The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
Saturday, June 10, 2017
RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 5-Lyrics; 6-Midnight Lilly
Midnight Lilly tipped her hand with excellent third place performance in her California debut. She finished strongly into the teeth of slow fractions (see Black Book) and looks ready to graduate in the Saturday opener, a mile turf event for maiden special weight fillies. The daughter of Midnight Lute retains Rafael Bejarano, boasts a solid five furlong workout since raced, and can be expected to produce another forward move in what is just her third career start. Lyrics is worth including on a ticket or two as well; the Richard Mandella-trained daughter of Speightstown stretches out and tries grass for the first time after displaying good speed in three prior sprint efforts.
RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: X
Use: 3-Gato Del Oro; 6-Omega Moon
Omega Moon ran a winning race in defeat in his debut last month but was worn down late and wound up second while six clear of the others. Second-time starters from the Bob Baffert barn usually move forward (26% with this angle) so we’re expecting the son of Malibu Moon to be tough to deny at what will be a very short price. He really looked sharp in a short blowout under a hammerlock a few days ago (see workout). Gato Del Oro flashed good speed before weakening in his debut last month but should be a fitter colt today and likely will stick better for good trainer Richard Baltas. The son of Medaglia d’Oro makes a major jockey switch to Bejarano, so we’ll toss him in on a ticket or two in rolling exotic play.
RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Banze No Oeste; 3-Success Rate; 6-Chips All In
The third race is a contentious downhill turf sprint for mid-grade claimers and requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Banze No Oeste takes a two-level class drop for the money run and deserves top billing on the basis of a victory over this course and distance at this level two races back. Most effective as a late-running sprinter, the Brazilian-bred gelding should be tough to contain late with good racing luck and a decent pace up front. Success Rate is a first-off-the-claim for Robertino Diodoro and a win down the hill in March charts well in this spot. The barn has excellent stats with first-back claims (25% and a flat-bet profit) so improvement can be expected and the price (8-1 on the morning line) makes him a “must use.” Chips All In, freshened since early April and always partial to this unique layout (first or second in seven of 14 hillside starts), has a right to return to good form for Jerry Hollendorfer. This drop to the $32,000 level could make the winning difference. Let’s use all three in our rolling exotics while slightly preferring Banze No Oeste on top.
RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 2-Auntjenn; 7-Obey
First-level allowance fillies and mares sprint six and one-half furlongs in the fourth race, with Auntjenn the likely choice and strictly the one to beat. Third vs. tougher down the hill in her most recent outing, the Peter Mille-trained filly returns to the main track and should be quick enough to control this race from start to finish. Obey, a sharp Phoenix invader, obviously is facing tougher foes on this circuit but on pure numbers she’s a fit and at 8-1 on the morning line probably is worth using as a back-up or a saver. However, strong preference on top goes to Auntjenn.
RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Gran Fiesta; 3-Serengeti; 9-Runaway Ghost
Talented juveniles occupy the fifth race with a number of nice prospects to consider. Serengeti (see workout) acts like a colt with much speed and the Baffert-trained son of Algorithms looks fit and ready for a major effort first crack out of the box. He’s 2-1 on the morning line but we suspect he’ll go lower. Runaway Ghost has the benefit of a prior run – he kept on bravely when beaten a head in a legitimate race last month – and is strictly the one to beat, his outside post notwithstanding. Gran Fiesta shows a series of good workouts at Los Alamitos and lands Flavien Prat but must leave cleanly from the rail. He’s worth using on a ticket or two and should be scrutinized for future reference. Let’s prefer Serengeti on top and a press a bit with extra tickets on top.
RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 9-Mission Driven; 10-Bronzino
The sixth race kicks off the Pick-6 – there’s a carryover of $96,867 – and it’s a difficult $20,000 turf claiming miler. We’ll try to get by using just two. Mission Driven, first off the claim for Miller (32% with a flat-bet profit with this angle), returns below his claim level, not normally a healthy sign, but this stable runs them where they belong and we suspect this Awesome Again gelding will improve considerably for his new connections. He gets a considerable break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Evin Roman and looks dangerous from off the pace with a decent pace to run at. Bronzino adds speed to the field but must leave from the extreme outside post. The Bay Area invader has a prior win over the local lawn and can stalk and pounce if required, so Bejarano has a few options. Let’s give Mission Driven a very slight edge on top.
RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Conqueror; 5-Rafter One; 9-Rings of Jupiter
The seventh race is another difficult affair, a maiden $75,000 claimer over a mile on the main track. Rafter One stretches out for the first time; he adds blinkers, retains Bejarano, and looks like an attractive projection play. The son of Wildcat Heir may prefer to sprint, but if he’s ever going to get two turns successfully it will be in his first try. Bejarano stays aboard and most likely will try to take this group wire to wire. Conqueror tries dirt for the first time – his turf and all-weather races have earned decent numbers – and after finishing second in a similar spot on grass in late April he should fit very nice in this spot, assuming he takes to the surface. Rings of Jupiter moves up from the maiden $50,000 level after finishing a distant but solid second at this trip in just his second career start while earning an improved speed figure. With another forward move today with the weight break he enjoys under bug boy Roman, the Baltas-trained gelding figures strongly in the battle. We’ll include all three in our rolling exotics while preferring Rafter One on top.
RACE 8: Post 4:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Conquest Farenheit; 3-Kings River King; 10-Bird Is the Word
The Rainbow Stakes for 3-year-olds at nine furlongs on turf is carded as the featured eighth race and has several contenders to consider. Course specialist Bird Is the Word acts like he’ll improve as the distances increase (he’s a son of Belmont Stakes winner Birdstone) and should find plenty of pace to compliment his late-running style. At this distance he’ll have every chance to produce the last run. Kings River King is a one-race maiden and 30-1 on the morning line, but make no mistake this son of Acclamation can run. Yes, this is a terribly ambitious spot but he’s trained like a quality colt with a deep closing style and if allowed to lag early and produce one late run the Kenny Black trained colt might blow up the tote board. He was a Black Book horse for us after his debut (click here to watch). Conquest Farenheit is suspect at this trip, though he does exit the best race and earned a terrific speed figure in victory over a mile on this course in March. The son of Scat Daddy projects to enjoy a stalking trip behind likely pace-setter Monster Man and have every chance when it matters; however, he seems most effective at shorter trips. We’ll use him, though at 8/5 on the morning line the Miller-trained gelding offers little wagering value.
RACE 9: Post 5:00 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 1-St. Reno; 2-Moments Notiz; 3-Ankenny Hill
The main contention in this bottom-rung ($6,250) sprint is drawn inside in yet another difficult race requiring a spread. St. Reno was a voided claim when finishing second in a $16,000 claimer in late April and re-surfaces cheap for John Sadler. If he has one good one left, the lightly-raced 5-year-old will be hard to catch, assuming he leaves cleanly from the rail. Moments Notiz just won gamely at this level with a strong number; he’ll be seeking his third straight score and if he has one good one left he’ll be tough once again. Ankenny Hill , a voided claim two runs back and an actual claim (at this level) in his most recent outing for trainer Mark Glatt (24% with this angle), finished a head behind Moments Notiz in that common race May 14 but today receives a significant weight break (10 lbs.) with the switch to Roman. Based on the weight factor alone, we’ll give him a very slight edge on top while using all three in our rolling exotics.
RACE 10: Post 5:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Starlite Style; 5-Areuthusa; 9-Salsita
The 10th race is a challenging optional claimer on grass for older fillies and mares. Salsita is a first-off-the-claim for Jerry Hollendorfer (powerful stats with this angle), removes blinkers, gets a big weight break with the switch to Roman and stretches out to the more favorable distance of nine furlongs. She’s a two-time winner over the Santa Anita turf course and looks capable of making amends for her failure as the favorite against a similar group in her most recent outing. There appears to be some value here at 6-1 on the morning line. Starlite Style tackles open company today while seeking her third straight win and has numbers that make her a solid fit despite the class hike. She appears to have improved considerably since being paired with Prat and has the deep closing style that should be even more effective at this nine furlong distance. Arethusa is improving as she gets acclimated and is another that should appreciate today’s longer distance. Let’s use all three in our rolling exotics with Salsita earning top billing.
RACE 11: Post 6:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 4-Fly to Mars; 10-Lucky With You; 12-Path of Exile
The finale is a stronger than average maiden $50,000 claimer at five and one-half furlongs. Fly to Mars, away since an unproductive debut for a similar tag about a year ago, returns waiver protected for Miller (25% with a strong flat-bet profit with this angle) and sports a series of sharp drills at San Luis Rey Downs. We suspect the son of Minsters Wildcat is a whole lot better than his fourth place finish (beaten 10 lengths) gives him credit for, and with hot riding Roman taking the call he looks extremely live and well-meant. Lucky With You hasn’t been seen since a year ago May when finishing a strong second with a good number in straight maiden company. He shows up for a tag – not exactly a sign of confidence – but if he returns as well as he left the Victor Garcia-trained gelding will be dangerous in his first try with Lasix. Path of Exile has been chasing straight maiden foes without much success but he’s tackling easier today and could come to life. He’s also returning to dirt and has the route-to-sprint angle we like, so we’ll toss him in as well.
Saturday, June 10, 2017
RACE 1: Post 11:35 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Hammerin Aamer; 3-Nigel’s Destiny; 7-Thebigfundamental
RACE 2: Post 12:07 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 3-Wicked Macho; 7-West Coast; 9-Outplay
RACE 3: Post 12:39 ET. Grade: B
Use: 4-Send It In; 5-Tu Brutus
RACE 4: Post: 1:11 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Union Strike; 3-Abel Tasman
RACE 5: Post 1:52 ET. Grade: X
Use: 5-Songbird; 7-Carina Mia
RACE 6: Post 2:34 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 2-Disco Partner; 3-Pure Sensation; 4-Green Mask
RACE 7: Post 3:15 ET. Grade: B
Use: 3-Recruiting Ready; 8-American Anthem; 10-Long Haul Bay
RACE 8: Post 3:58 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Dickinson; 2-Roca Rojo; 5-Celestine
RACE 9: Post 4:41 ET. Grade: B
Use: 5-Sharp Azteca; 12-Awesome Slew
RACE 10: Post 5:37 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 4-Time Test
RACE 11: Post 6:37 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Twisted Tom; 4-J Boys Echo; 7-Irish War Cry; 11-Epicharis
RACE 12: Post 7:20 ET. Grade: B
Use: 3-Revved Up; 7-Conquest Sandman
RACE 13: Post 7:50 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Pulling G’s; 3-Story to Tell; 10-Realm