“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 1-Quintecents; 3-One More Bid
Backups/savers: 4-Dancing Rinca
Forecast: Quintecents ran well enough to win but settled for second in a hot race at this level at Del Mar last month. A similar effort today from his favorable rail draw should allow the Michael McCarthy-trained gelding to earn his diploma in what will be his sixth career start. Based on speed figures, he appears pretty solid. One More Bid earned a career top number in his only prior outing on grass (a sprint) and the son of California Chrome should be every bit as effective while again stretching out to two turns. He’s been a bit trouble prone so far in his career but with a clean trip today he should be quite competitive. Dancing Rinca, a respectable fourth in the same race our top pick exits, was making his first start in 10 months and has every right to be fitter and stronger today. A :59 4/5 training track drill since raced is encouraging, so toss him in somewhere, at least as a back-up or a saver.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:03 PT Grade: X
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 4-Annie Graham
Backups/savers:
Forecast: Annie Graham just annihilated a $20,000 claiming field by nine lengths and was haltered by Jeff Mullins, who wheels her back at the same level, effectively saying, “if you want her, take her.” Clearly, this daughter of Grazen is not viewed by her new connections as any long term prospect, which makes for a shaky play at or near her morning line of 6/5 (and likely to go lower). You can use her as a no-value rolling exotic single or better yet simply pass the race.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:34 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Gold Phoenix
Backups/savers: 4-Masteroffoxhounds
Forecast: Gold Phoenix packs a powerful late kick and should be along in time in similar fashion to his Del Mar Handicap-G2 win last month. This is a shorter trip by a furlong, but it shouldn’t matter. Never off the board in five career starts over the Santa Anita turf course, the lightly raced Irish-bred gelding will have to overcome the projected race flow (slow early, fast late) but he did so last time and looked very good doing it. The other main player also hails from the Phil D’Amato barn, Masteroffoxhounds, who was fifth after pressing a crawling pace in the same race Gold Phoenix exits. The son of War Front likes this turf course (in the frame in all five prior outings) but you have to go back to February of 2021 to find his last win. Both can be included in rolling exotic play, with Gold Phoenix deserving of the main punch.
Notable Workouts
Gold Phoenix (Sept. 18, Santa Anita, 4f, :47h TT). Grade: B+
In blinkers, never changed leads but did well in quick training track drill inside Macadamia (same time), final three furlongs in :11.2 and :34.2 while head-and-head throughout without need of undue coaxing. Maintains his edge.
View Workout Video
Masteroffoxhounds (Sept. 25, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.3h TT). Grade: B+
Excellent solo training track drill for P. D’Amato, final three furlongs in :11.2 and :35.2, mild coaxing late. On edge.
View Workout Video
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RACE 4: Post: 2:06 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Fun to Dream
Backups/Savers: none
Forecast: Fun to Dream was beaten on the square at 50 cents on the dollar at Del Mar last month but finds a logical spot to make amends in her first try around two turns and her first without blinkers. Certainly bred to improve routing (Arrogate), the Bob Baffert-trained filly isn’t particularly fast on numbers and is likely to be over bet but she should be hard to beat, nonetheless. In another race that offers little to no wagering value, you can use her as a rolling exotic single or simply sit it out.
Notable Workouts:
Fun to Dream (Sept. 25, Santa Anita, 4f, :49h). Grade: B
Easy solo drill for B. Baffert, :24.2 and :49.1 to the wire before being allowed to gallop out to the seven furlong pole with energy. Have to think she’ll be comfortable stretching out to two turns.
View Workout Video
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RACE 5: Post: 2:38 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Irideo; 3-Beyond Brilliant
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: This year’s edition of the City of Hope Mile-G2 should boil down to two main players. Irideo, the upset winner of the Wickerr Stakes at Del Mar in July, verified the strength of that performance by earning a career top speed figure when a sharp runner-up in the subsequent Del Mar Mile-G2 last month. Beaten on the square by the extremely talented Hong Kong Harry but losing little in defeat, the Argentine-bred gelding will have to worry about Beyond Brilliant in this one mile grass event. ‘Brilliant can, indeed, be brilliant on his best day – especially when he can establish the running without pressure – and after getting run down late in the Eddie Read S.-G2 at Del Mar in July, the son of Twirling Candy has put together a solid series of workouts that should have him fit and ready. Irideo may be a tad more trustworthy so we’ll give him top billing, but both should be included in rolling exotic play.
Notable Workouts:
Irideo (Sept. 23, Santa Anita, 4f, :49h). Grade: B+
Cruise control in solo half mile main track breeze, easy action while just galloping along looking sharp and ready. Maintains his top form.
View Workout Video
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RACE 6: Post: 3:08 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Forbidden Kingdom
Backups/savers: 3-Howbeit; 7-Todo Fino
Forecast: Away since April and facing older rivals for the first time while dropping back to a sprint, Forbidden Kingdom has plenty to prove in this year’s renewal of the Santa Anita Sprint Championship, but he’s already established himself as a stakes-quality son of American Pharoah with two graded wins on his resume and has shown he can fire fresh, having won his debut during the summer of his 2-year-old season. He’s fast enough on numbers to beat this field and could easily be a better type off the bench after being given the spring and summer off to fill out and mature. Let’s assume that trainer Richard Mandella (25% with a powerful ROI with comebackers) has his fit and ready and make him a rolling exotic single. Those preferring to have some protection should consider Howbeit and Todo Fino on backup tickets. The former is a three-time winner over the Santa Anita main track with the ability to win pressing the issue or from off the pace, while the latter is a talented Chilean-bred sprinter with 10 wins from 15 career starts and certain to enjoy clear sailing from his cozy outside draw.
Notable Workouts:
Forbidden Kingdom (Sept. 28, Santa Anita, 3f, :36.3h). Grade: B+
Hard held in sharp blowout for R. Mandella while gearing up for weekend sprint stakes. Appears to have retained all of his speed and should fire a big shot off the bench.
View Workout Video
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RACE 7: Post: 3:38 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Gregorian Chant ; 1-Lane Way; 8-Dubai Key
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Here’s a messy downhill slalom event that requires considerable coverage in rolling exotic play. Several have credentials to win but we’ll give Gregorian Chant the edge on top due to his stellar record (five wins from 11 starts) over the Santa Anita turf course, including a victory over this course and distance in good company earlier this year. He’s capable at any distance up to a mile but has proven to be most comfortable as a late-running sprinter. Lane Way is another prototype turf closer with the proper style for the Hillside Course, and if he can work out a decent trip from his rail draw the Into Mischief gelding should make his present felt late. He enters this race fresh from a career top performance when second in the Green Flash H. to Lieutenant Dan, who is certain to be among the favorites in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint. Dubai Key has plenty of zip and may be the most dangerous of the pace types. He was used hard from the rail in the same race Lane Way exits, gets a better draw today, and will be quite dangerous if allowed an easy opening quarter mile.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:08 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Defunded; 4-Country Grammer
Backups/savers: 2-Royal Ship
Forecast: We have to admit, we have no real feel for this year’s Awesome Again S.-G1, a win-and-you’re-in nine furlong main track affair for older horses. The logical top pick, Dubai World Cup winner Country Grammer is one of four entrants from the Bob Baffert barn, but the son of Tonalist was beaten nearly 20 lengths when second to Flightline in the Pacific Classic and workouts since that race have been disappointing. Quite frankly, we don’t know where he’s at right now, though we will concede that he is more than capable of winning if he feels up to the task. Royal Ship finished seven lengths behind Country Grammer in the Pacific Classic after soundly beating that rival in the San Diego H.-G2 the previous month. Express Train won the Santa Anita Handicap-G1 here last spring but awful (fourth, beaten 26 lengths) in the Pacific Classic and displayed no interest in a recent workout (see below) leading up to this race. Where does this leave us? Maybe with Defunded, whose recent form has been substandard, but at least he’s working well, and he did finish a strong second in the Hollywood Gold Cup-G1 over the local main track in late May. Perhaps it’s his turn.
Notable Workouts:
Royal Ship (Sept. 25, Santa Anita, 5f, :58.1h). Grade: B-
Was far behind Window Shopping (4f, :48.1h) when we picked him up approaching the far turn but was put to some pressure and quickly closed the gap before drawing clear in the final furlong, :11.3 and :35.4 to the wire before continuing out under some coaxing to 7/8 pole in :49.3. Unlikely to have gone as fast as official final time and looked just okay in the process. Hard to gauge.
View Workout Video
Country Grammer (Sept. 25, Santa Anita, 6f, 1:13.1h). Grade: B-
Was outside Azul Coast (same time) for B. Baffert and was slightly in front at the wire but was under urging (workmate not asked much) to finish all out with splits of :24.1, :36 flat, :47.4 and 1:13.1 on our watches (continued out to 7/8 pole under urging to be up in 1:27.3. Not the most willing of workers and the track was deepish today but we still expected more. Question mark leading into the Awesome Again Stakes.
View Workout Video
Defunded (Sept. 24, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00h). Grade: B+
Solo five furlong drill for B. Baffert under mild coaxing through the lane, final quarter in a solid :24.3 over a deep surface. Looks ready to bounce back with a major effort in the Awesome Again S.-G1.
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Express Train (Sept. 24, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.2h). Grade: C+
Under urging form the top of the lane to the wire while managing to get past his breezing workmate Red Flag (5f, 1:00.3h, could have opened up if permitted) in the closing stages with a final quarter mile split of :24.3, respectable final clocking but not visually impressive. Hard to endorse in the Awesome Again S. based on this drill.
View Workout Video
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RACE 9: Post: 4:38 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Connie Swingle; 9-Island of Love
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Connie Swingle is a perfect two-for-two over this tricky course and distance and is fresh from a career top performance when wearing down her tough-as-nails older stable mate Leggs Galore in a hot turf sprint at Del Mar. She is quick enough to lead throughout if the pace scenario dictates but is equally comfortable settling in the second flight and then blasting home. She is listed at 3-1 on the morning line and that may be a tad generous as the logical top pick. We’ll also include on our ticket Island of Love, turning back to a sprint for the first time since being imported from Italy and with the turn of foot that could be highly effective down the hill. She’s a stakes winner over the local lawn and switches to Joe Bravo, who seems certain to give her the patient ride that will bring out her best.
Notable Workouts:
Connie Swingle (Sept. 24, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00h TT). Grade: B
In blinkers, broke off a couple of lengths behind Virat (5f, 1:00.2h TT) and wound up a half-length back at the wire but was never asked for her best and did well while coming the final three furlongs in :35.3. Maintains her form for P. D’Amato.
View Workout Video
Island of Love (Sept. 25, Santa Anita, 5f, :59h TT). Grade: B+
Broke off several lengths behind Rose Dawson (5f, 1:00.1h TT) and closed the gap to finish about a head back at the wire, no real pressure, final three furlongs in a sparkling :35 flat. Might be best suited as a late-running turf sprinter and will get her chance in the Unzip Me S.
View Workout Video
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RACE 10: Post: 5:08 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference: 10-Ragtime Rose; 2-Mi Mimita; 5-Mizztify Doll
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: This looks like a stronger than par maiden turf sprint for juvenile fillies and it should take a decent prospect to win it. Ragtime Rose was visually quite impressive when breezing a furlong in a smoking 9 4/5 seconds at the OBS April sale, and while she shows no such quick drills since arriving in California for trainer Jeff Mullins the daughter of Union Rags has done everything easily like a quality filly just waiting to be turned loose. Her $525,000 purchase price tells you pretty much what her connections think of her, so at 15-1 on the morning line she represents a good price gamble. Mi Mimita was nailed right on the line by the late-charging Sallys Sassy in an abbreviated dash at Del Mar in late August, joins the strong Jonathan Wong stable, and shows three nice breezes since raced. She’s plenty quick and will take this field as far as she can. Mizztify Doll is a debuting daughter of Mizzen Mast that brought $350,000 at the same sale that Ragtime Rose was sold and she, too, has done everything in the morning for trainer Richard Mandella that has been required. We’ll be surprised if the winner isn’t one of the three listed above.
Notable Workouts:
Mizztify Doll (August 26, Del Mar (5f, 1:01h). Grade: B+
Picked her up at the half mile pole inside Kanderel (5f, 1:00.4h) and was hard held throughout while even with older stable mate, splits of :23.4 and :48.1 on our watches, quite nice for R. Mandella while able to go considerably faster if permitted. Moves like a quick sprinter type and should be very live at first asking vs. juvenile fillies sprinting on grass.
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Ragtime Rose (Sept. 25, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.3hg). Grade: B+
Daughter of Union Rags broke slowly in three-runner gate drill with Itzel (5f, 1:01.3hg) and Rose Rose Rose (4f, :49.3hg) but once in full stride displayed excellent speed despite being under wraps, splits of :24.3, :36.2 and :48.1, quite impressive. If she breaks well in her debut race she could be quite dangerous. Easy to see why she brought $525,000 at the OBS April Sale, where she previewed in a blistering 9 4/5 seconds.
View Workout Video
