“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
By Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, Workout Commentary, and True Odds Calculations (“TOC”) identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The “TOC” quantifies the findings of a personal thoroughbred analytics program that contains in its database the results of every race contested at Santa Anita since 2004. More than 75 critical factors in the fields of class, distance, surface, age, and sex have created 227 algorithms that are highly specific to the race being handicapped. The result is a probability line that reflects each contender’s true odds based on a pure 100-point takeout.
The “TOC” applies its mathematical formula only to non-maiden races and displays a maximum of four runners considered the most likely contenders to win. Also listed is the specific algorithm’s sample size plus the top-rated horse’s win percentage and return on investment (ROI). It is suggested that the player utilize the program’s findings to compare each contender’s “true odds” with the morning line and/or actual wagering odds to identify potential overlays and underlays.
Also-eligible runners are not included in any of the calculations until verified as actual starters. When possible, adjustments to the “TOC” will be updated after late scratches.
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 2-Beef Winslow; 6-Migration
Forecast: The Saturday opener boils down to two main contenders in this maiden turf miler for older horses. Beef Winslow shows rising speed figures with each outing, and with three sprints underneath him he should be ready for another forward move in his first start around two turns. From a good inside draw, the D. O’Neill-trained colt likely will be on or near the lead throughout. His pedigree and workouts (see below) suggests he’ll improve as the distances increase, so the son Honor Code has much in his favor while offering good value at 7/2 on the morning line. Migration finally made it to the races at age four in a turf sprint last month and overcome some early self-caused trouble to finish with some interest to be fifth while clearing in need of the outing. The R. Mandella barn has strong stats with the second-time starter angle (24%), so we’re expecting a significant amount of improvement with that debut run behind him. These are the two we’ll be using in rolling exotic play, with the main punch going to Beef Winslow.
Notable Workouts:
Beef Winslow (March 20, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02h TT). Grade: B+
Just galloping along early, picked it up entering the lane and finished in a rally while never really being asked, splits of :25.4, :38 flat and 1:01.4, plenty left in the tank. Should be better routing than sprinting based on this drill.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:33 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 1-Lookin for Revenge; 2-Unbroken Star
Forecast: Lookin for Revenge (TOC=7/2; ML=6-1) seems certain to be the controlling speed from his inside post in this $16,000 claiming miler for older horses and given that type of trip the T. Yakteen-trained gelding should be able to take full advantage of the situation. First or second in six of 12 starts, the son of I Want Revenge is better than his last race shows and looks quite playable at or near his morning line of 6-1. Unbroken Star (TOC=3-1; ML=9/5) was a voided claim for $20,000 two races back and then was a one-paced, non-threatening third at the 6/5 favorite in a $25,000 seller last time out, so his current condition is a bit of a mystery, but this drop this class drop following a six week vacation could perk him up. The M. Puype-trained gelding shows a healthy series of four recent workouts, and in a race without much pace he projects to draft into a pace-stalking trip and have every chance from there.
Notable Workouts:
Lookin for Revenge (March 26, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.1h). Grade: B-
Maybe a tad second best but wasn’t ever really asked much while even with Dutch Bus (same time) for T. Yakteen, splits of :23 flat and :48 flat on our watches, solid maintenance drill. Most effective on the front end going long, freshened since mid-February, seems in good enough shape.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:03 PT Grade: A-
Single: 5-Sumter
Forecast: Sumter (TOC=4/5; ML=6/5) made his sophomore debut in the Pasadena S. in mid-February and left his juvenile form far behind with a pace-pressing score that produced a vastly improved speed figure. He has trained in spectacular fashion since, so we’re expecting another forward move in this year’s renewal of the listed Singletary Stakes. Whether or not he’s the controlling speed or relegated to a stalker’s role (behind Durante), the R. Mandella-trained colt should handle this assignment and then go on to bigger and better things.
Notable Workouts:
Balnikhov (March 21, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.1h TT). Grade: B
In a three horse training track team drill with Going Global (5f, :59.3h TT) and Almanera (5f, 1:00.3h TT) and did well, sitting second early and then responding to light late coaxing to wind up second best behind the rallying ‘Global and ahead clear of the pacesetter Almanera, splits of :23.1 and :47.4 for the final half mile. Looks like a useful sort for P. D’Amato, won three of his last four starts in useful company in France on all-weather surfaces.
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Sumter (March 20, Santa Anita, 4f, :48h). Grade: A
Even but best inside Astute (same time) while going faster and farther than given, under wraps every step of the way, splits of :23 flat and :46.4 to the wire before continuing out to the seven furlong pole in :59 flat, looking exceptional. Handles dirt fine but is bred for grass and probably will be kept on the lawn for now. Top miler in the making.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:36 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference: 3-Bella Renella; 6-Circulodeganadoras
Forecast: Bella Renella (TOC=3/5; ML=8/5) seeks her third straight win but was a voided claim after her most recent score, so her current condition is suspect. If she shows up with anything close to her best race, the daughter of Clubhouse Ride will win again while facing similar low-level claiming fillies and mares. Regular pilot T. Baze stays aboard, knows her well, and should have the D. O’Neill-trained mare settled in the second flight and then have dead aim from the top of the lane to the wire. Furthermore, this extended sprint distance is perfect for her style. Circulodegandadoras (TOC=6-1; ML=5/2) isn’t as fast on speed figures as our top pick but is the likely controlling speed and will be formidable given that type of trip. First or second in 18 of 38 career starts, the always genuine and consistent daughter of Marino Marini shows the popular route-to-sprint angle in addition to a weight break with the switch to bug boy D. Herrera. If Bella Renella doesn’t fire her best shot, she’s the logical alternative.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:10 PT Grade: B+
Single: 1-Gold Phoenix
Forecast: Gold Phoenix (TOC=2-1); ML=9/5) has the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern while displaying fast, rising speed figures to go along with a lovely inside draw. The lightly-raced gelding lacks tactical speed but should enjoy an ideal mid-pack ground-saving trip and then have every chance to seal the deal when given his cue from the quarter pole home. It would be nice if he broke with his field today – something that he didn’t do in his first two local outings – to allow for a more favorable early position. At 9/5 on the morning line, he’s a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:50 PT Grade: X
Single: 1-Shaaz
Forecast: Even in victory (via disqualification), Shaaz (TOC=4/5; ML=8/5) ran below expectations when remaining unbeaten in a first-level allowance sprint in early February, crossing the wire second (behind Disco Ball) before getting promoted to the top after being floated out through the stretch. His Beyer number came up 16 points less than what he had earned in his debut, but today, in his first try around two turns from a good rail post in a race that will allow him a role as the controlling speed, the son of Uncle Mo has found ideal conditions to remain perfect. A recent solo seven furlong drill (see below) should have him plenty fit for his first start in two months, so at 8/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower, the B. Baffert-trained colt – a $1.1 million purchase in the 2020 Timonium 2-year-old in training sale – seems a logical, short-priced, rolling exotic single.
Notable Workouts:
Shaaz (March 26, Santa Anita, 7f, 1:25.2h). Grade: B+
Solo main track drill for B. Baffert, splits of :11.4, :23.3, :35.1, :47 flat, 1:12 flat and 1:25.1 out to the seven furlong pole, never really asked much, strong work for unbeaten (in two starts) son of Uncle. Should have no difficulty stretching out based on this drill.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:25 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 9-Hail Freedom; 8-Big Flame
Forecast: Hail Freedom (TOC=6/5; ML=5/2) is clearly the one to beat in this state-bred, first-level, allowance Hillside Turf sprint but he’s always preferred to run second or third (eight times) rather that win (once), so he’s not entirely trustworthy, especially since he just failed at even money against a similar field over the flat course last month. Re-equipped with blinkers after two prior strong outings wearing the hood, the D. O’Neill-trained colt should be prominent throughout in a field that doesn’t have a whole lot of early speed signed on, so from his cozy outside draw, the son of Box Score seems likely to dictate the pace flow. Simply stated, there should be no excuses today. Big Flame (TOC=8-1; ML=5-1) goes as a first-off-the-claim by S. Miyadi for $25,000 and is protected in a sign of confidence. The barn’s stats with this angle are outstanding (20% with a flat-bet profit), and with rising speed figures and a recent win over the local lawn (flat course), the son of Mr. Big certainly would appear to have plenty of room for further improvement. These are the two we’ll be using in rolling exotic play, with a slight preference on top to Hail Freedom.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:00 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 7-Lady T; 2-Family Affair; 4-Secret Fix
Forecast: Let’s prefer the fillies with experience in this maiden main track sprint that marks the debut of Karin With an I, a Curlin filly from Beholder, who seems sure to attract money based strictly on her pedigree, if nothing else. We think she might be okay down the road, but she doesn’t strike us as a sprinter and must leave from the rail, so we’ll watch her for future reference. Lady T couldn’t stay with future stakes star Ganadora in her seasonal bow in mid-February when winding up a distant second in a fast, highly-rated and productive race while six lengths clear of the rest. This looks like a significantly easier task for the first-time-Lasix, stakes placed daughter of Into Mischief, so let’s go with the J. Shirriffs-trained filly slightly on top. Family Affair failed to run to her press clippings when fifth (beaten nine lengths) in her debut, but a messed up start proved costly, so we’ll give her another chance. She gets Lasix and blinkers and seems quite likely to be the controlling speed, assuming that she breaks. Also worth tossing in, at least as a saver or a back-up, is Secret Fix, a four-year-old making just her third career start and with numbers that are competitive. The S. Ruis-trained daughter of Secret Circle likely will settle into a stalking position and then have her chance to make an impact when the pressure is turned on.
Notable Workouts:
Karin With an I (March 19, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.3hg). Grade: B
Okay gate drill for R. Mandella in company inside Chris Fix (same time), splits of :24.2, :36 flat, :48.1 and 1:00.3, mild urging only and finishing with something left. Curlin filly from Beholder is good-sized with some scope but doesn’t strike us as a win-early, sprint type. Probably will need some experience before showing her best but definitely has some ability.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:32 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 3-Woodbine Way; 9-Equilove; 1-Taming the Tigress
Forecast: The nightcap is a fairly competitive allowance optional claiming sprint for older fillies and mares. Woodbine Way (TOC=5-1; ML=7/2) is an intriguing Eastern shipper making her first start since October and seems well-spotted for a major effort for new trainer L. Powell. A quick filly who when last seen pulverized a starter’s allowance field at Belmont Park with a monster number, the daughter of Tourist has looked quite good in a series of local training track breezes that should have her plenty fit, so at 7/2 on the morning line, she’ll offer reasonably wagering value in the win pool and in rolling exotic play. Equilove (TOC=2-1; ML=4-1), a winner in a similar affair in mid-February and with a series of extra sharp workouts in the interim for P. D’Amato, is a strong contender as well and looks fairly priced at 4-1 on the morning line. She has a good stalking style and should have her sights set on Woodbine Way as the field approaches the head of the lane. Taming the Tigress (TOC=9/2; ML=5-1) is a late-running sprinter with a reasonable chance if the early pace comes up faster than par. First or second in three of four career starts over the Santa Anita turf course, the daughter of Smiling Tiger is assured a ground-saving trip from the rail, and if she can secure a clear path from the top of the lane to the wire she could have a strong impact late.
Notable Workouts:
Woodbine Way (March 16, Santa Anita, 4f, :49h TT). Grade: B+
Came through the lane in a breeze in easy half mile training track move, final quarter mile on our watches in :23.4, quite nice. Bouncy, light on her feet, looks to have plenty of speed, and should do quite well on this circuit for L. Powell.
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