February 11, 2023
“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 3-Runninwiththeboyz; 1-Dendera
Backups/savers: 7-Control Function
Forecast: The Saturday opener is a starter allowance turf miler for older fillies and mares that requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Runninwiththeboyz is a lightly raced and progressive filly with rising speed figures and a perfect record (two-for-two) on grass. The Jeff Mullins-trained daughter of Liam’s Map will be stretching out for the first time but based on pedigree and running style she should have no difficulty handling two turns. At 3-1 on the morning line, she’s our top pick. Dendera, first off the claim for Leonard Powell after narrowly missing in a $32,000 straight claimer, lands the good rail, picks up leading rider Juan Hernandez, and has numbers that are good enough to win at this level. She projects to inherit an ideal second flight, ground-saving trip and then have every chance to seal the deal from the quarter pole home. Control Function exits a first level allowance race and didn’t do badly when closing with interest to be fourth without threatening. This is an easier bunch, so if she can drop over from her outside draw, get some cover, and then find room to rally, she should be heard from in the late stages.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: C
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 6-Never Sway; 2-Adam’s Creed; 1-Big Bell; 7-Parco
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: The second race is another “need to spread” affair for older fillies and mares at six and one-half furlongs in a restricted (nw-2) $16,000 seller. Never Say is a late-running sprinter with the proper style for this extended sprint trip. She is making her first start for a barn that has good stats (22%, strong ROI) with the first-off-the-claim angle after being a too-little-too-late third in a similar affair last month. With today’s extra half furlong to work with, the Milton Pineda-trained daughter of Clubhouse Ride will have every chance to tag the leaders close home. Adam’s Creed was overmatched in starter allowance company on grass last time out but is realistically spotted today while returning to the main track. Like our top pick, she figures to be doing her best work late. Big Bell didn’t earn much of a figure when beating bottom-rung maiden $20,000 claimers off a long layoff earlier this season, but she has room to improve, acquires top jockey Juan Hernandez, and has finished first or second in three of four career starts over the local main track. Parco projects to be the controlling speed from her cozy outside draw and for that reason alone is a “must use” in rolling exotic play. In a race that probably should be treated with caution, we’ll use all four in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:29 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Jetovator; 4-Southern Horse
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Jetovator shows up in a claimer for the first time and at age seven this is probably where he belongs at this stage of his career. A four time winner over the Santa Anita turf course, the Peter Eurton-trained gelding has been freshened since October, shows a steady if not flashy series of recent workouts to have him fit and ready, and has run well off layoffs in the past. He looks like the most dangerous of the speed types. We’ll also toss in Southern Horse, now in the Phil D’Amato barn and a prototype late-running turf sprinter on his best day. “Win rider” Juan Hernandez returns and will have this eight-year-old veteran rolling late. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 4: Post: 1:59 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Crowning Gold; 5-Army Star
Backups/Savers: 2-Crypto Ride
Forecast: Crowning Gold andArmy Star , two-three finishers in a similar starter optional claiming sprint for sophomores, meet again, this time at the extended sprint distance of six and one-half furlongs. ‘Gold took a clear lead in that mid-January affair but was worn down late, missing by a neck while almost three clear of ‘Star, and a repeat performance today should make him hard to beat. Blinkers are removed, Mike Smith stays, and the son of Harbor the Gold projects to be the controlling speed. ‘Star, a beaten choice last time out, didn’t get the best of runs and seems certain to benefit from today’s extra half furlong. A repeat of his sharp win two races back puts him right there. Also worth including somewhere on your ticket is the class dropper Crypto Ride, beaten a head in the King Glorious Stakes at Los Alamitos two races back over a mile before finishing fourth in last month’s Cal Cup Derby. He might be most effective as a late-running sprinter and is a first time Lasix user.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:29 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Relaxed Artist
Backups/savers: 1-Papa Tiger
Forecast: We’ll try to get by using just two in the fifth race, a restricted (nw-2) six furlong turf sprint for older horses. Relaxed Artist, away since the fall and dropping into a seller for the first time, appears well-spotted to achieve his first North American victory. The Irish-bred colt is most comfortable when allowed to settle early and blast home, and against this group the Mark Glatt-trained colt should be capable of doing just that. A strong, healthy series of workouts leading up to this race is a positive sign for a trainer that has solid stats with layoff runners. Bay Area invader Papa Tiger represents inside speed in his first try on grass, and if he duplicates his all-weather form over this surface the Brian Koriner-trained gelding could be tough to catch. On pure numbers he’s a bit shy of where he needs to be, but the son of Smiling Tiger may stick better over the local lawn than he did up north, so at 5-1 on the morning he needs to be included.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:02 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Sauls Call; 9-Midnight Special; 10-Oil Can Knight
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: In a race that might be best left alone, we’ll go three-deep in this $10,000 claiming sprint for older horses while putting Sauls Call on top. A winner of four races from just 10 starts but off the track for nearly a year, the son of Stay Thirsty is tough to beat when he’s feeling up to it, but with a slow series of workouts and returning at the bottom level, there has to be a serious question of condition surrounding the Steve Miyadi-trained gelding. The good news is this stable has a terrific record with layoff runners (42% with a massive ROI according to DRF stats), so we’ll operate under the assumption that he’s fit enough to fire a big shot. “Win rider” Abel Cedillo returns, another promising sign. Midnight Special is winless in four starts over the Santa Anita main track, but the 7-year-old gelding has never raced this cheaply and may have found his friends after finishing a not-too-bad fourth of 10 in a $12,5000 dash last month. He’s worth using at 6-1 on the morning line, as is Oil Can Knight, listed at 7/2 following a confidence-building win at Los Alamitos three weeks ago. He loves the Santa Anita dirt track (five wins in 11 starts) and shows multiple successes under Edwin Maldonado, who gets the call.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:34 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Aligato
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Finally, we found a single. Aligato was quite unlucky when a runner-up in a similar affair over nine furlongs on grass last month but with clear sailing today and a bit more pace up front this tough and consistent gelding should be able to return to the winner’s circle. The shortening to a flat mile, especially from the advantageous rail post position, certainly should help, as will the switch to top jockey Juan Hernandez, so at 5/2 on the morning line we’ll make the Mark Glatt-trained gelding a strong win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:06 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Murray; 3-Let’sgetlucky
Backups/savers: 4-Spirit of Makena
Forecast: Murray, once highly regarded in the Bob Baffert barn, makes his first start since last July, and because he won his debut (by almost 11 lengths) we know he can fire fresh. He was good enough to earn speed figures as a 2-year-old that make him a solid fit against this group of seasoned vets and the work tab leads us to believe that he’ll be tight as a drum for his return. At 7/2 on the morning line under top rider Juan Hernandez, we’ll put him on top. Letsgetlucky fought hard to the end but missed by a head in tougher race last summer at Del Mar than the one he’s entered in today, so if the Munnings gelding is ready in his comeback (and he’s won fresh in the past) he’ll be a major player over a track that he’s won twice on from just four starts. Spirit of Makena was quite impressive in a pair of outings at Del Mar, a first-out maiden sprint win in August in a fast race and then when beaten a head in a first level allowance main track miler in a highly rated affair the following month. He was entered in a January 15 extended sprint at this level but was scratched and didn’t return to the work tab until two weeks later, so there has to be a bit of question surrounding his current condition. With that to ponder, we suspect he may need one, but we’ll still include him on our ticket as a backup.
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RACE 9: Post: 4:38 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 10-Fun Money; 7-Itzel; 4-Manhattan Jungle
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Fun Money clearly prefers turf to dirt and a sharp runner-up effort over this course and distance two races back in a strong allowance race points her out as the one to beat in this year’s edition of the Sweet Life Stakes. The Doug O’Neill-trained homebred has an ideal pace stalking style to keep her free of trouble, so while she’s probably one of several that might be capable of winning this race she’s probably the most dependable. Itzel earned a strong number and was visually impressive when beating maiden claimers over the flat course last month, so much so that this leap into stakes company could easily be within her range for new trainer Peter Miller. She projects to be on near the lead throughout and at 6-1 on the morning might prove to be an excellent gamble. Manhattan Jungle turns back from a couple of route tries, most recently when second in the Blue Norther Stakes after pressing the pace throughout. We suspect she’ll be more comfortable sprinting – she certainly was in France – so we anticipate the Michael McCarthy-trained Irish-bred sophomore will be held up early and allowed to take hold late.
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RACE 10: Post: 5:09 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 10-Nuclear; 2-Precision Strike
Backups/savers: 8-Boss Sully
Forecast: In a race begging to be won by a fresh face, let’s go with the $1.550 million yearling purchase Nuclear on top in this six furlong grass sprint for sophomores. A long-striding colt who’ll likely do his best work eventually around two turns, the son of Justify doesn’t really have all that much to beat in a race that came up lighter than par, so from his cozy outside draw under leading jockey Juan Hernandez the John Sadler-trained colt may be capable of winning at first asking. Precious Strike has shown flashes of good speed in his a.m. drills for trainer Doug O’Neill and looks like a live item in an open fray. The son of Gun Runner brought $485,000 at the 2022 OBS April sale and, like our top pick, won’t have to be a world beater to win from this group at first asking. Boss Sully is a first timer by Street Boss from the Brian Koriner barn. We haven’t seen any of his workouts on video but there are several fast drills on his resume to indicate he has at least some ability.
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