February 10, 2023
“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 1-Atomic Drop; 2-Mobou
Backups/savers: 6-Tom’s X S
Forecast: With the rails out at 30 feet, inside draws are preferred in this one mile turf affair for first-level allowance Cal-bred older horses, especially in a field without much early speed. Atomic Drop is unproven on grass (three starts, one second place finish), but given the projected pace flow the Phil D’Amato-trained gelding should have every chance to inherit the role as the controlling speed and take it from there. A two-turn state-bred winner on dirt at Del Mar two races back, the son of Mucho Macho Man exits a much stronger (and productive) race and will be hard to catch if he is allowed to bowl along on the front end, his preferred running style. Mobou, away since October, likely will draft into a comfortable stalking position and be the one to fear most. A prior winner over this course and distance, the son of Uncle Mo shows a healthy, steady series of workouts that should have him plenty fit, though it must be noted that he does not have a history of firing his best shot fresh, so a lack of recency could make him vulnerable. Though he is considerably slower on speed figures than the two main contenders, Tom’s X S has plenty of room to improve and could be capable of producing a significant forward move in his third career starts. Back on grass following a maiden state-bred dirt sprint win last month, the James Cassidy-trained gelding has the pedigree to stretch out successfully so we’ll consider the Tom’s Tribute gelding as a “must use,” at least as a backup or a saver.
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RACE 2: Post: 12:59 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 5-Loana; 2-Filthy Fast
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Loana gets blinkers and Lasix for her sophomore debut and in a race begging to be won by an off-the-pace type the Craig Dollase-trained filly seems the obvious top pick. Her two sprint races last summer weren’t bad at all (she was six lengths clear of the rest when second at Los Alamitos two runs back), so if she returns as well as she left the daughter of Neolithic can produce the last run with a patient ride she appears to be prefer. Her recent work tab is brief but good, and the barn has solid stats with layoff runners, so we’ll assume that she’s fit and ready. Filthy Fast displayed good speed in her debut last month before being overrun in the stretch and winding up a distant second, but with that race behind her the Luis Mendez-trained sophomore has a right to be fitter and stronger today. She gets a break in the weights and shows three solid drills since raced, but today’s extra half furlong probably won’t do her any favors. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with Loana receiving preference on top.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:33 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Lasmuigh; 2-Habeas
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: We’ll double the race in this below average maiden claiming turf sprint for 3-year-olds while conceding that neither of the two main contenders can be deemed trustworthy. Best advice is to tread lightly. Lasmuigh didn’t show much of anything in his U.S. debut when facing infinitely stronger straight maiden foes over this course and distance in late December, but based on his Irish form, the Phil D’Amato-trained gelding should find this assignment well within his range. He gets top billing by default. Habeas brought $450,000 at last year’s OBS April Sale but after just two starts is being culled by the barn, not an encouraging sign. However, he’s a fit on numbers and adds blinkers, so the son of Tonalist must be considered a major player.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:03 PT Grade: C
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-A Broken Breeze; 3-Sacred Beauty
Backups/Savers: none
Forecast: Three of six entrants in this $12,500 claiming main track miler for fillies and mares exit the same race last month won by A Broken Breeze, who can score right back if she can turn in two alike. While consistency has never been her strong suit, the veteran mare apparently really prefers the Santa Anita main track, so let’s hope she can continue her good form with another off-the-pace score. Sacred Beauty, second without mishap as the favorite in that same race, always has preferred to run second or third (nine times) rather than win (twice), so but it wouldn’t take much to turn the tables on ‘Breeze. In a race that probably should be left alone, we’ll include both in our rolling exotic play while otherwise sitting it out.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:34 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Seismic Spirit; 8-Terrier
Backups/savers: 7-Raji
Forecast: This is a split of the third race, a high-priced ($62,500) maiden claiming turf dash for sophomores that is fraught with danger. Anything can happen. Seismic Spirit finished an okay second in a moderate straight maiden grass sprint at Aqueduct last fall and today surfaces in a seller for the first time after being considered good enough by original trainer Wesley Ward to run in the Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot in June. He gets blinkers and Lasix while attracting top jockey Juan Hernandez, so we’ll put him on top but certainly not single him. Terrier is a first time starter from the Tim Yakteen barn with Flavian Prat taking the colt, so the son of Into Mischief went through the ring as a yearling for $260,000 and apparently already has been given up on by his connections even before his first outing. A gate recent gate work (4f, :47.4hg, fourth fastest of 74) looks okay on paper, so in an unclassified affair he has to be tossed in. Raji was well beaten vs. straight maidens in both of his two prior starts but actually earned okay speed figures despite never offering a threat. The drop in class and the switch to grass provides hope that improvement is possible.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:05 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Fireman Dan; 2-Kant Beat the Rock; 3-Mitico
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: The inside three runners appear to be the main contenders in this restricted (nw-2) $16,000 claiming sprint for older horses. The problem is that none of the three appear to own a desire to win (they’re all one-for-something), so here’s another in the rolling exotic sequence that requires a spread. Fireman Dan, in the frame in his last pair but just 1-for-17 overall, is the one to beat based on his sharp runner-up effort at this level over this track and distance last month in which third place finisher Nolo Contesto came back to win easily. A repeat of that performance would be good enough. Kant Beat the Rock lack gate speed but has numbers that fit and takes a significant class drop to his lowest level effort, while Mitico has enough early speed to possibly shake loose early and become the controlling speed.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:36 PT Grade: A-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Maglev
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Maglev has much in is favor in this downhill turf sprint for second level allowance older horses. The Irish-bred gelding was a respectable second in a stronger-than-par race over this course and distance behind Motorious in his first outing in almost a year and seems likely to produce a forward move with that tightener under his belt. He shows the same pattern that produced a smart win in the Baffle Stakes last year, so despite his lack of tactical speed we’re expecting the Mark Glatt-trained gelding to be along in plenty of time. At 6/5 on the morning line, he’s a short price rolling exotic single.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:07 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Sheza Girly Girl; 1-Glorious Spring
Backups/savers: 8-Unwritten Code
Forecast: This competitive extended main track sprint for first-level allowance/optional claiming fillies and mares requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Sheza Girly Girl returns to her ($20,000) claim level after a couple of below standard runs when facing tougher foes in stakes and allowance company over the all-weather at Golden Gate Fields and seems quite capable of regaining her winning from against this group. A prior winner over the Santa Anita main track, the veteran daughter of Richard’s Kid has the proper style for this extended sprint trip (she’s a perfect 1-for-1 at six and one-half furlongs) and with some help up front should make her presence felt in the closing stages. Glorious Spring is a tad slower on speed figures that what she needs to be to win, but she’s lightly raced with further improvement likely, makes a positive jockey switch to Frankie, and could be dangerous if the pace up front is fast enough. Unwritten Code has reeled off three consecutive wins and once again will be the one to catch from her cozy outside post position. Her most recent score was accomplished on turf but she’s a two-time winner over the local main track and will take them as far as she can. This distance, though, might be a bit problematic for her.
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RACE 9: Post: 4:38 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Mamba Cool ; 3-Foothill
Backups/savers: 7-Give Me the Lute
Forecast: The finale is a grass grab bag for state-bred allowance/optional claiming Cal-bred older horses that offers several possibilities. Let’s zero in on the closing types due to the presence of early speed among several contenders that should guarantee legitimate early fractions. Mambo Cool has been freshened since September but has won off a layoff in the past, goes for a barn that has excellent stats with comebackers, and shows a solid series of workouts at Los Alamitos that should have him fit enough to fire a big shot off the bench. In the frame of four of five outings over the Santa Anita turf course (including a win), the son of Unusual Heat lands the favorable rail, and with good racing luck could produce a dangerous late kick under regular pilot Umberto Rispoli. At 5-1 on the morning line, he warrants a play. Foothill may have been a short horse off a year layoff when a close third in a starter allowance affair last month and is likely to be fitter and tougher today. He picks up Frankie and will benefit from a patient ride that he is sure to receive. Give Me the Lute plummets in class (he’s entered for $20,000) and is winless in seven prior starts over the local lawn. He’s stretching out again and is certain to employ gate-to-wire tactics, and in doing will compromise the other pace types. We’ll use him as a backup or a saver but nothing more.
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