The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
Thursday, May 18, 2017
RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Sea Smoke; 4-Starlite Style
The Thursday opener is a one mile turf affair for state-bred first-level allowance fillies and mares. Starlite Style came from far back to break her maiden at this distance over this turf course in her most recent start in her 12th career outing, and it could be argued that the victory was a product of a blazing early pace that aided her deep closing style. However, it’s possible the race flow will be similar today. With top rider Flavien Prat staying aboard, the daughter of Unusual Heat is assured of receiving the patient ride she requires. Sea Smoke projects to enjoy an ideal ground-saving trip from her rail post position and should be on or near the lead throughout, though she’ll probably have to contend with other front-running types. She broke her maiden over this course and distance last year and her recent form is solid. Let’s use both in our rolling exotics but we’ll give a slight edge on top to Starlite Style due to the anticipated race-shape.
RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 3-Mondaymorningblues; 4-Ismelucky
Maiden juvenile fillies sprint four and one-half furlongs in the second race. Ismelucky already has a strong race over the track, having finished a willing runner-up in a fast race two weeks ago. There will have to be a fairly decent filly in here to beat her. Mondaymorningblues is bred for speed and sports a healthy series of workouts at San Luis Rey Downs for her racing debut. Trainer Peter Miller is a healthy 22% with debut runners and boasts a flat-bet profit with this angle, so this daughter of Morning Line must be considered a major player. We’ll give Ismelucky a slight edge on top but double the race in our rolling exotics.
RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 5-Louden’s Gray; 6-Madelyn’s Wild Max
The third race kicks off the Pick-6 sequence; it’s a six furlong sprint for older $10,000 claimers. Louden’s Gray has been facing tougher of late and has numbers that are better than par for the level, so the Victor Garcia-trained gelding is the likely choice and one to beat at 9/5 on the morning line. He’s just 3-for-32 lifetime but one of those victories came over this track in February and nothing more will be needed to get him a return trip to the winner’s circle. Madelyn’s Wild Max just won for these low profile connections in a $12,500 event here two weeks ago and earned a respectable speed figure in doing so. If he can turn in two alike – and he’s managed to win 10 races during his career – the six-year-old gelding should be a strong threat right back. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics but this is not a race that we’re planning on getting too involved in.
RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Pundy; 7-Bay Muzik
The fourth race is a $32,000 claiming sprint restricted to 3-year-olds. Bay Muzik shows up in a seller and adds blinkers for his first start over dirt, having been tried on turf and all-weather in his first three career outings. The Blaine Wright-trained colt lands the cozy outside post and should greatly appreciate the class drop. Pundy has a high-priced maiden claiming victory two races back that charts well with these, but from the rail he’ll have no option other than to gun and go under bug boy Roman. Unless there’s a complete pace meltdown the winner should be one of these two, and based on his favorable draw Bay Muzik probably deserves the edge on top.
RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 3-Ritzy A. P.; 6-Sorry Erik
Three-year-olds eligible to the first condition meet over nine furlongs on turf in the fifth race. Ritzy A. P. was overmatched in the American Turf S.-G2 on Derby Day in Kentucky but he certainly isn’t today, and the Dan Blacker-trained colt should regain his best form when facing a below par field for the level. The son of English Channel broke his maiden on this course three runs back and wasn‘t beaten too badly when fifth in the Pasadena Stakes in his next outing. Regular pilot Victor Espinoza will have him rolling late. Sorry Erik, back from Louisiana after a pair of unsuccessful tries in main track graded stakes events, is unproven on grass but has speed figures that a rising and a good recent work tab to indicate improvement is likely. Let’s go with Ritzy A. P. on top but use both in our rolling exotics.
RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Hot Paris Night; 6-Flight Thru
Hot Paris Night is a consistent gelding that appears well-placed in this restricted (nw-3) main track miler and should be prominent throughout while enjoying a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Roman. Both of his career wins have come over this main track and the Jerry Hollendorfer-trained gelding has speed figures that fit nicely for the level. Flight Thru, second under these conditions last month, has been first or second in five of seven starts over the Santa Anita main oval and can be effective sprinting or routing. With the switch to Martin Pedroza, the Peter Miller-trained gelding should have every chance from a stalking position. We’ll try to get by in our rolling exotic play using just these two.
RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Where Y’at Joe Joe; 5-Forest Blue; 7-Well Maybe
The featured seventh race is a starter handicap for $10,000 claimers at six furlongs that on paper looks fairly deep and contentious. Forest Blue may be as good as any; the son of Tale of Ekati was claimed back by Jeff Mullins in his most recent start and with the return to the main track and the addition of blinkers the 5-year-old gelding can be expected to return to top form. Well Maybe must pack high weight of 125 lbs. while seeking his third straight win, the most recent of which was accomplished in a race open to quarter horses at Los Alamitos. The Art Sherman-trained gelding has won half of his six career starts over the Santa Anita main track and captured a decent race here under Stewart Elliott two races back. Where Y’at Joe Joe earned a powerful speed figure when runner-up as the favorite in a $16,000 affair last month; a repeat of that effort today puts him in the fray. We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics and hope that’s sufficient to survive and advance.
RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Sally Simpson; 2-Gee Street; 4-Tammy’s Window
The finale is a maiden $50,000 claimer over a mile on turf for fillies and mares and looks fairly wide open. Gee Street has the first-time-for-a-tag angle that always must be considered and the daughter of Street Boss should greatly appreciate the class relief. She’s competitive on numbers, lands a good inside post, and should draft into an ideal second flight, stalking spot. Sally Simpson is another with the maiden-to-maiden-claiming angle and seems likely to try gate-to-wire tactics from the rail. She’s questionable around two turns but if she’s ever going to get the trip, it will be in her first try. Tammy’s Window is a 10-race maiden and perhaps not one to trust, but she has numbers that fit and a closing style that should be effective against this group. The switch to Prat doesn’t hurt, either, so toss her in.
Thursday, May 18, 2017
RACE 1: Post 1:30 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Data Room; 5-Herecomesyourman
RACE 2: Post 2:01 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 5-Talk Softly
RACE 3: Post 2:32 ET. Grade: B
Use: 2-Markitoff; 5-Hard to Have Fun
RACE 4: Post: 3:04 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 3-Shamcat; 5-King of Spades; 7-Taste for Talent
RACE 5: Post 3:36 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Pico Uno; 6-Browse
RACE 6: Post 4:09 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Alien Season; 2-Outrageous Bet; 3-Mr. Cat
RACE 7: Post 4:41 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Rockin Alli; 4-Selenite; 5-Jet Majesty
RACE 8: Post 5:13 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 3-Hey Jabber Jaw; 4-Threefiveindia; 6-Silver Ride
RACE 9: Post 5:45 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 3-Ouro Verde; 7-Special Risk; 9-Murrell’s Belle