Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, GP) for March 11, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.


Saturday, March 11, 2017


RACE 1: Post 12:00 PT. Grade: X

Single: 6-St. Reno

The Big ‘Cap card begins with a starter’s allowance sprint that looks made to order for St. Reno. Lightly-raced and improving, the John Sadler-trained five-year-old lands the comfortable outside post and will be the controlling speed if he chooses. However, if stalking tactics are employed, the result should remain the same for the son of Awesome Again who earned a career top speed figure when second behind the talented Candy Promises while almost six lengths clear of the rest in a similar affair last month. At 8/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower he’s a logical, short-priced rolling exotic single.


​​​RACE 2: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 4-Burnie’s On Board; 8-Hi Heat Boy; 10-Dr. Troutman

Maiden state-bred 3-year-olds sprint down the hill in the second race. Dr. Troutman returns to his favorite surface after failing at relatively short odds in his last pair, both on the main track. His sharp runner-up effort last fall at Del Mar in his only career start on grass was by far his best outing, and the son of Vronsky most likely will be kept on the lawn from here on in. A strong, steady series of recent workouts should have him right on edge. Hi Heat Boy has done some solid work in the morning for the Phil D’Amato barn and appears to be the most dangerous of the newcomers. Stewart Elliott takes the mount and rides a lot of live runners for this outfit. Burnie’s On Board showed some ability last summer at Del Mar before being stopped on; the son of Unusual Heat probably wants more distance but should be running on late and is worth including on a ticket or two. We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics while preferring Dr. Troutman on top.


RACE 3: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 3-Freddies Dream; 6-Ain’t Misbehavin; 8-Infobedad

The third race is a stronger-than-par optional claimer over the rarely-used mile and one-quarter distance. Hey, it’s Big ‘Cap Day, why not? Infobedad won a $25,000 claimer two races back by more than 26 lengths (over a wet-fast strip) but was out of his element when switched to a tougher spot on grass in his most recent outing. Back on dirt and continuing to impress in the morning workouts, the Sadler-trained import should be on or near the lead throughout and looks quite capable of regaining his best form at 4-1 on the morning line. Freddies Dream earned a huge figure when handling a $20,000 field in an off-the-turfer last month and was claimed by Jack Carava, who raises the gelding to the $40,000 level today in a sign of confidence. The switch to leading rider Flavien Prat is another plus. Ain’t Misbehavin looked sharp beating $16,000 starter’s foes recently while reaffirming his affinity for the Santa Anita main track (six wins in 16 career starts). He’s a bit slower on speed figures than the other two main contenders but might relish this trip. Let’s triple the race in our rolling exotics while slightly preferring Infobedad on top.


​​​​RACE 4: Post: 1:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 6-Paradise; 12-Moon Kitty

Paradise is a promising Union Rags filly making her second career start, and although beaten as the favorite when second in her debut in late January she seems likely to produce a significant forward move today. Her recent workouts are nothing short of spectacular, and the Richard Mandella barn hits with an impressive 24% with second-time starters. Moon Kitty removes blinkers and should be able to slow down a bit after flashing intense early speed and paying the price late when third in a similar spot in late December. She switches to Kent Desormeaux, sports a nice work tab at San Luis Rey Downs for leading trainer Peter Miller, and is a “must use in rolling exotic play.


RACE 5: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 4-Mastery; 6-Iliad

Mastery makes his sophomore debut following a string of very impressive workouts designed to have him fit and ready in his second-to-last prep for the Kentucky Derby. He’s unbeaten and a Grade-1 winner but really hasn’t faced strong competition; today we’ll find out if he’s the real deal. Iliad stretches out for the first time and clearly is the controlling speed; the son of Ghostzapper earned a superb speed figure when winning the San Vicente Stakes over seven furlongs in his most recent outing and if he can project that type of ability at this longer trip he could be very tough to catch. Let’s use both in our rolling exotics while preferring Mastery on top.


​​​​RACE 6: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 1-Madame Stripes; 6-Ceeme Run Wild; 11-Ava Forty Seven

The sixth race is an intriguing entry-level allowance affair over a mile on grass for fillies and mares and offers a number of price possibilities. Madame Stripes, a solid runner-up in her U.S. debut down the Hillside course in November in much stronger-than par race for the level, returns for trainer Neil Drysdale, gets a good inside post, and may simply out-class this field. The South American import was Grade-1 placed in Argentina, and with just six career starts has plenty of room for further improvement. There’s considerable value here at 6-1 on the morning line if you can get it. Ceeme Run Wild is improving with racing for top trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, and after a pair of sharp efforts sprinting stretches out today and could easily be the controlling speed. The daughter of Tiznow has been very impressive in recent a.m. drills and may produce a significant forward move. Ava Forty Seven, away since last May, launches a comeback for new trainer D’Amato and is worth a small look in the exotics. A nine length maiden turf winner at Lone Star Park when last seen, the daughter of Artie Schiller has worked in strong fashion and lands Prat, so a good effort can be expected.


RACE 7: Post 3:00 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 1-Twisted Road; 10-Bird Orr Brady; 11-American Pastime

The late Pick-4 kicks off with a hot maiden sprint for 3-year-olds. Bird Orr Brady has done some excellent work in the a.m. leading up to his racing debut and the son of Kantharos, purchased for $550,000 last year in the OBS March Sale, looks cranked up for a huge run right out of the box. Bred for intense speed, the Doug O’Neill-trained gelding has loads of zip and could take some catching if he breaks with his field. American Pastime is another fast-working first-timer with credentials and debuts for the always-potent Bob Hess/Kent Desormeaux team. The last two workouts by the son of Tapizar have been of the fastest-of-the-morning variety, so we assume he’s fit and ready. Twisted Road has shown signs of real ability in the morning for the Mandella stable but had the misfortune of drawing the rail. He’s probably worth including on a ticket or two but strikes us as a colt who will be a better type down the road. Let’s go with Bird Orr Brady on top and press with him both in the straight pool and in rolling exotic play.


​​​​​RACE 8: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade:  X

Single: 5-Masochistic

Masochistic makes his first start since finishing second (but subsequently forfeiting the purse money due to a positive test) in the BC Sprint last fall and has trained as well as he left. A perfect three-for-three at this seven furlong trip, the Ron Ellis-trained gelding should have no difficultly inheriting the role as the controlling speed and dominating throughout. He’s even money on the morning line, but seems certain to go lower as a no-value rolling exotic single.


​​RACE 9: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B

Single: 4-Dortmund

Truthfully, Dortmund could win or run last, it just depends how he takes to the turf for the first time in his career. His sire loved it, so maybe he will, too. Also, this will be his first outing since being transferred to the Art Sherman barn and the high-class son of Big Brown has done everything asked in the morning for his new connections. It’ll be interesting to see how he performs in a race that figures to produce much slower, softer early fractions than he’s been used to seeing. At 4-1 on the morning line he’s a gamble, but if he doesn’t fire any of the others are more than capable of winning on their best. Let’s go with Dortmund in our rolling exotics but otherwise not get too terribly involved.


RACE 10: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 1-Midnight Storm; 3-Shaman Ghost; 6-Follow Me Crev

Midnight Storm may be considered suspect at a mile and one-quarter but if he gets to the front end without undue pressure he should be able to carry his speed this far. There just doesn’t seem to be much other speed in here, and the veteran son of Pioneerof the Nile has never been better, both in the morning and in the afternoon when it counts. Shaman Ghost, an admirable though non-threatening second to Arrogate in the Pegasus World Cup-G1 in late January, won’t have that one to worry about today and logically is the one to fear most. He’s a true 10-furlong horse and has enough tactical speed to keep Midnight Storm within hailing distance. Follow Me Crev returned in top form with a sharp score against much lesser foes in an overnight race in late February; the Vladimir Cerin-trained gelding was actually second in last year’s edition of the Big ‘Cap and it wouldn’t be surprising if he at least lands in the frame again.


RACE 11: Post 5:00 PT.  Grade: B+

Single: 5-Sircat Sally

Sircat Sally is unbeaten in three starts and we can find no reason to believe she won’t extend the streak to four. The winner of the Cal Cup Oaks over this course and distance in late January, the daughter of Surf Cat has maintained her edge in the interim with a series of sharp works and should run at least as well if not better despite tackling open company. Equally effective on the lead or from a stalking position, the Hollendorfer-trained filly is reunited with Mike Smith, who won on her when she broke her maiden at first asking in November at Del Mar. At 5/2 on the morning line she’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.





Saturday, March 11, 2017


​RACE 1: Post 12:00 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 1-Hy Dandy; 3-Sailer’s Companion; 6-Discreet Manner


​​RACE 2: Post 12:30 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Nico’s On the Run; 7-Wise Warrior; 8-Sparkys Surprise


RACE 3: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 4-Little Caton; 7-Lucky Bella

​​​RACE 4: Post: 1:30 ET. Grade: B

Use: 2-Pretty Perfection; 5-Nite Delite


​RACE 5: Post 2:00 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Write in Candidate; 6-Distorted Union; 8-Mr. Bridger

​​​RACE 6: Post 2:30 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 5-Beautyofaday; 6-Foxy Joxy; 8-Roraima Dos

​​RACE 7: Post 3:01 ET.  Grade: C+

Use: 2-Prudhoe Bay; 5-Express Jet; 10-Social Roy


​​​RACE 8: Post 3:32 ET.  Grade: B+

Single: 7-Mo Maverick

RACE 9: Post 4:03 ET.  Grade: C

Single: 6-Starship Apollo; 9-Shere Khan; 12-Capital City

RACE 10: Post: 4:34 ET.  Grade: B+

Single: 10-Brooklyn Bobby


RACE 11: Post: 5:05 ET.  Grade: C+

Use: 3-War Queen; 5-Elizabeth Aurora; 6-Sweet Ella


RACE 12: Post: 5:35 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 2-Power Alert; 5-Canadian Flyer; 7-Mongolian Saturday


RACE 13: Post: 6:05 ET.  Grade: C+

Use: 1-Yankee Perfection; 3-Conquest Rapiduno; 5-Don’t Talk Back




Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, GP) for March 11, 2017

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