March 17, 2023
“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 1-Carpe Bellum
Backups/savers: 4-Hulk; 3-Lemon Drop Shot.
Forecast: Bottom-rung ($20,000) older maiden claimers sprint six furlongs in the Friday opener in a race begging to be won by a fresh face. Carpe Bellum, away for 10 months, has three prior outings, all on grass, but with a series of main track workouts that has him fit and ready the son of Carpe Diem should have no trouble with the switch in surface while greatly enjoying the much softer competition. If he leaves running from the rail, the Brian Koriner-trained gelding projects to find himself within striking range throughout and then have every chance to seal the deal when the pressure is turned on. Hulk, off the track since last July, might be a better type this time around for new trainer Doug O’Neill, who claimed the son of Dialed In for this price but then had to stop on him. The son of Dialed In primarily has been a two-turn turf performer but there’s no reason he can’t sprint on dirt against this group. His recent San Luis Rey Downs work tab is encouraging. Lemon Drop Shot is a 13-race maiden with eight runner-up efforts on his resume, so while he certainly can win the Jonathan Wong-trained 5-year-old hardly is one to trust. Numbers-wise he’s a fit but he’s already failed five times as the favorite, most recently at 50 cents on dollar two races back, so he’s a good one to gamble against.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 1-Bella Renella
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Bella Renella is a standout on paper in this $10,000 claiming sprint for older fillies and mares. Yes, she’ll have to leave smoothly from the rail to avoid trouble and must return as well as she left almost a year ago when she was stopped on after a three race winning streak that also included a pair of voided claims to due vet issues. Concerns aside, the work tab is fairly impressive, and since she’s waiver protected off a long layoff and therefore cannot be claimed, her connections get a free ride for a $24,000 purse. There probably won’t be any wagering value to be found at the short price she is sure to be, but we can use her as a free bingo space in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:59 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Talklessworkmore
Backups/savers: 2-Lil Richards Bello.
Forecast: Talklessworkmore shows the blinkers off angle that we like combined with good and consistent form at this level. The Shelbe Ruis-trained gelding has finished in the money in each of his last six starts, most notably when second with a career-top speed figure over this track and distance last month. Flavian Prat stays aboard and projects to have this son of Summer Front in a good stalking position throughout. It all adds up to 4/5 on the morning line. Lil Richards Bello isn’t as fast on pure numbers as our top pick but has been freshened since November and has trained well enough to be fit and ready. He’s run well over this main track in the past and has enough early speed to clear the field if that’s the strategy his connections wish to employ. Toss him in on a ticket or two as a saver.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:32 PT Grade: C
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Trojan Way; 2-Bonita Leona
Backups/Savers: none.
Forecast: There are six runners in this restricted (nw-3) $20,000 claiming main track miler for older fillies and mares, two of which should be capable of leaving the others behind. Trojan Way, claimed in her last pair, most recently out of a winning race at the (nw-2) $12,500 level, moves up in class but has numbers that make her the one to beat in this below standard race for the class. The concern is that she’s most effective on the front end, but from where she’s drawn (six of six) the daughter of Kantharos may have to be sent from the bell to get over to secure her preferred trip. That may be a bit of a challenge thanks to the presence of Bonita Leona, who exits a series of sprints and seems likely to be sent from the start to take advantage of her favorable two-hole post. It’s possible these two hook up early and do each other in, but whom among the other four have shown the willingness to produce any kind of rally? In a race that we’ll otherwise leave alone, we’ll go two-deep in rolling exotic play with a slight preference on top to Trojan Way.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:04 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Purified; 4-Famous Star
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Purified missed by a neck in a straight maiden main track miler in late December and returns in mid-March after more than two months on the sidelines while dropping into to a high priced claimer, hardly a healthy pattern for a lightly raced ridgeling that has finished in the money in all four of his career starts after bringing $385,000 at auction. Clearly, the 4-year-old son of Lord Nelson is being culled by the stable, but that doesn’t mean he can’t (or won’t) win today, only that his connections don’t view him as a long term prospect. First-off-the-claim Famous Star is re-equipped with blinkers and has numbers that are good enough to win at this level, but to be frank has never shown a whole lot of fight when put under pressure in the final furlong. The son of Frosted projects to be part of the early pace, and if he can sneak away early he might get brave late.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:36 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Big Summer; 2-Alice Marble
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Hillside Turf Course specialist Big Summer looks solid as usual in this year’s renewal of the Irish O’Brien Stakes for state-bred fillies and mares, having finished in the frame in each of er 12 career starts, with two of her four victories earned over this unique slalom layout. Most recently she just missed as the 9/5 favorite in the Wishing Well Stakes while running a winning race and equaling her career top speed figure, so with a repeat of that effort today the daughter of Mr. Big should be able to regain her winning edge. Please note that she is a possible scratch if the race is taken off the turf due to recent rains. Alice Marble will stay in the race on either surface. A close third as the 6/5 favorite behind our top pick in the Sunshine Millions Turf Sprint over this course and distance earlier this meeting, the genuine and consistent daughter of Grazen regained her winning form with dirt sprint victory in the Spring Fever Stakes last month and should be set to fire her best shot once again. Both should be used in rolling exotic play with perhaps a very slight edge on top to Big Summer, assuming the race remains on grass.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:08 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 12-Soul of Midnight; 10-Big Drinker
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: The second time starter Soul of Midnight is the logical top pick in this state-bred maiden $50,000 claiming sprint for 3-year-olds. The son of Straight Fire tipped his hand when a good second in his debut at this level earlier this meeting, and with a healthy, steady series of workouts in the interim the Dean Pederson-trained gelding seems very likely to step forward for a barn whose maidens always seem to improve with an outing under their belt. Big Drinker, first off the claim for Peter Miller, turned in a clunker at this level as the favorite but didn’t get the best of runs and seems certain to snap back to his best race for his new connections. His recent work tab at San Luis Rey Downs looks fine, and with the break in the weights afforded by good bug boy Aguilar, this son of Stay Thirsty should be the one to fear most. Preference on top goes to Soul of Midnight but we’ll have tickets using both in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:40 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 9-Tecumseh Caroline
Backups/savers: 3-Eleuthera
Forecast: There is a possibility of a surface switch (to dirt) due to recent rains. Tecumseh Caroline is unproven on grass and at this distance but she is a competitive sort, having won her last pair in good style, one sprinting and one routing, both on dirt. She’s very likely to enjoy a good pace-stalking style, so despite the concerns about this trip and surface she’s worthy of top billing based on her steadily improving pattern. b>Eleuthera adds blinkers – she’s worn them once before unsuccessfully – and is solid on numbers but has failed twice in her last three outings as the favorite. At this stage, we’re not sure if she prefers to be a speed type or a closer, and it appears her connections haven’t quite figured out her style, either. She’s also a big question mark should this race be transferred to the main track.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:12 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Street Ruckus
Backups/savers: 5-Piroli
Forecast: Street Ruckus may not be the type of horse you’d want to take a real short price on – he’s been a beaten favorite in his last two starts – but it’s hard to envision him getting beat in this below average allowance main track miler for older horses. He always seems to try hard, having finished in the money in each of his last six starts, but it’s been almost a year since he’s visited the winner’s circle, and that victory was accomplished on grass. In a race that lacks pace and from his favorable rail post position, the son of Street Boss looks likely to inherit the role as the controlling speed. Given that type of trip, he should be able to dominate as a no value rolling exotic single. We’re not sure if Piroli is as good (or as fast) as his last race shows but if the number was real the Battle of Midway gelding certainly deserves some consideration, at least as a saver.
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RACE 10: Post: 5:42 PT Grade: A-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Window Shopping; 6-Make It Snow
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: This is a stronger than par maiden turf miler for sophomores and it should take a good filly to win it. Window Shopping was flat out given a race in her debut last fall at Del Mar, eventually winding up sixth but beaten just over four lengths after encountering some traffic through the lane while never being asked for anything close to her best, yet she still galloped out far in front into the clubhouse turn. The daughter of American Pharoah certainly has much more natural talent than the line will show, and her recent impressive dirt workouts leave no doubt that she is plenty fit and ready for a stable that has good stats with the layoff angle. Additionally, she gets Lasix and Flavian Prat. While we normally prefer to see two sprints prior to a stretch out, Make It Snow ran so well in her debut at six furlongs that we expect her to provide out top pick with some legitimate competition. The daughter of Empire Maker rallied wide and closed with courage in a hot race while just getting her feet wet, and though the barn has weak stats with the second time starter angle this filly might prove to be the exception to the rule. These are the two we’ll be including on our rolling exotic ticket with the main punch going to Window Shopping.
