March 3, 2023
“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 4-Ruby Nell
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Ruby Nell had a nightmarish trip in her debut as the 2-1 favorite in a maiden turf sprint earlier this meeting, and it was somewhat remarkable that she managed to rally with good energy to be an excellent second behind subsequent Lady of Shamrock Stakes winner Ag Bullet in a fast, highly rated race. However, much of her troubled journey was self-caused. The daughter of Bolt d’Oro was sluggish leaving the barrier, dropped back to last and then became rank and attempted to lug out before being forced to steady in traffic two or three times down the backside. Rallying widest into the lane, the Richard Mandella-trained $1.2 million auction purchase finally dropped her head and made up a considerable amount of ground in the final furlong without being knocked about before galloping out strongly and with plenty left. In recent works, she has continued to display an immense amount of raw ability, though continuing to pull, and appearing unsettled, so if she doesn’t improve mentally it would not be surprising to see her get herself beat again. On the positive side, the switch to dirt shouldn’t be an issue, nor should the stretch out in trip. It all makes for a somewhat risky gamble on a filly that is more than good enough to win today and then go on to bigger and better things.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: C
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 4-Righteously; 3-Starship Sky; 1-Sangre Azul
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: The second half of the early daily double is a bottom-rung $10,000 claiming main track miler that attracted six older fillies and mares, none of them trustworthy. We’ll go three deep in our rolling exotics but otherwise pass the race. Righteously tries two turns for the first time after finishing a distant second in a tougher sprint that should set her up nicely for this assignment. Trainer Jeff Mullins has solid stats with the stretch out angle, and with Flavian Prat riding her back the daughter of Square Eddie should find herself in a pace-stalking position without having to be sent. If she’s ever going to handle a distance of ground, it most likely will be in her first try, so we’ll give her top billing pretty much by default. To her credit, she is a six time winner; however, you have to go back a couple of years to find her last victory and her record of zero-for-eight over the Santa Anita main track is concerning. Starship Sky has chased (and been non- competitive against) much tougher rivals of late, so perhaps this class drop can help turn things around. She’s 2-for-30 in her career, but at least both wins were accomplished over the local main track. She’s likely to lag to the quarter pole and then hope the main competition comes back to her. Sangre Azul was a life-and-death winner for $12,500 over this track and distance last month and similar front-running tactics under bug boy Alsagoor likely will be employed again. If not pressured early she could get brave like last time.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:33 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Whimsical Heir; 4-Kiss My Kat
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Whimsical Heir squandered a perfect pace-stalking trip when third in her debut in a five-runner field at Del Mar in her debut in early December but retains top jockey Juan Hernandez and has every right to produce a forward move in this state-bred maiden special weight sprint for older fillies and mares. The race earned a decent speed figure so a similar performance today could be good enough. Kiss My Kat was crushed on the tote (even money) when returning off a long layoff in a maiden $50,000 sprint earlier this meeting and looked all over a winner in mid-stretch before hitting a wall and winding up second to be beaten nearly three lengths in a slow, low-rated race. She didn’t get away well, and the poor start possibly cost her the race, so with that effort behind her, today’s shorter trip, and a clean break from the gate the Kristin Mulhall-trained daughter of Curlin to Mischief could get loose early and never look back. We’ll include both in rolling exotic play in a race that we’ll probably otherwise leave alone.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:05 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Let Him Do It; 4-Mentirosa
Backups/Savers: none
Forecast: Let Him Do It, a closing third in a similar $20,000 claimer at Los Alamitos, gets an extra half furlong to work with from a cozy outside draw while adding Lasix and top rider Juan Hernandez, so the son of Good Magic should have no excuses. We’ll also include Mentirosa, who finished just ahead of our top pick in that same race in early December and has winning form over the Santa Anita main track. They’re tough to separate, but given the projected favorable trip, we’ll prefer the John Sadler-trained colt while using both in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:35 PT Grade: C
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Silver N Black; 6-Herecomegeorgieboy; 4-Bronko Nagurski
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: This race originally was carded for turf but will be contested on the main track. Four of the seven entrants in this nine furlong Cal-bred maiden affair exit the same race (contested at a mile on grass) won by Yo Time last month. Today’s switch in surface certainly tosses a monkey wrench into the handicapping process. On paper, Herecomegeorgieboy looks like the best of that lot, having finished second while almost three lengths clear of the others. In that race, he produced an extended run wide from the three furlong pole to the wire and though never changing leads battled bravely to the finish while running a winning race in defeat. But there are concerns, not the least of which is whether he can duplicate that performance on dirt. Also, his speed figures have stagnated. Bronko Nagurski finished a non-threatening third in that race, but it was just his third career start, so improvement is possible. His only dirt race (his debut sprinting) was non-competitive, but his pedigree suggests he should be able handle the main track. Silver N Black, claimed when third out of a maiden $25,000 affair at Gulfstream Park last month by trainer Bob Hess, Jr., arrives fit and ready with numbers that make him a major contender. Yes, his last race was on turf but his prior form on dirt wasn’t bad. These are the three we’ll be using in our rolling exotics – perhaps with a slight edge on top to Silver N Black – but best advice is to tread lightly.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:05 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Outright; 2-Lookin for Revenge
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Outright just finished second in a $12,500 affair and returns at the $10,000 level while once again facing Lookin for Revenge, who just beat him in that race last month. ‘Revenge enjoyed the benefit of a front-running trip in a slowly run race and was able to dominate throughout, but we suspect the pace will be a bit quicker this time and the change in race flow could allow Outright to produce a winning late kick. We’ll include both in rolling exotic play while perhaps giving a very slight edge on top to Outright.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:35 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Uncontrollable; 5-Nyvan
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: This race has been transferred to dirt, much to the benefit of Uncontrollable, who exits a series of main track graded stakes and should greatly appreciate this drop to the state-bred allowance ranks. She adds blinkers, and while her numbers are just okay, this is a group she should be able to outrun. Nyvan didn’t get the best of trips when third in the Lady Shamrock Stakes on turf last month while earning by far a career top speed figure, so if she repeats that effort with a clean trip the daughter of Nyquist should be able to at least outrun her 6-1 morning line odds. In a field without much pace, she should find herself within striking range throughout. As for the surface switch, she should be able to handle dirt.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:05 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): Baladi; 5-Bold Endeavor; 4-Royal Act
Backups/Savers: none
Forecast: Here is a $50,000 claiming main track miler that is a tough nut to crack, with several possibilities to consider. We’ll pass the race while using three in our rolling exotics. Baladi was overmatched in a tougher first-level allowance grass miler last month but returns to dirt, drops to his proper level and may be able to produce a winning late kick if he gets enough help up front, with the pace projecting to be a bit quicker than average. He’s a fit on speed figures but so far he’s been most effective around one turn. Bold Endeavor and Royal Act finish a neck apart when first and second, respectively for this price over this track and distance in December. It wasn’t a great race (both came back on the raise to get trounced) but this appears to be below par race for the level, so both should run well enough to be dangerous.
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RACE 9: Post: 4:35 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Post Facto 2-Hacking It Up
Backups/savers: 1-De La Luna
Forecast: This race has been switched to the main track. Post Facto has rising numbers and seeks his third straight win after breaking his maiden on dirt and then taking a similar optional claimer on grass. A sharp five furlong drill (:59 4/5) on the main track last week indicates he’s doing well and ready for another forward move. Hacking It Up left his previous (dirt) form behind when a clever winner from optional claiming ($50,000) Cal-bred foes on grass last month, winning with something left and earning a sharp, career top number. Because he was entered for the tag in that race, he’s eligible for this starter’s allowance and will be capable of scoring right back with a similar performance. Of course, we’re not sure if he’ll regress with the return of the main track, so our confidence level is low. De Luna has raced on nothing but turf or synthetic but actually has a pure dirt pedigree, so we’ll include him on our ticket. The son of Tiznow beat straight maidens up north in January with a speed figure that makes him a solid fit in this $50,000 starter optional claimer.
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