now in the Ian Kruljac barn, is thoroughly genuine and consistent and should draft into an ideal ground-saving, second flight position while seeking his fourth win from his last five starts. Rye Patch, beaten as the favorite in each of his last three starts, may be hard to trust in his current form, but he’s a first-off-the-claim for Baltas while switching to Bejarano and could easily bounce back. Lazzam, first or second in his last four outings, seems the most dangerous of the deep closers.


RACE 5: Post 5:32 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Camino de Estrella; 8-Thorpe d’Oro; 10-Ziconic

Forecast: Camino de Estrella has rising numbers and seems ready to produce another forward move. With a nice sprint prep under his belt in his second start off a layoff, the son of Mineshaft switches to Bejarano and should be prominent throughout and have every chance. Thorpe d’Oro has burned a ton of money in his last pair and seems to be regressing with every race, but he’s re-equipped with blinkers, gets a weight break with the switch to Romans, and may deserve one more chance. The deep-closing Ziconic missed by a neck under similar conditions earlier this month despite not having much pace to run at; with some decent fractions today he could become Zenyatta’s first winner.


​​​​RACE 6: Post 6:01 PT. Grade: B

Use: 4-Pacific Coast Hwy; 6-Royal Opera House; 10-Café Flavor

Forecast: This mini-marathon grass grab bag could be won by just about any of the 10 entrants. We’ll go three-deep but if you need to include more, go right ahead. Royal Opera House closed a big gap in a fairly promising U.S. debut and should produce a forward move with that effort behind him. There’s no reason he won’t handle the trip. Café Flavor failed in his one prior try over a marathon distance but his numbers continue to improve and this lightly-raced colt switches to Prat. Pacific Coast Hwy exits a strong, productive event over this course and distance and is yet another lightly-raced and improving colt capable of producing a winning late kick.


RACE 7: Post 6:30 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 4-Mended; 8-Faithfully

Forecast: Faithfully earned a triple-digit Beyer when an excellent third in the Clement Hirsch Stakes-G1 over this main track last month. Anything close to that effort today wins this listed stakes. Mended is hard to dismiss; the Broken Vow filly is working on a seven race winning streak although obviously not against this level of competition. At least she should be able to out finish the others.


RACE 8: Post 7:00 PT.  Grade: B-

Use:  4-We Will Re Joyce; 9-Boss Move

Forecast: Boss Move ran pretty well to be a distant second in his debut vs. similar last month and with any kind of improvement today the Mike McCarthy-trained should be along in time. We Will Re Joyce earned a career top number when third two weeks ago and will be making her fifth start since mid-June. She has some early speed and against this group should be a strong factor from start to finish. We’ll use both in rolling exotic play while preferring Boss Move on top.




Friday, August 25, 2017


​RACE 1: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: B+

Use: 2-Codrington; 4-Big Expense


​​RACE 2: Post 1:35 ET. Grade: B

Use: 2-Build to Suit; 3-Eye Luv Lulu


RACE 3: Post 2:10 ET. Grade: X

Single: 2-Sunset Ridge

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:45 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Barbarossa; 5-Sandlot Star; 6-Battle Station

​RACE 5: Post 3:20 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Aveenu Malcainu; 6-Morning Breez; 8-What a Catch

​​​RACE 6: Post 4:05 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 1-CoreyQ; 4-Wish Upon; 10-Terralsole

​​RACE 7: Post 4:40 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 4-Feeling Bossy; 7-Ack Naughty; 8-Fourstar Crook


​​​RACE 8: Post 5:15 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 3-Pauseforthecause; 8-I Still Miss You; 9-Trouble for Skylar

RACE 9: Post 5:49 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 2-King Kreesa; 3-Get Jets; 9-Offering Plan


RACE 10: Post 6:18 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 4-Twisted Tom; 5-Broken Engagement

RACE 11: Post 6:57 ET.  Grade: C+

Use: 1-Mr. Cat; 4-Atwitzend; 6-Dab





Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (Dmr, Sar) for August 25, 2017

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