March 12, 2023
“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 6-Raji 1-Phosphorescence
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast : A maiden special weight grass miler ushers in the Sunday program (don’t forget to move your clocks ahead!) but most of these already have been exposed as being of maiden claiming material so let’s take a shot with Raji in his first try around two turns. A closing second in a productive heat with a career top speed figure when switched to grass and dropped to the maiden $50,000 level last time out, the son of Ransom the Moon stretches out for the first time, and if he’s ever going to handle a route of ground it’ll likely be in his first try. The Doug O’Neill barn has solid stats with the sprint-to-route angle, so at 6-1 on the morning line this sophomore colt offers a reasonable gamble in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics. Phosphorescence< has a couple of recent local sprint preps under his belt, lands the rail, and shows the always dangerous blinkers off angle. It wouldn’t be surprising to him on the front end as the controlling speed and be tough to catch in that role. Toss him in somewhere.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Nobe
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Nobe shows the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch out pattern with the favorable inside draw coupled with an improving speed figure pattern, so let’s put her on top in a woefully weak maiden claiming $30,000 main track miler for sophomore fillies. She’s no bargain at or near her morning line of 2-1 but deserves top billing by default. You can use her as a no value rolling exotic single, spread the race and hope for a price, and simply sit it out and await better opportunities later on.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:29 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Bowl of Cherries; 6-Angelcents; 2-Teen Drama
Backups/Savers: none.
Forecast: We’ll go three-deep in his starter’s allowance five furlong turf dash for fillies and mares hoping to catch a decent middle price. Bowl of Cherries is a two-time winner over the local lawn and always has been effective as a late-running sprinter when properly spotted. She has several back speed figures that make her a solid fit at this level and is reunited with “win rider” Aguilar, so we’re expecting the Los Alamitos-based mare to produce a good late kick at 5-1 on the morning line. Angelcents, likely the quickest of the quick, is dangerous at this shortened trip and will greatly appreciate this class drop from the first level allowance ranks. If she can shake loose early without pressure, the daughter of Goldencents could get brave. The form on Teen Drama strongly suggests she is best as a turf sprinter, so with the route-to-sprint clearly on display the 4-year-old filly by Bayern seems likely to produce significant improvement. Look for her to be rolling from off the pace through the lane.
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RACE 4: Post: 1:59 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Shut Up Michael
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Restricted (nw-3) $20,000 sprinters compete over five and one-half furlongs in the first leg of the Pick-6 in what looks to be an extremely challenging affair. Best advice is to use as many as your budget allows. Worth noting is that all six entrants are listed at 4-1 or lower on the morning line. Shut Up Michael performed poorly in his last two starts up north but drops drastically in class, tries conventional dirt for the first time, and is re-equipped with blinkers for new trainer Jonathan Wong. With several back speed figures good enough to beat this field and a healthy recent work tab, the Irish-bred gelding has a right to snap back following a two month vacation, so he may be worth a bit of a gamble.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:29 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Yeng Again; 6-Standing O
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Yeng Again exits the infinitely tougher Clocker’s Corner Stakes taken by Lane Way (runner-up Motorious already has exited the race to win), and after cutting out the fractions and paying the price late the Carpe Diem gelding seems likely to improve at this level and with a patient ride he probably prefers. He was a clever winner over the Hillside Course during the fall meeting and a repeat of that career-top equaling performance today should be good enough. We’ll toss in Standing O on backup ticket while recognizing the likelihood that the come-backing Phil D’Amato-trained gelding might be in the field simply to shake the rust off while prepping for longer. He is, however, a three time winner over the Santa Anita lawn, and actually won a six furlong grass dash on the flat course when last seen nine months ago, so he could be more cranked up than we’re giving him credit for.
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RACE 6: Post: 2:59 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Silent Beauty
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast This restricted (nw-2) $16,000 claiming sprint for older fillies and mares doesn’t offer a whole lot to work with. Silent Beauty is listed as the 9/5 morning line choice based on recent form that make her the logical top pick. In the frame in her last three starts, the Peter Eurton-trained filly was a decent second at this level earlier this meeting in a race that produced a respectable career top speed figure, and if she can duplicate that performance today it should be good enough to land her in the winner’s circle. She began her career with four races on grass (all in straight maiden company) but since being dropped to her proper level and switched to dirt, the daughter of Tale of the Cat has more than paid her bills. In the absence of serious competition, she’s a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:29 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Australia Mia
Backups/Savers: none.
Forecast: Australia Mia came up a tad short in her U.S. debut earlier this season when weakening in the final furlong to finish third as the favorite in the Astra Stakes, but that was a tough task in her U.S. debut over 12 furlongs in her first outing since last June. She’ll be fitter and stronger today and much more comfortable shortening up to a mile and one-quarter, her preferred distance. A high quality, multiple stakes winner in Chile, she has a chance to be a major player in the older long distance grass division as she gets acclimated for trainer Michael McCarthy, so with Frankie riding her back and at 3-1 on the morning line she’s a win play and rolling exotic single in this year’s renewal of the Santa Ana Stakes-G3.
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RACE 8: Post: 3:59 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-I Got Munny; 2-Good Vibes Only
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Tough race, a rare straight $50,000 claiming sprint for older horses. I Got Munny once would bury this group but has been stale for few races so trainer Mark Glatt takes the opportunity to potentially steal a purse following a non-threatening third behind the talented Spirit of Makena in a fast, highly rated allowance dash last month. The veteran gelding has won from the rail in the past, so if he can work out a decent trip the son of Munnings might be able to regain his winning form. Good Vibes Only is a perfect three-for-three over the Santa Anita main track and on that horse-for-course angle alone he’s a major contender. The John Sadler-trained son of Maclean’s Music has been freshened since November, but a strong series of workouts should have him fit and ready. These are the two we’ll be using in rolling exotic play with a slight preference on top to I Got Munny.
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RACE 9: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Chaos Theory; 11-My Summer Dream
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Chaos Theory has more than sufficient back class to extend his winning streak to three in this starter’s allowance turf sprint and it is an encouraging sign that he is being protected today after capturing a pair of recent $25,000 claimers since being haltered by trainer Mike Puype. Outstanding grass jockey Hector Berrios fits him perfectly and will give him the patient ride required. The veteran gelding may be the one to beat but must fear My Summer Dream, the morning line favorite at 2-1. Though unfavorably drawn on the far outside in this five furlong dash, the Bay Area-based gelding should be quick enough to get over and secure a reasonable second flight position and then have his chance to make his presence felt in the final stages. Both should be included in your rolling exotics with preference on top to Chaos Theory.
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