Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, GP) for March 25, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.


Saturday, March 25, 2017


RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: C

Use: 2-Unusual Fleet; 3-Zinvor; 10-Zuri Chop

The Saturday opener is a grass grab bag down the hill for $25,000 claimers; we’ll go three-deep in our rolling exotics but if you can afford to spread even more, go right ahead. Zinvor returns to his claim level, adds blinkers, and switches to Joe Talamo. His recent form is okay and his best effort is good enough. Zuri Chop likes to finish second and third a lot more than he likes to win (three wins, 16 seconds/thirds) but he’s beaten better in the past and should be running on late. Unusual Fleet won over this course and distance at this level during the fall meeting, has been chasing tougher of late, and should greatly appreciate this drop in class.


​​​RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: C

Use: 3-Righteous Dixie; 4-Summertimemischief

The second race is a weak maiden claiming sprint for fillies and mares. We’ll use two but without any degree of confidence. Summertimemischief was an okay runner-up at this level two races back and a repeat of that performance today should be good enough. Righteous Dixie, third in the same late February race that Summertimemischief was second in, looks like the one to fear most. Both should be included in rolling exotic play in a race that we’ll otherwise leave alone.


​​RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-She’sluckythatway; 5-Sheza Firstsamurai

She’sluckythatway tipped her hand with a good effort in a maiden $40,000 affair last month, finishing a decent second despite a slow break. She was scratched a couple of days ago for a lesser tag in what we see as a sign of confidence, and if the daughter of Lookin At Lucky moves forward as expected she’ll be tough to deny against this group. Sheza Firstsamurai shows up in a seller for the first time and should appreciate the class relief. She projects to be on or near the lead throughout. Both should be used in rolling exotic play with preference on top going to She’sluckythatway.


​​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT. Grade: B-                                      

Use: 1-Poshky; 5-Hobbits Hero

Poshky is the best closer and Hobbits Hero is the best speed in this one mile turf affair for $50,000 claimers. The former is a first-off-the-claim for Eddie Truman (25% with this angle) and switches to Kent Desormeaux, while the latter has won seven of 15 over the Santa Anita turf course and has several back numbers that are more than good enough to win. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics while slightly preferring Poshky on top.


​​RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Buy Me a Drink; 6-Venezuelan Gold

Venezuelan Gold was pitched a bit too high when fourth in a strong allowance race last time out but this starter’s optional claimer is much more within her scope and we’re expecting the Peter Miller-trained filly to regain her winning form. She’s drawn comfortably outside and should draft into an ideal pace-prompting position. Buy Me a Drink, finished second to ‘Gold when they met in late February and seems like a logical exacta partner once again. Preference on top goes to Venezuelan Gold but we’ll include both in our rolling exotics.

​​​RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B+

Single: 2-My Audubon

My Audubon has done everything like a good filly in the morning for Neil Drysdale and this daughter of Melbourne Cup winner Americain appears to be made of the right stuff. A series of strong workouts should have her fit and ready and in a below par field for the level she appears capable of winning first crack out of the box. Let’s make her a straight play and rolling exotic single.


RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 1-What’sontheagenda; 3-The Party Factor; 5-Lookin Loo

The seventh race is a contentious abbreviated sprint for 3-year-olds with several possibilities. We’ll use three and hope that’s enough. What’sontheagenda flashed promise in a couple of outings last summer at Del Mar and logically can be expected to be a better type this time around. His work tab at Los Alamitos catches the eye, and if the Doug O’Neill-trained colt leaves cleanly from the rail he could be tough to beat. Lookie Loo is a first-timer from the Bob Baffert barn with a strong enough work tab to warrant consideration. He’s bred to run farther than five and one-half furlongs but in an open affair may come up a live item on the tote. The Party Factor is improving with racing and with another forward move may be good enough to break through with a win. A nice second with a career top speed figure in his most recent outing, the son of The Factor has low profile connections but figures in the thick of things throughout.

​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 4-Aldrin; 7-Curlin Road

Aldrin, second in his last pair with solid performances at this level, is overdue for a win and appears to have found a field he can handle. The Miller-trained sophomore should draft into a favorable pace-stalking position and have every chance. Curlin Road is just one-for-18 lifetime and is clearly not one to trust, but he’s a fit on figures and should inherit a lovely second-flight position. He exits a live race and really won’t have to improve much to win. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.


​​RACE 9: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 4-Ashleyluvssugar; 5-Liam the Charmer; 9-Texas Ryano

Course specialist Ashleyluvssugar is strictly the one to beat at this 12 furlong distance – he’s won five out of nine starts over the Santa Anita turf course – and in a race without too much speed should find himself in a lovely pace-stalking/forcing position. Gary Stevens returns and knows him well. Liam the Charmer strikes us as a true mile and one-half type horse and finally gets his chance to show what he can do over a marathon trip. He’s unproven at this level but could move into a difference league under these conditions. Texas Ryano has a big look off his sharp win at Del Mar two runs back. The race-shape and shortened distance did him in last time out.




Saturday, March 25, 2017

​RACE 1: Post 12:35 ET. Grade: C+

Use:  2-True Pleasure; 5-Killin Them Softly; 6-First Distinction


​​RACE 2: Post 1:05 ET. Grade: B

Single: 1-Nico’s On the Run


RACE 3: Post 1:35 ET. Grade: B

Use: 3-Solfatara; 4-Diplomatic Affair

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:05 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 5-Mandeville; 7-Bradley’s Sunshine


​RACE 5: Post 2:35 ET. Grade: B+

Single: 2-Tu Exageres

​​​RACE 6: Post 3:05 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 1-Rediscover; 5-Mr. Sam; 8-Czarmo

​​RACE 7: Post 3:35 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 1-Tiz Bobby; 4-Rich Daddy; 8-Social Stranger


​​​RACE 8: Post 4:06 ET.  Grade: C+

Use: 3-Knockout Ranger; 9-Tarpys Zip; 10-Matter of Factor

RACE 9: Post 4:37 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 2-Bettabe Fast; 4-Biondetti Song; 7-Gio Patricia

RACE 10: Post: 5:08 ET.  Grade: B+

Use: 1-Secretary At War; 4-Silver Defense; 6-Storm Team


RACE 11: Post: 5:39 ET.  Grade: B+

Single: 5-Who’s the Lady


RACE 12: Post: 6:10 ET.  Grade: B+

Use: 3-Fear the Cowboy; 4-Zulu


RACE 13: Post: 6:41 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 7-Game Factor; 9-Egg Roll; 12-Silver Shaker




Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, GP) for March 25, 2017

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