December 31, 2022
“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 12:00 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 5-Whatmakessammyrun; 8-Hit the Road
Backups/savers: 1-Lane Way
Forecast: As this is penned, rain is expected throughout the day, and there is no certainty that this race will remain on grass. If there is a surface switch, we will pass the race. Contention runs deep in the Joe Hernandez S.-G3 over the Hillside Turf Course for older horses, many of which have been successful under these conditions in the past. You probably should go fairly deep to have confidence in surviving and advancing. We’ll identify our top three for smaller ticket players while leaning heavily on the horse-for-course theory. Whatmakessammyrun is a perfect three-for-three over this unique layout and with good racing luck and some help up front may be able to produce another winning late bid. Hit the Road has been a highly successful turf miler throughout his career and in fact has never sprinted, though his late kick should be every bit as effective in this shorter trip. He’s been away for 11 months and might just be using this race to get the rust off, bet he has a history of firing fresh, and his past class could carry him through. With Frankie aboard and at 6-1 on the morning line, he’s a must use. Lane Way, first or second in five of six starts over the Santa Anita turf course, has a similar late running style but may be compromised by his rail draw. He’s probably more likely to simply hit the board rather than win but should be included at least as a backup or a saver.
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RACE 2: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 2-Impossible Task
Backups/savers: 7-Order and Law
Forecast: 2-Impossible Task went stale during the fall and was given a breather; he returns on a class drop to the $50,000 claiming level and should benefit significantly from the time off and the easier competition in this main track mile affair. The John Sadler-trained gelding is a two-time winner over the Santa Anita main track and in a race with a projected moderate pace scenario he should be capable of returning to winning form. Order and Law is another that should greatly appreciate this softer assignment and represents the most dangerous of the closing contingent.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-England’s Rose; 10-Queen Goddess
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Hopefully, this race will remain on grass. If it is switched to the main track due to rain, we will pass. England’s Rose is winless in four starts this year but hasn’t run badly and is due for some better luck in this year’s renewal of the Robert J. Frankel S.-G3 over nine furlongs on grass. In the frame in her last three starts and a two-time winner over the local sod, the veteran daughter of English Channel will turn seven tomorrow and thus her racing days may be numbered, but her competitive spirit remains and if the race shape doesn’t do her in she could make some serious noise from the quarter pole home. Queen Goddess won the Santa Ana S.-G3 over this course and distance last spring and if ready off a seven month layoff certainly could win. She projects to be forwardly placed in a race that might offer moderate to slow early fractions. We’ll try to get by using just these two in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 4: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Wegonahaveagoodtime; 4-American Grit
Backups/Savers: none
Forecast: There’s not much to work with in this maiden $20,000 sprint for older horses. Wegonahaveagoodtime, claimed for $50,000 in late November, returns at the bottom for his new connections, hardly a sign of confidence, but if he’s reasonably healthy this sophomore gelding should be too quick for this modest group. The John Sadler barn hits at 17% with the first-off-the-claim angle, not great but decent enough, so at 3-1 on the morning line he’s the logical top pick. American Grita first timer by American Pharoah that brought $425,000 as a yearling, finally makes it to the races a day short of his five-year-old season. He’s been training with Bob Baffert’s second string so there is no video available but if he can run at all he almost has to be competitive with this bunch. The works look good, but, then again, everything works fast at Los Alamitos.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 9-Lasmuigh; 10-Sir Pistolero; 3-Valiancer
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: This race originally was scheduled for turf. If it is transferred to the main track due to rain, we’ll sit it out. Lasmuigh ran well in minor handicaps in Ireland last summer while still a maiden, hitting the board in his last pair while spotting weight to most of his rivals. His form, while not great, certainly should make him quite competitive in this moderate straight maiden turf sprint for juveniles. The Phil D’Amato-trained gelding lands Flavian Prat and has done reasonably well in the morning to indicate he’s fit enough. Sir Pistolero, a first timer by Gun Runner, showed some ability in a recent five furlong gate work sans company in 1:00 and could come up a live item in an open fray. With Frankie taking the call, he has to be used. Valiancer shows the route to sprint angle we like and actually performed quite well in his only other sprint race, his debut, in which he closed well to just miss in a photo last May. Five consecutive attempts over a mile failed to produce the desired results but at this trip the son of Tapiture should be running on strongly late.
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RACE 6: Post: 2:33 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Houndstooth; 5-Bright Leaf
Backups/savers:
Forecast: There’s not much early speed signed on in this starter’s allowance extended sprint, so the improving Houndstooth, second in a similar affair here last fall, should have his chances enhanced by the projected soft early fractions. Solid on numbers, the Steve Miyadi-trained gelding is listed at 3-1 on the morning line and offers a reasonable gamble at that price. Bright Leaf shows a prior win over the Santa Anita main track, fits on figures, and has hit the board in each of his last four starts. This seven furlong trip should complement his second flight, stalking style. We’re reasonably confident the winner will be one of these two, so both should be used in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:05 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 10-Katerini; 5-Albayaader; 7-Real Fire
Backups/savers: None
Forecast: This race originally was carded for grass. If it is switched to the main track, we’ll pass. Katerini gets a break in the weights and projects to be prominent throughout, maybe even the controlling speed, in this six furlong sprint for older maiden $50,000 claimers. Runner-up under these conditions in his last two, the Mark Glatt-trained filly always has been vulnerable close home but in a race that should have soft early splits she may be able to stick it out. Albayaader shows up in a seller for the first time and seems certain to appreciate this softer task. She’s a strong fit on speed figures and will be doing her best work late. Real Fire is another showing the dangerous maiden-to-maiden claiming angle with numbers that are good enough to pose a serious threat, and a healthy recent work tab that catches the eye. With Flavian Prat riding her back for John Sadler, the Street Boss filly is a “must use” despite her one-paced, grinding style.
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RACE 8: Post: 3:37 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Samurai Charm; 5-Anacapa
Backups/savers: 7-Lady T
Forecast: Samurai Charm won a pair of hot sprint stakes at Zia Park during the fall in fast time with big speed figures. Can she do the same on the Big Circuit? The veteran daughter of First Samurai is winless in three starts over the Santa Anita main track, so there may be some doubt, but in this year’s renewal of the Las Flores S.-G3 that resembles a conditioned allowance sprint the daughter of First Samurai, with Flavian Prat taking the mount, appears strictly the one to beat based speed figures and current form. Anacapa isn’t quite as fast on numbers as our top pick, but she’s lightly raced and improving and could pose a threat with another forward move. She’s turning back from a series of two-turn events but has won sprinting in the past so the distance switch shouldn’t be a concern. Lady T., first or second in all five starts over the local main track, looks like the most dangerous of the closers and is worth including somewhere on your ticket.
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RACE 9: Post: 4:09 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Altruist; 1-Lovesick Blues; 3-Code Duello
Backups/savers: 4-Creative Peak
Forecast: Here’s another turf sprint that, depending upon the weather, is in jeopardy of being switched to dirt. We’ll pass if it does. Altruist won his debut over this course and distance at 31-1 a year ago October but then disappeared. He returns protected in this first level allowance affair following a series of quick drills that may have him ready to pick up where he left off. The Phil D’Amato barn has strong stats with comebackers (20%) so at 6-1 on the morning line he appears as good as any. Lovesick Blues, like our top pick, is a perfect one-for-one sprinting over the local lawn, and while his recent form is below his best the Steve Miyadi-trained son of Grazen appears capable of snapping back under conditions that favor him. From the rail under Juan Hernandez, the sophomore gelding projects to be prominent throughout and have every chance from there. Code Duello seems a bit better than his 10-1 morning line gives him credit for and offers a reasonable price chance in a wide open affair. He’s another with a previous win sprinting over the Sana Anita lawn and after hitting the board in his last two starts he should be a strong pace factor once again. Creative Peak, yet another with credentials to be a threat at a nice price (12-1 morning line), projects to settle in the second flight and have dead aim from the quarter pole home. He has numbers that fit with these res and goes for a high percentage trainer-jockey combo.
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