“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
By Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, Workout Commentary, and True Odds Calculations (“TOC”) identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
The “TOC” quantifies the findings of a personal thoroughbred analytics program that contains in its database the results of every race contested at Santa Anita since 2004. More than 75 critical factors in the fields of class, distance, surface, age, and sex have created 227 algorithms that are highly specific to the race being handicapped. The result is a probability line that reflects each contender’s true odds based on a pure 100-point takeout.
The “TOC” applies its mathematical formula only to non-maiden races and displays a maximum of four runners considered the most likely contenders to win. Also listed is the specific algorithm’s sample size plus the top-rated horse’s win percentage and return on investment (ROI). It is suggested that the player utilize the program’s findings to compare each contender’s “true odds” with the morning line and/or actual wagering odds to identify potential overlays and underlays.
Also-eligible runners are not included in any of the calculations until verified as actual starters. When possible, adjustments to the “TOC” will be updated after late scratches.
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B+
Forecast: Youte has rapidly rising speed figures, and with another forward move in just her fourth career start the daughter of Danzing Candy should take care of business in this downhill turf sprint for first-level allowance state-bred fillies and mares. She has the proper style for the course, and with the patient ride she requires for J. Hernandez the Cliff Sise, Jr., trained 3-year-old should be along in plenty of time. At 5/2 on the morning line, she’s a win play and rolling exotic single.
RACE 2: Post: 1:32 PT Grade:
Single: 2-Busy Paynter
Forecast: Busy Paynter (TOC=3/5; ML=6/5) is listed at 6/5 on the morning line and may go lower in this five-runner affair despite the two-level raise in class for new trainer S Knapp following a $12,500 claim last month. First or second in six of nine career starts over the Santa Anita main track, the veteran mare is pretty much a need-the-lead type, and at this abbreviated sprint trip there will be no breathers, but if she breaks well she should be able to handle the heat. In a race that probably should be left alone, you can use her as a short-priced, no-value rolling exotic single or better yet just sit out the race.
RACE 3: Post: 2:06 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): 6-Newpark; 3-Cherubic Factor; 4-My Summer Dream
Forecast: In another race that probably should be handled with care, we’ll go three-deep in rolling exotic play but without anything resembling a strong opinion. Newpark (TOC=7/2; ML=9/5) projects as the controlling speed, and if he can shake loose early without being sent the Irish-bred gelding may get brave and roll all the way to the wire. We’re not sure what the addition of blinkers will accomplish but we do like the drop in class, so we’ll put him slightly on top. Cherubic Factor (TOC=3-1; ML=5/2) has finished in the money in his last three starts, has a prior win over the local lawn, and will be doing his best work late. Numbers-wise, he’s a strong fit, so he’s a major player despite his lack of tactical speed. My Summer Dream (TOC=7/2; ML=3-1), third in the same race Cherubic Factor finished second in last month, is another that will be running on late. F. Prat stays aboard, and that’s always a good thing.
RACE 4: Post: 2:36 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference: 4-Lil Light Headed; 6-Tribute to Afleet
Forecast: Here’s an inscrutable affair in which the ultimate one-paced grinder and 12-race maiden Whiskey Vision actually may win, and that’s a scary thought;. The four-old gelding has hit the board in his last pair but never produces any punch under pressure, so he’s always hard to back with confidence. Let’s go in a different direction. Lil Light Headed was beaten 27 lengths in his only start, but at least he flashed good speed for a half before packing it in, and he was facing infinitely tougher straight maiden company in a race that already has produced a next out winner. He’ll add Lasix today while stretching out as the presumed front-runner, so under these conditions the son of Will Take Charge will have every opportunity to wire the field. You can also toss in Tribute to Afleet, another class dropper and making his second start off a layoff while returning to dirt and adding blinkers. He tends to lag early and pass a few late, and if our top pick fails to see out the trip this J. Cassidy-trained gelding may be able to tag the faltering leaders late. Tread lightly here.
RACE 5: Post: 3:08 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 2-Constitutionalaffair; Border Town; 7-Sniper Kitten
Forecast: Older $40,000 claimers meet over a mile on grass in a race that has a few possibilities. Constitutionalaffair (TOC=3-1; ML=4-1) is reunited with “win rider” F. Prat and projects to draft into a ground-saving, stalking position and then have his chance to repeat his race-before-last, a clever win over this course and distance that earned a solid figure. A three-time winner over the local lawn, the M. Glatt-trained gelding was overmatched in a downhill sprint vs. stronger goes last time out but is realistically spotted today and can bounce back. Border Town (TOC=6-1; ML=7/2) hasn’t been our kind of horse – he’s finished off the board in 11 of 20 career starts, but he has numbers that fit and should greatly appreciate the first-time drop in a claimer. All three of his wins have been accomplished over the Santa Anita turf course, so with the help of fast early fractions he should have his chance to make an impact late. Sniper Kitten (TOC=7/2; ML=5/2) projects to settle in mid-pack and produce a run in a race that should have plenty of early speed signed on. The barn is just 1-for-29 this season and rider just 1-for-33, so you’d probably want more than the 5/2 morning line, but on pure form this veteran son of Kitten’s Joy is a fit and should be included somewhere on your ticket.
RACE 6: Post: 3:38 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): 6-Big Scott Daddy; 5-Quantum Quest
Forecast: Low level restricted (Nw-2) $12,500 claimers meet over the extended sprint distance of six and one-half furlongs. We’ll try to survive and advance using just two. Big Scotty Daddy (TOC=8/5; ML-9/5) has a prior win over the track (his debut, Dec. 26, 2018) and has been chasing much tougher foes while earning speed figures good enough to win at this level, so we’ll put him on top, though at 9/5 on the morning line the M. Puype-trained gelding doesn’t offer any real value. Quantum Quest (TOC=4-1; ML=5/2) is worth using, as well. Re-equipped with blinkers and dropping to his lowest level ever, the D. O’Neill-trained gelding looks like the best of the speed types and could take some catching if he can clear early.
RACE 7: Post: 4:08 PT Grade:
Single: 2-Summer Daisy
Forecast: Summer Daisy (TOC=4/5; ML=6/5) missed by a head in a similar starter optional claimer over this course and distance last time out and not much more will be needed to regain her winning form. She gets a major upgrade in riders to F. Prat, lands a good inside draw, and should draft into a pace-stalking position and then have every chance to seal the deal. However, there’s no value to be found at her morning line of 6/5. You can use her as a rolling exotic single or simply sit it out.
RACE 8: Post: 4:40 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 1-Proverb
Forecast: Proverb (TOC=8/5; ML=8/5) moves up a level after a game win for $40,000 two weeks ago, and if he can turn in two alike, the R. Baltas-trained horse should be tough right back. The pace projection appears modest, so we’re expecting to see F. Prat take advantage of his rail post and put him in the race right from the start. There is nothing inspiring about the other five entrants, so at 8/5 on the morning line the veteran son of Flatter seems logical, it not terribly appealing, as the logical short-priced favorite.
RACE 9: Post: 5:12 PT Grade: B
Single: 5-Street Ruckus
Forecast: Street Ruckus (TOC=7/5; ML=5/2) has rising numbers and in his present form should be capable of a repeat score after winning a starter’s allowance main track affair on dirt last time out. This is a tougher assignment but the switch to grass won’t be a bother and neither will this longer nine-furlong distance. Most effective as the controlling speed, the Street Boss gelding projects as the controlling speed, so if he’s allowed to take it easy during the early stages he’ll be very tough to run down late. At 5/2 on the morning line, he’s a win play and rolling exotic single.