“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 4-Naismith; 3-Lil Bro Coop
Backups/savers: 1-Kawasaki
Forecast: Naismith exits a fast, highly rated straight maiden affair and seems certain to greatly appreciate this return to the high priced maiden claiming ranks. He’s not one to trust – none of these are – but if allowed to display his natural early speed the Richard Mandella-trained colt could get loose on the lead and become very brave. On pure numbers he’s tops in the field. Lil Bro Coop wasted a perfect trip when third in a similar affair at Del Mar last month but based strictly on figures he’s a major player in a soft field. Winless in six starts over the local lawn, the son of War Envoy appears to lack a winning punch but if our top pick fails to fire he’s the logical alternative. Kawazaki is worth tossing in as a saver. He’s assured a ground-saving trip from the rail, and ithe addition of blinkers could produce a forward move in what will be just his fourth career start.
Notable Workouts:
Lil Bro Coop (Sept. 16, 4f, :51.3h TT). Grade: B-
In blinkers, slow drill but was just breezing along, final three furlongs in :37.3, never asked. In good shape and probably has some improvement in him.
View Workout Video
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RACE 2: Post: 1:28 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 6-Darling Donna
Backups/savers: 1-Crimson Rose
Forecast: Darling Donna takes a significant class drop from starter allowance $50,000 company to this restricted (nw-2) $32,000 seller, and from her cozy outside draw the Vladimir Cerin-trained filly should have every chance to regain her winning form. A repeat of her nine length maiden claiming romp two races back will be more than sufficient, so she’ll get the main punch, but on a ticket or two you may want to consider Crimson Rose as a back-up. She’s reasonably competitive on numbers and the switch to top rider Juan Hernandez has to be considered a plus.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:01 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Bulletproof One; 5-Freedom Flyer
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Ex-classer Bulletproof One, a multiple stakes winner with earnings just shy of $400,000, returns off a 13-month layoff while being risked for a tag ($80,000) for the first time, not really a sign of confidence, although a case could be made that this is where she realistically belongs. Her work tab at San Luis Rey Downs seems a little light, but the barn has superior stats (22% with a strong ROI with comebackers), so despite the mixed signals we’ll put her on top. Freedom Flyer has been two-turning most of the career, but this route-to-sprint angle generally is quite effective over this course and distance, so we’re expecting the daughter of Constitution to have a say in the matter from off the pace. Numbers-wise she’s a good fit with these.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:31 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Conundrum; 3-Party Town
Backups/Savers: none
Forecast: Conundrum was out of his element when facing first-level allowance foes earlier this month at Del Mar but this realistic class drop to the restricted (nw-3) $20,000 claiming ranks should get him back on track. From his cozy outside draw over the extended sprint distance of seven furlongs that has proven to be his favorite trip (two wins from three starts), the Super Saver gelding may be a short price worth taking. Party Town projects as the controlling speed and finished a respectable third under these conditions at Del Mar in his most recent start. This will be his third start in his current form cycle, so improvement is likely. Toss him in on a ticket or two as a saver in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:01 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-A Little Bit Crazy; 5-Candy On Top; 4-Finnley’s Kitten
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Here’s an inscrutable maiden special weight turf miler for state-bred fillies, with none of the main contenders in this six-runner affair appearing trustworthy. A Little Bit Crazy has been trouble prone in her four race career (most of it self-caused) but from her outside draw she should be able to fold over and secure a reasonable spot outside in the clear and then have every chance from there. Never worse than fourth but already a twice-beaten favorite, the Jonathan Wong-trained filly has tactical speed but might be most effective if held up early and produced late. Her speed figures are lower than par for this level, but the other main players are pretty slow, too. Candy On Top is a one-paced grinder with six prior outings but at she did earn a career top number – moderate as it was – when finishing third in a similar affair at Del Mar in late August. With another slight forward, move, she’ll be right there. Finnley’s Kitten should be forwardly placed, perhaps even on the lead, and if she can make the running without undue pressure the daughter of Kitten’s Joy may get brave and be hard to catch. This is her second start off a layoff (barn has strong stats with this angle), so she deserves a serious look.
Notable Workouts:
Finnley’s Kitten (Sept. 25, Santa Anita, 4f, :47.3h TT). Grade: B
Did okay under light late coaxing but swapped back to her left lead approaching the wire while finishing in full stride in solo half mile training track drill for V. Cerin. Prefers turf and has a bit of room to improve.
View Workout Video
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RACE 6: Post: 3:31 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Whiskey Blue; 4-Awesome Pamela
Backups/savers: 3-Starship Sky; 8-Liberalism
Forecast: Here’s another race that requires considerable coverage in rolling exotic play. Whiskey Blue galloped out better than the line will show in her recent fifth place finish at this restricted (nw-2) $16,000 level, and if she’s ever going to be successful around two-turns, it’ll most likely be in her first try. The daughter of Maclean’s Music doesn’t quite have the speed to be effective sprinting but over a mile in a race without much pace she is likely to be forwardly placed and have every chance against a field of one-paced grinders. A recent bullet half mile workout (:47 2/5, fastest of 60) catches the eye, so let’s go for a price and put her on top. Awesome Pamela has a prior win and has never finished off the board in three starts over the Santa Anita main track, so her lack of tactical speed notwithstanding the Black Heap-trained mare must be considered a major player. Her speed figures are average at best but at least she should be finishing from the quarter pole home. Starship Sky and Liberalism may be worth including on your ticket as well, at least as backups. The former is 1-for-25 during her career but her sole victory came over the local main strip, while the latter has never routed but like our top pick may step forward in her first try over a distance of ground.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:01 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-First Peace; 2-Kid Azteca
Backups/savers: 4-Dr. Soulfire
Forecast: First Peace exits a killer race – the one that Speed Boat Beach set a track record at Del Mar – and under the circumstances didn’t run badly despite winding up sixth, beaten almost 14 lengths. With the switch to grass for his second career start and facing an infinitely easier assignment, the Mark Glatt-trained colt seems certain to improve a bunch, especially if he leaves clean from the rail. The barn’s second time starters usually step forward, so at 4-1 on the morning line there’s some wagering value available. Kid Azteca is the likely choice and one to beat. Back sprinting after failing to see out the trip when a weakening fourth over a mile in his most recent start, the Peter Miller-trained colt retains top rider Juan Hernandez and should be able to settle into a second flight, stalking position and then have every chance from the quarter pole to the wire. As a backup, Dr. Soulfire is worth some consideration. The son of West Coast exits two tougher maiden sprints, tries grass, and continues to show some spark in his morning trials. He might be a late factor with the switch to top turf rider Umberto Rispoli.
Notable Workouts:
Dr. Soulfire (Sept. 23, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.3h). Grade: B-
Went off quickly in company with Fore Flag (4f, :49h) and was much best while traveling out to the seven furlong pole under mild coaxing only (workmate asked, couldn’t keep up) while coming the final three eighths in :24.3 and :37.1 on our watches. Okay drill for son of West Coast; has a right to improve over a distance of ground.
View Workout Video
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RACE 8: Post: 4:31 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Redline; 6-Traegar
Backups/savers: none
Forecast:Redline seems under valued at even money on the morning line and his late-running style probably works best in extended sprints but he’s fast on figures, continues to work well for John Sadler, and should be able to handle this first-level allowance assignment. The barn’s “go-to” rider Juan Hernandez picks up the call. Traegar is much slower on numbers than the favorite but with just two lifetime starts the son of Congrats has plenty of room for further improvement. He’s drawn perfectly outside and can dictate the pace flow throughout. In a race that probably is best left alone, you can use both in rolling exotic play with the main push going to Redline.
Notable Workouts:
Redline (Sept. 16, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.3h). Grade: B
Maybe a tad second best but did well enough inside Hawker (same time) for J. Sadler, :24.1 and :48.3, neither one asked much. Late-running sprinter has first level allowance conditions available with form that suggests he likes this main track.
View Workout Video
Traegar (Sept. 24, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02.1h). Grade: B-
Not the best of movers (egg-beater action) but went okay in solo five furlong drill for M. Glatt, final half mile in :24.1 and :49.1, ridden some in the final furlong. Might be the type that runs better than he works; comes off solid maiden sprint win at Del Mar and will get tested on the raise.
View Workout Video
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RACE 9: Post: 5:01 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Curly Esa; 3-Kazuhiko; 1-National Generaux
Backups/savers: 2-Tokamak
Forecast: Let’s take another stab with the sprinter-stretching-out angle (see today’s sixth race) in this maiden claiming turf miler for older horses. Curly Esa remains a maiden after eight outings, but this will be his first try around two turns, so it’s possible that he’ll leave his previous form behind by establishing the pace and then getting brave. The barn hasn’t won a race all year (zero-for-23) but based on his sprint figures the son of Munnings has a legitimate price chance. Kazuhiko is an 11-race maiden but has hit the board on six occasions and may be the most dangerous of the closing types. National Generaux earned a much improved speed figure when fourth in straight maiden company at Del Mar in mid-August and not much better will be needed today. If you feel you need to spread deeper, consider Tokamak, if for no other reason that he sports the popular blinkers off angle while also facing maiden claimers for the first time.
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