The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
Sunday, May 28, 2017
RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: X
Single: 2-Jes Jaa
The Sunday opener is a restricted (nw-3) $16,000 claimer at the extended sprint trip of six and one-half furlongs. Jes Jaa drops to his lowest level ever despite earning a career top speed figure when a close fourth vs. $25,000 open company last month, so anything close to his last race should handle this group with relative ease. However, at even money on the morning line, the Sean McCarthy-trained son of Big Drama offers no value. You can use him as a rolling exotic single or simply pass the race.
RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Gummy; 4-Cupid’s Beau; 7-B G’s Thunder
Bottom-rung maiden claimers sprint six and one-half furlongs in the second race, an open affair requiring a spread. We’ll go three deep and hope that’s sufficient. Cupid’s Beau has been facing tougher and should be highly competitive in this league with anything close to his best effort. In the frame in six of his last seven starts, the son of Ministers Wild Cat is long overdue for a win and has numbers that are better than par for this class, so it may be now or never. At 9/5 on the morning line, he’s “supposed” to win, but as a nine race maiden he’s probably not one to trust. Gummy plummets from straight maiden all the way down to the bottom for trainer Richard Mandella and this Triple Crown nominated colt obviously is being culled from the stable. This also will be his first try on dirt and he must leave from the rail, so while we’ll use him, he’s another that can’t really be trusted. B G’s Thunder, a fair third in his debut after a slow start, has a right to improve for a low percentage outfit and is worth considering, though you’d probably want a bit more than his morning line of 4-1. Tread lightly here.
RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Ucanthankmelater; 5-Stagecoach Stop
Stagecoach Stop is a Florida invader making his local debut in a very soft spot for a high percentage barn, and a repeat of his 11-length maiden claiming win two runs back should beat this field. He’s listed at 9/2 on the morning line but we doubt you’ll get it. As a saver we’ll also use on a ticket or two Ucanthankmelater, a class dropper with a prior win over this track and distance.
RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Heat; 8-Hot Ore
Heat didn’t get the best of runs (wide throughout without cover) when a close fourth in a similar spot last month but with a ground-saving trip today he should return to the winner’s circle in a soft entry-level state-bred allowance turf miler. Yes, he’s 1-for-20 lifetime but his recent form actually is quite solid and consistent. On the other hand, he’s 2-1 on the morning line and probably no bargain at that price. You may also want to consider in rolling exotic play Hot Ore, away for more than a year with a moderate work tab but with grass form that makes him a contender for a barn that has superior stats with layoff runners.
RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: X
Single: 2-Red Lightning
Red Lightning suffered through a brutal trip (see Black Book) when a distant third in his debut, a fast, highly rated and productive heat. With good luck today he should bury this group, but the son of Midshipman is listed at even money on the morning line so there’s not much we can do with him. The Billy Morey-trained colt is an obvious short price rolling exotic single.
RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Right to the Point; 6-Aflewency; 9-Princess Dorian
We’ll triple the sixth race, an abbreviated sprint for maiden state-bred fillies and mares. Aflewency hails from a low profile but clever barn and has trained well enough (see workout) to warrant a look in a below par field. Right to the Point, third in a maiden claimer in her last start but earning a number that should fit with these, gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Solis and has every right to produce a forward move. Princess Dorian, a decent second in the same race Right to the Point exits in her racing debut, is another with plenty of room to improve and should be running on late. Let’s give the fresh face Aflewency a slight edge on top and consider her in the straight pool if you can get close to her morning line of 4-1.
RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Ashleyluvssugar; 3-Itsinthepost
The Charlie Whittingham Stakes is a Grade 2 turf event over a mile and one-quarter and should boil down to the two favorites. Itsinthepost is thoroughly genuine and consistent but must pack high weight of 126 lbs. He’s been in the money in seven straight, and after victories in the San Luis Rey and Elkhorn Stakes the French-bred gelding now ranks as one of the better long distance turf performers in North America. He continues to maintain his edge in the morning (see workout) and seems set to fire another big shot. Ashleyluvssugar has won five of 10 career starts over the Arcadia lawn, continues to train eagerly (see workout), but was second as the choice behind Itsinthepost without any visible excuse in the San Luis Rey. However, there is a significant six pound weight shift in his favor, so the veteran son of Game Plan must be given a chance to make amends.
RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Trap Queen; 3-Li’l Grazen
Trap Queen acts like a real nice filly and if she leaves cleanly from the rail the daughter of Good Journey should outrun this state-bred band of maiden fillies and mares. Her recent series of strong morning drills (see workout) points her out. At 7/2 on the morning line she represents excellent value both in the straight pool and in rolling exotic play. Li’l Grazen appears to be the best of the known element and can be included on a ticket or two as a saver.
RACE 9: Post 4:30 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 3-Little Bit Lovely; 4-Dissension
The finale is a downhill slalom event for $25,000 claiming fillies and mares. Little Bit Lovely seeks her third straight win but is dropping a notch from the $32,000 level so the barn may be expecting (or wanting) to lose her. We’ll use her, but certainly not single her. Dissension has the route-to-sprint angle we like and 11 career wins on her resume, so the Peter Miller-trained mare rates a look despite having finished behind ‘Lovely twice in recent outings. We’ll try to get by using just these two in a typical grass grab bag but we suggest you include as many as you can afford to.
Sunday, May 28, 2017
RACE 1: Post 1:30 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Kohlhase; 3-Set the Trappe
RACE 2: Post 2:01 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Sophia’s Choice; 3-She’s All Love; 7-Pure Gemmz
RACE 3: Post 2:32 ET. Grade: X
Single: 9-Bustin It
RACE 4: Post: 3:04 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Baseline; 4-Rate for Me; 5-Consumerconfidence
RACE 5: Post 3:36 ET. Grade: B
Use: 4-Cause for Surprise; 6-Duquesne Whistle
RACE 6: Post 4:09 ET. Grade: B
Use: 4-Mutaraamy; 6-Whiskey Seven
RACE 7: Post 4:41 ET. Grade: B
Use: 3-Mr Singh; 10-Montclair
RACE 8: Post 5:13 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Splashtastic; 4-Touchofstarquality; 7-Destin
RACE 9: Post 5:45 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 6-Astounding; 11-Mr Grey