Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, GP) for Jan. 14, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.  

B=Solid Play.  

C=Least preferred, or pass.  

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Saturday, January 14, 2017

RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B-

Single: Lady Pamela

The first race has been taken off the turf, and as of this writing late scratches (there should a few) are unknown. Scarlet Honey, Peach Cove and Lady Pamela all would have been major contenders on grass, but only the latter has any established form on dirt. Assuming she starts, Lady Pamela looks like the logical top pick but this is a race we don’t plan to get too involved in.

​​RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 4-Herunbridledpower; 6-Kristie’s Heart

The second race is a starter’s allowance sprint for fillies and mares. Herunbridledpower seeks her third straight win and if she continues to improve she can score again. The Steve Miyadi-trained filly has speed but doesn’t need the lead to win and a bullet half mile workout over the training last week indicates she remains sharp as a tack. Kristie’s Heart also is seeking her third straight score; she lands the comfortable outside post, is a strong fit on speed figures and likely will enjoy a perfect stalking trip. Both should be used in rolling exotic play with slight preference on top to Herunbridledpower.

RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: none

Pass/No Play

The third race, a bottom-rung claiming router, attracted just six starters, four of which exit the same race and none of whom are trustworthy. Winning Causeway ran the best of that lot when winding up fourth in that $10,000 claimer Dec. 29, but at 9/5 on the morning line offers no wagering value. This race is best left alone, and rolling exotic players probably are best advised to use as many as they can afford to.

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT. Grade: X

Single: 5-Nextdoorneighbor

 Nextdoorneighbor is listed at 6/5 on the morning line and probably will go lower in this $12,500 claiming sprint. He’s an old pro with a winning spirit and always runs his best when in the Peter Miller barn. The 10-year-old gelding is a very logical no-value rolling exotic single.

RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: X

Single: 1-Vale Dori

 Vale Dori is the 1/5 morning line favorite in the fifth race, the La Canada Stakes. She just won a similar race at 50 cents on the dollar last month at Del Mar and before that romped in an overnight race over this track and distance by more than 10 lengths. She’s another short price rolling exotic single in a race that we’ll otherwise pass.

​​​RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 2-True Testament; 13-Mistressofthenight

This race has been taken off the turf. True Testament, runner-up in her last pair with steadily improving speed figures, continues to train in sharp fashion for Jerry Hollendorfer and shouldn’t be inconvenienced by the change to the main track. Among the known element, she’s the quickest in the field. Mistressofthenight must draw in from the also-eligible list but if the scratches smile she’ll be the one to fear most. The daughter of Midnight Lute adds blinkers for the first time, shortens to what we suspect is her best distance, and has been working lights out for Richard Baltas. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.

 

​​​RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade: B+

Single: 4-Valiant Minister

 Valiant Minister brought $680,000 as a juvenile at the June OBS Sale (where he smoked a furlong in 9 4/5 seconds, fastest for the entire preview session) but it’s taken him this long - a year and half later – to finally makes it to the races. The son of Candy Ride is a full-brother to the highly promising Moe Candy (a recent allowance winner here in 1:08 and change) and has trained like every bit the top prospect himself. Simply put, if he runs to his ability, the others will be a deep water. Let’s make this Bob Baffert-trained colt a strong straight play and rolling exotic single and hope to get close to his morning line of 3-1.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade:  B-

Use: 3-Crosscheck Carlos; 4-The All Button

We’ll go two-deep in the eighth race, a $50,000 claimer restricted to newly-turned 3-year-olds. Crosscheck Carlos is a stakes winner but is realistically spotted at this level and seems the solid choice. First or second in five of seven career starts, the Doug O’Neill-trained colt should be on or near the lead throughout. The All Button, first off the claim for a low profile outfit, has races that put him the picture and numbers that fit for this price. He won nicely under Joe Talamo during the Del Mar fall meeting when trained by O’Neill and if he can run as well for this stable he’ll should at least hit the board.

RACE 9: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: B

Single: 7-Take City by Storm

The finale is begging to be won by a newcomer and Take City By Storm fits the bill. The Temple City gelding debuts for the clever Steve Miyadi barn and has shown more than enough ability in a.m. trials to handle this modest assignment. At 4-1 on the morning line he’s well worth a straight play and should be used as a rolling exotic single.

 

GULFSTREAM PARK

Saturday, January 14, 2017

 

​RACE 1: Post 12:00 ET. Grade: B

Use: 1-Stableford; 6-Take Time to Pray

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​​RACE 2: Post 12:30 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 4-Exclusive Strike; 8-Gracious Plenty

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RACE 3: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: B

Use: 1-Ascertain; 6-Run and Go

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​​​RACE 4: Post: 1:30 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 1-Mary Sue Weloveyou; 7-Kausastorm; 8-Delightful Lana

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​RACE 5: Post 2:00 ET. Grade: B

Single: 2-Ohio;

​​​RACE 6: Post 2:30 ET. Grade: B+

Use: 5-Sea Coast; 7-Isabella Sings; 8-Dickinson

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​​RACE 7: Post 3:01 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 2-Equine Perfection; 12-Balac

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​​​RACE 8: Post 3:32 ET.  Grade:  B

Use: 7-Zennor; 8-St. Louie; 11-Flying Bullet

RACE 9: Post 4:03 ET.  Grade: B+

Single: 2-Objective Complete

RACE 10: Post: 4:34 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 1-Heart to Heart; 8-Almanaar; 9-Flatlined

 

RACE 11: Post: 5:05 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 2-Tommy Macho; 7-Team Colors; 8-Mr. Jordan

 

RACE 12: Post: 5:35 ET.  Grade: C+

Use: 3-Albert Charles; 6-Fast Fact; 7-Campaigner’s Gold

 

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, GP) for Jan. 14, 2017

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