The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
Friday, April 7, 2017
RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B
Interrogator earned a career top speed figure though well-beaten vs. tougher in a down-the-hill affair last month and this stretch out in trip combined with a significant class drop could make a world of difference. The Billy Morey-trained son of Afleet Alex switches to Tyler Baze and should draft into an ideal second flight position. In a five runner field, we’ll make him a straight play and rolling exotic single.
RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: C
Use: 2-Individual Design; 7-Autumn Twilight
Individual Design seems as good as any in this bottom-of-the-barrel claiming miler but at 8/5 on the morning line she really doesn’t offer much in the way of wagering value. The good news is that she’s won seven of 21 lifetime and has been first or second in six of 11 over this track, so if the John Brocklebank-trained mare fires her best shot she should regain her winning form. Autumn Twilight, first off the claim for Michael Pender, plummets from $16,000 to $6,250 in her first appearance for her new connections, not exactly a healthy sign. She does her best running on the front end and after being freshened since late February could be dangerous if feeling good. These are the two we’ll be using in rolling exotic play but not with any degree of confidence in a race that might be best left alone.
RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 3-Catfish Hunter; 5-Tony Blackjack
Tony Blackjack has the two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out angle we like and a pedigree that suggests this stretch-out in drip will be within his range. The gelded son of Grenzen retains Joe Talamo and should be capable of producing the last run. Catfish Hunter, in the money in both of his starts including a runner-up in a similar state-bred mile affair, has room for further improvement and should insure an honest pace. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics and then press a bit keying Tony Blackjack on top.
RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 2-Surfin’ Safari
The fourth race is a maiden claiming abbreviated sprint for state-bred maiden claiming fillies and mares. We’ll use two and hope to get by. Surfin’ Safari has been away since her only prior outing in November of 2014 – she earned a good number when third in a maiden special weight affair – and today shows up as a six-year-old in rather soft spot for the level. The daughter of Surf Cat has trained well enough to be fit and ready for a low profile barn that has done well in the past with comebackers. Let’s make her a strong straight play and rolling exotic single.
RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Starlite Style; 4-Queen Bee to You
State bred maiden special weight fillies and mares compete over a mile on turf in the fifth race. Queen Bee to You, in the money in her last pair, stretches out and tries turf for the first time and acts like she’ll enjoy these new conditions. She switches to Kent Desormeaux and figures to get the patient ride she prefers in a race that should have a decent amount of early speed. Starlite Style is a 10-race maiden and probably not one to trust, but she’s been knocking on the door – four straight seconds – and really won’t have to improve much to earn her diploma. The Hector Palma-trained filly offers no value at 6/5 on the morning line but you probably have to use her somewhere.
RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 4-Zanab; 6-Sid the Squid
Sid the Squid is comfortably placed outside and should have clear sailing throughout in this below-par restricted (nw-2) $25,000 claiming sprint for fillies and mares. She’s better than her last race shows – an awkward start cost her early position – and with a clean break today the Art Sherman-trained daughter of Sidney’s Candy seems capable of making amends for her recent failure as the even money favorite. Zanab is one-for-20 lifetime but has hit the board in five straight races and should at least land in the frame once again. She doesn’t really have much of a style – not real quick early and no real punch late – but this is a soft assignment and she might be able to clunk up and win it. We’ll try to get by using just these two but if you can afford to go deeper, go right ahead.
RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Jennyway U Want It; 2-Golden Light
Golden Light earned a career top speed figure when missing in a photo in a strong starter’s allowance affair last time out and a repeat of that effort today may be good enough to land her back in the winner’s circle. She has excellent early speed but doesn’t need the lead to win. Jennyway U Want It, freshened since mid-January, should enjoy a good ground-saving trip and rates a big look off her solid third place effort vs. similar over this course and distance. A couple of solid recent workouts at Los Alamitos should have her right on edge. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Golden Light.
RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: C
Use: 3-Afendi; 6-Son of the South
The finale is a bottom-rung maiden claiming miler that on paper looks inscrutable. We’ll go two-deep but not with any degree of confidence. Afendi retains Rafael Bejarano and adds blinkers so it’s entirely possible he’s better than her first two outings show. In fact, the Richard Baltas-trained son of Papa Clem may have more room for improvement than most of the others, so on that basis alone we’ll put him on top. Son of the South, a close fourth in a similar affair in early February, has worked steadily since, seems primed for a forward move, and with only four prior outings is another that may not have shown his best quite yet.
Friday, April 7, 2017
RACE 1: Post 1:05 ET. Grade: B
Use: 8-Kitty Kat Kate; 10-Fairyland
RACE 2: Post 1:39 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Blonde in the City; 2-Rhodium; 3-Annoy
RACE 3: Post 2:12 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 1-Money Flows
RACE 4: Post: 2:45 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Roustabout; 8-Barry’s Swing
RACE 5: Post 3:18 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 6-Princess Dinah; 7-Delusional K K; 8-Smart Kit
RACE 6: Post 3:51 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Joust; 3-Chubby Star; 12-Sweeping Paddy
RACE 7: Post 4:24 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 6-Tiger Eyes; 7-Pauline Revere; 11-True Boots
RACE 8: Post 4:57 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Forge Ahead Franki; 3-Mutaraamy; 8-Lookin for a Kiss
RACE 9: Post 5:30 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 3-Big Score; 4-Oscar Performance
RACE 10: Post: 6:03 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 4-Stella Nova; 7-Bayshore Drive; 11-Kirby’s Penny