The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
Friday, January 6, 2017
RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: C
Use: 1-Northern Grey; 6-Vibe
Vibe takes a nosedive in class – two races back he was racing in stakes up north and today he’s in a $20,000 claimer – so this isn’t the kind of pattern to have confidence in, but the son of Astrology continues to train well so if he has a good one left in him he should be hard to beat. However, at 9/5 on the morning line he offers little in the way of wagering value. Northern Grey earned a useful speed figure when graduating in just his second career start last month at Del Mar and is realistically spotted right back. Victor Espinoza stays aboard and likely will try gate-to-wire tactics again from the rail. In a race that we’ll otherwise pass, we’ll include both in rolling exotic play.
RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: C
Use: 3-Sassy Ashley; 5-Latina Mo
Bottom-rung maiden claiming fillies and mares meet over a mile in the second race; we’ll try to survive and advance in our rolling exotic play using just two. Latina Mo is a 10-race maiden and probably not one to trust, but she performed decently when runner-up in an abbreviated sprint here last week and against this group shouldn’t be inconvenienced by the stretch-out in trip. Sassy Ashley is a nine-race maiden herself so she’s no bargain either, but the daughter of English Channel has some numbers that fit in addition to a healthy recent work tab so we’ll assume she’ll show up with her usual effort. If you find the need to go deeper in this lackluster event, by all means do so.
RACE 3: Post: 1:30 PT. Grade: none
The third race was carded down the Hillside Course and has been switched to the main track. As of this writing, there are two official scratches but we anticipate a few more. Pick-6 players should use as many as they can afford do. Among that would seem likely to remain in the race and are capable on dirt include C.C. Zip, Late ‘n Left, Molly’s Honor, Sturdy One, and Dis Smart Cat.
RACE 4: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Bar Scene; 5-Wanda’s Touch
Bar Scene tipped her hand when just failing to last in her debut at Del Mar in November, flashing good speed throughout in a similar maiden special weight sprint for fillies and mares at Del Mar. She has trained well since for new conditioner Phil Oviedo, retains Martin Pedroza, and will be tough to catch if she leaves cleanly from the rail. The most dangerous of the closers is Wanda’s Touch, a Square Eddie filly with top flight connections. She gets an extra half furlong to work with today and if her improving pattern continues she’ll be the one to worry about in the final furlong.
RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 3-Dominating Woman; 4-Mannerly
Mannerly was no match for Unique Bella when a distant second in a similar maiden special weight sprint at Del Mar in November – few around these parts would be – but without that future stakes star to worry about this Doug O’Neill-trained filly should go about her business and earn her diploma. An impressive recent work tab indicates this daughter of Unbridled’s Song is moving in the right direction, and with the positive rider switch to Flavien Prat we’re expecting her to handle this assignment. Dominating Woman was a respectable second in her debut at Los Alamitos last month and sports a bullet six furlong workout at San Luis Rey Downs since that outing for a barn that hits at a strong 24% with second-timers. She has the proper style for this extended sprint distance so we suggest you find room somewhere on your ticket for her as a saver or back-up.
RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: none
The sixth race, originally scheduled down the hill, is another that has been taken off the turf and as of this writing it is completely uncertain as to which of the original 14 entrants will start. Sid the Squid, Mototapu, Halo Darlin and Time for Ebby are among those that appear capable on dirt, so we assume they’ll remain in the race. Tread lightly.
RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 2-Silent Bird; 4-Conquest Cobra
Silent Bird finally gets a chance to try two-turns – as a son of Belmont Stakes winner Summer Bird he’s certainly bred to like it – and with improving numbers and a series of sharp recent drills, the lightly-raced five year old appears set to extend his winning streak to five. He’s made a forward move in each of his career starts and he seems quite capable of earning a triple-digit Beyer speed figure today. Conquest Cobra earned a monster number when finishing a strong second over this track and distance two runs back but could do no better than fourth as the favorite when finishing behind Silent Bird in an allowance race at Del Mar last month. He’s stretching out again and working extremely well for Vladimir Cerin, so we’re anticipating this gelded son of Pioneerof the Nile will bounce back with a major effort. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top going to Silent Bird.
RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 4-R Cha Cha; 6-Sizzlin Square
The finale is a starter optional claimer for 3-year-olds with two main contenders. Sizzlin Square returns to the claiming ranks and was victorious when last tried at this level in September at Los Alamitos. A winner of two races from three career starts over the Santa Anita main track, the O’Neill-trained sophomore looks primed to resume his winning ways. R Cha Cha, a strong runner-up at Los Alamitos in a similar event last month, is a progressive sort capable of producing another forward move with added experience. His low profile connections should insure a bit of an overlay price, so we’ll include him as well.
Friday, January 6, 2017
RACE 1: Post 12:35 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 5-Strong Breeze; 6-Dynamic Dancer; 7-Noble Dave
RACE 2: Post 1:04 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Hundred Year Storm; 3-Flashy Val; 5-Table of Elements
RACE 3: Post 1:33 ET. Grade: B
Use: 2-Icono; 5-Thunder Buddies
RACE 4: Post: 2:02 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Preservationist; 5-Travis County; 6-Alpha Team
RACE 5: Post 2:32 ET. Grade: B
Use: 4-Kiss the Clown; 7-Pira
RACE 6: Post 3:02 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 3-Sadie Be Good; 6-Ithinkits Monday
RACE 7: Post 3:32 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 5-Candu Cait
RACE 8: Post 4:02 ET. Grade: B
Use: 2-Town Policy; 6-Express Jet
RACE 9: Post 4:03 ET. Grade: B
Use: 5-Speedmeister; 7-Beasley; 10-Alum
RACE 10: Post: 4:34 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Battle Tale; 9-Catira Rock; 11-Venom Girl