The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
Friday, March 17, 2017
RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Stormy Rocit; 8-Americanize
Americanize tries turf for the first time and if he performs as well on the sod as he does on the main track he’ll be hard to beat in this nw-2 allowance dash down the Hillside course. Drawn comfortably outside and with better-than-par figures for the level, the Doug O’Neill-trained gelding looks likely to go lower than his morning line of 5/2. Stormy Rocit finished a strong second at 16-1 in a highly-rated main track sprint last month for the hot Peter Miller barn and his grass resume indicates he can do the same over the local lawn. Despite the rail, he should be quick enough to be on or near the lead throughout. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics while preferring Americanize on top.
RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Sapodilla; 6-Chuchotti
Sapodilla isn’t fast on speed figures but with only four lifetime starts she probably has a bit more room to improve than the others in this bottom-rung maiden claiming sprint for older fillies and mares. Second, beaten less than a length while more than five clear of the others vs. similar last month, the Marty Jones-trained daughter of Pollard’s Vision looks like the quickest of the quick and may be able to hang on today. Chuchotti, freshened since November and with a healthy recent work tab for Gary Mandella, should be running on late and on pure numbers is strictly the one to beat. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.
RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 6-Broadway Nika
The Pick-6 begins with the third race, a low-level middle distance claimer for older horses. Broadway Nika regressed a bit in his last start when second at even money with a Beyer speed figure 12 points below what he had earned in an 11-length romp in his previous start, but after a month of freshening he seems capable of bouncing back for the hot Bill Spawr barn. Most effective as the controlling speed but able to stalk and pounce if the situation dictates, the veteran gelding has accumulated 12 wins over his career and should be a short price to add to that total today. We’ll make him a rolling exotic single but at 2-1 on the morning line and likely to go lower there’s probably not much else we can do with him.
RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Reckless Charm; 3-Daring Darling; 6-Tuscany Beauty
The fourth race is a contentious starter’s allowance sprint for fillies and mares and requires a spread. We’ll go three-deep and hope to get by. Daring Darling, first off the claim for Leonard Powell, earned a career top speed figure when second in a fast heat last month as the favorite, finishing more than three clear of the rest. We like the fact that her new connections protect her and that Tyler Baze stays aboard, so we’re expecting a forward move, one good enough to beat this field. Reckless Charm is just 1-for-17 lifetime but at least that win came over the Santa Anita main track. She’s a one-paced grinder but should have every chance from the quarter pole home. Tuscany Beauty, second in her last pair, looks like the controlling speed but has failed on three occasions as the favorite and may not be one to trust. She’s always suspect in the final furlong, but she’s a fit on numbers so we’ll toss her in as well.
RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B+
Indavidualist has the proper style for the downhill course and looks ready to explode in the fifth race, a split of the today’s opener. Drawn outside for the first time in his four-race career, the son of Kantharos should have enough early speed to gain a favorable stalking position before being turned loose at the head of the lane. Fourth in the same race that produced Triple Bend S.-G1 winner Denman’s Call, the Kristin Mulhall-trained gelding makes a major switch to Rafael Bejarano and offers considerable value at 4-1 on the morning. We’ll make him a strong straight play and rolling exotic single.
RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-River Echo; 3-Got Even
Second-level allowance main track milers meet in the sixth race, with River Echo the preferred play on top. Vastly improved since joining the Miller barn, the English-bred gelding has an ideal pace-stalking style for this distance and speed figures that fit. Away since late January but sporting a healthy work tab at San Luis Rey Downs, he should run at least as well today as last time and perhaps better. Got Even is the logical controlling speed and when left alone always can be dangerous. The Spawr-trained gelding will take them a long way, perhaps gate-to-wire. Both should be used in rolling exotic play.
RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 2-He Could; 3-Silent Movies; 10-Formulate
The seventh race is a difficult mile turf event for restricted (nw-2) $25,000 claimers. We’ll use three but you may find the need to go a bit deeper. Formulate takes a significant class drop and switches to leading rider Flavien Prat, so we’re expecting a much improved performance from this son of Malibu Moon. He has speed figures that are good enough to win in this league and with clear sailing may be capable of producing the last run. He Could is another massive class dropper that should find this group within his scope. The Kenny Black-trained gelding likes to lag and take hold late and with some help up front could be make some noise in the final furlong. Silent Movies just broke his maiden with a respectable fig over the all-weather surface up north for trainer John Sadler and if he can secure that same kind of trip today he’ll be a factor from start to finish.
RACE 8: Post 4:30 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 3-Irish Dame; 4-Discreta; 5-Outa Here
The finale is a maiden $30,000 claiming sprint for 3-year-olds fillies and looks on paper to be somewhat chaotic. Irish Dame is hard to classify – she’s been running in turf routes against much tougher without being embarrassed – so if she can sprint on the main track she should be able to act with these. The powerful switch to Prat can’t be understated. Outa Here shows up in a seller after chasing home straight maiden foes in her first two starts and seems certain to enjoy the softer company. Discreta removes blinkers, switches to Tyler Baze, takes another class drop for Jerry Hollendorfer and is another likely to improve. She projects to be the controlling speed and might get brave if she can shake loose early.
Friday, March 17, 2017
RACE 1: Post 12:35 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Aqua Teen; 5-Rol Again Question
RACE 2: Post 1:04 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Stableford; 4-Shere Khan
RACE 3: Post 1:33 ET. Grade: B
Use: 3-Black Heir; 5-Cowtown Spirit
RACE 4: Post: 2:02 ET. Grade: B+
RACE 5: Post 2:32 ET. Grade: C
Use: 1-Sir Hannoun; 3-Gran Identidad6-Magnanimous Mine
RACE 6: Post 3:02 ET. Grade: B
Use: 4-Kinghood; 8-Noble Dave
RACE 7: Post 3:32 ET. Grade: B
Use: 3-Call to Honor; 6-He’s Cotton
RACE 8: Post 4:02 ET. Grade: B
Use: 3-Class and Cash; 4-Quiet Force; 5-Aire Bueno
RACE 9: Post 4:32 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 5-Love and Lemons; 7-Stella Performance
RACE 10: Post: 5:02 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 5-Defer Heaven
RACE 11: Post: 5:32 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Skipper Dancer; 8-Osvado; 9-Campaigner’s Gold