The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
Sunday, February 5, 2017
RACE 1: Post 11:00 PT. Grade: X
Soglio may have been a tad unlucky when second to Vending Machine in the Eddie Logan Stakes over this course and distance in late December; the Scat Daddy colt was given a bit too much to do and finished strongly but too late into the teeth of slow splits to miss by less than a length. He’s worked very well since, switches to Rafael Bejarano, and seems likely to produce the last run. However, he offers little value at 7/5 on the morning line so we’ll use him as a rolling exotic single but otherwise pass the race.
RACE 2: Post 11:30 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Meanie Irenie; 3-Outa Here; 4-Beautiful Princess
Maiden special weight sophomore fillies meet over six and one-half furlongs in the second race, an open affair requiring a spread. Beautiful Princess disappointed in her debut when never a factor at even money; she was subsequently transferred from the Bob Baffert barn to the Doug O’Neill stable and continues to impress in the morning. We’re going to assume that the daughter of Giant’s Causeway is better than the race shows and will give her another chance. Outa Here and Meanie Irenie both exit that same Dec. 26 event and both have every right to improve as well. The former finished with interest but too late and today gets an extra furlong to work with, while the latter retains Bejarano and has looked quite sharp in the a.m. since that outing. All three should be included in rolling exotic play with slight preference on top to Beautiful Princess.
RACE 3: Post 12:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Herunbreidledpower; 5-Miss Big Stuff
We’ll double the third race, a $12,500 claiming sprint for fillies and mares. Miss Big Stuff drops to her lowest level ever for the red hot Peter Miller barn and anything close to her best should be good enough. A winner of two of four starts over the Santa Anita main track, the daughter of Big Drama needs a clear early lead to be most effective, but since she’s facing other speed today she’s hardly a slam dunk. Therefore, we’ll also include in our rolling exotics Herunbridledpower, exiting a tougher starter’s allowance event and with back numbers that make her dangerous. She’s another with prior winning form over this main track and has done so from slightly off the pace, so Marty Garcia has the option to take back if the pace scenario dictates.
RACE 4: Post: 12:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Rye Patch; 7-Sky Preacher; 11-Buymeabond
The fourth race is a starter’s allowance grass grab bag with a number of possibilities. We’ll use three and hope to survive and advance. Rye Patch catches a very favorable pace scenario and could gain control early and never look back. Genuine and consistent, the O’Neill-trained son of Hard Spun looked good winning up north in typical gate-to-wire fashion and earned a number that makes him the one to beat right back. Sky Preacher has races that put him in the picture and didn’t run badly in his most recent start, a close fifth vs. tougher allowance foes. Corey Nakatani got to know him and stays aboard. Buymeabond always is a late threat, though he’s never been overly fond of the Santa Anita lawn. He’ll be running on late but could use some help up front.
RACE 5: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Lucky Mark; 9-Swiss Wager
Low-level claiming sprinters get together in the fifth race at five and one-half furlongs. Lucky Mark must leave quickly from the rail but if he does the Bay Area invader should be quite formidable in a soft field. First or second in nine of 14 career starts, the son of Lucky Pulpit drops drastically in class, adds blinkers, and should be in the first flight throughout. Fellow Golden Gate shipper Swiss Wager also plummets in class while returning to his winning level, and if he can avoid losing ground from his extreme outside post he’ll be in the thick of things as well. Let’s double the race in our rolling exotics while slightly preferring Lucky Mark on top.
RACE 6: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: X
Single: 4-Unique Bella
Unique Bella is the best 3-year-old filly in North America – heck, she might be the best 3-year-old period – and should continue her winning ways in the La Virgenes Stakes-G2 in her first try around two turns. We can’t do much with her at 3/5 on the morning line, but she’s certainly a free bingo space in rolling exotic play. She’s worth the price of admission all by herself.
RACE 7: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Hayabusa One; 6-Gustnado
Hayabusa One exits by far the best race and drops for the money run in this strong conditioned allowance race over nine furlongs on turf. The Graham Motion-trained French-bred has looked quite sharp since finishing well but too late in the Hollywood Derby-G1 in December and with good racing luck should be along in plenty of time. For protection, you may want to consider having a ticket or two using Gustnado. The Smart Strike gelding has never been sharper, most recently earning a career top speed figure when winning a second-level allowance affair in fine style over this course and distance last month. He’ll be heard from in the final furlong
RACE 8: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 7-Lil Awecim; 9-Two Hail Marys; Potente Alba
The finale is an abbreviated sprint for maiden special weight state-bred 3-year-olds and came up fairly competitive. We’ll triple the race in our rolling exotics while preferring the first-timer Two Hail Marys on top. The gelded son of Slew’s Tiznow has done some good work in the morning for Craig Dollase and looks quick enough to be on or near the lead throughout. Martin Pedroza has worked him in the a.m. and gets the call. Lil Awecim has shown some dangerous zip in a pair of races before fading; he’s a first-time gelding today and could easily improve. Potente Alba, in the money in all three starts and adding blinkers for the first time, missed at 40 cents on the dollar in his most recent start and may be a hard one to trust. However, he shortens up a half furlong and should enjoy a comfortable pace-prompting trip outside, so we’ll toss him in as well.
Sunday, February 5, 2017
RACE 1: Post 12:00 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 3-Tale of Presell; 6-Queeb; 9-Dungeness
RACE 2: Post 12:30 ET. Grade: C
Use: 2-Beach Tag; 7-Milbra
RACE 3: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Lenstar; 4-Secret Recruit
RACE 4: Post: 1:30 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Giovanna; 2-Grand Folly; 3-Caffeine
RACE 5: Post 2:00 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Olympic Smoke; 4-Summer Whites; 5-Rilla
RACE 6: Post 2:30 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Stableford; 7-Take Time to Pray; 10-All About Diva
RACE 7: Post 3:01 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Mr. Bridger; 7-Jumpn’ James
RACE 8: Post 3:32 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Diamond Earring; 9-Battle Tux
RACE 9: Post 4:03 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Dynamic Dancer; 5-Mongo Nation; 11-Archvillain
RACE 10: Post: 4:34 ET. Grade: B+
RACE 11: Post: 5:05 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 5-Scuba Sue; 8-Spinning Wheel; 9-Goodbye Sorrow
RACE 12: Post: 5:35 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Maid On a Mission; 7-Red Parasol; 8-Vow Me Over