February 18, 2023
“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 4-Old Pal
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: The known element doesn’t inspire so by default let’s go with the first-timer Old Pal, a son of Grazen that brought $160,000 as a yearling despite a modest female family which tells us he must be a very good looking individual. His workouts leading up to his debut have been good enough to expect a competitive performance first crack out of the box. Today’s extended sprint distance should work in his favor, as the Mark Glatt-trained colt, while not a quick type, has displayed the ability that can finish up well through the lane. Grass shouldn’t hurt, either, so under leading rider Juan Hernandez, the sophomore state-bred colt is listed at 5/2 on the morning line, which seems reasonable considering the field’s apparent lack of depth.
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RACE 2: Post: 12:59 PT Grade: X
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 5-American Refugee
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: American Refugee shows rising speed figures with every outing, and with another forward move today the son of American Pharoah should have little difficulty handling this starter optional claiming field. A facile four length winner of a maiden $40,000 affair at Los Alamitos two races back, the lightly raced gelding finished a solid third in a fast extended sprint in his most recent outing and today stretches out again to a distance he’s proven he can handle. With top rider Juan Hernandez staying aboard, the Bob Baffert-trained gelding is listed as the 4/5 morning line favorite and could very well go lower. He’s a logical no-value rolling exotic single in a race that we’ll otherwise leave alone.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:29 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Finally an Eddie; 1-Catalina Eddy
Backups/savers: 5-Moon Ice
Forecast: This is a much more competitive split of the first race, a six and one-half furlong turf sprint for maiden California-bred 3-year-olds. Finally an Eddie went through the ring for $385,000 at the 2022 OBS March Sale but was bought back by his breeder and is a full brother to a pair of state-bred stakes winning sprint fillies, How About Zero and Don’t Sell. If he is even remotely as quick as either of those two the Simon Callaghan-trained sophomore will be live at first asking. He appeared a bit green when breezing a furlong in a rapid :10 flat during the sale’s preview session and was well in hand and noticeably best in a team gate drill last Saturday, able to go much quicker if permitted to do so. The barn has average stats with first time starters but at 4-1 on the morning line the son of Square Eddie might be worth a small gamble. Catalina Eddy, another by Square Eddie, finished a distant second on dirt in his racing debut two weeks ago in a fast, highly rated affair in which he crossed the wire more than eight lengths clear of the third place finisher. If the short turnaround doesn’t dull him and if he can transfer that main track effort to grass, the Craig Lewis-trained colt should be major player, though at 8/5 on the morning line he’ll probably not offer much wagering value. Moon Ice has hit the board in his last three starts, all on turf, though his speed figures are well below par for this level. Most recently he missed at 3/5 and may not be one to trust, though if you feel the need you can use him on your ticket as a saver.
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RACE 4: Post: 1:59 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Big Switch
Backups/Savers: 3-Rose Maddox
Forecast: Big Switch just failed at 3/5 when missing by a half-length in a similar first level allowance middle distance affair for fillies and mares, but off her best effort the daughter of Mr. Big should be able to make amends. The John Sadler-trained Cal-bred projects to enjoy an ideal pace-stalking trip behind sprinter-stretching-out Manorelli and then have every chance to reel that one in when given her cue at the top of the lane. This will be her second start off a long layoff, so there should be no excuses. Rose Maddox, genuine, consistent, and effective on any surface, was a state-bred stakes winner up north last month in a performance that earned her a career top speed figure. She doesn’t quite have the tactical speed as the favorite (and in fact finished a distant second to ‘Switch in the Melair Stakes last year) but will grind away and be dangerous if her chief rival fails to duplicate her best form.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:29 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Harper’s Gallop; 2-Aloha Kitten
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Harper’s Gallop was a bit unlucky when second in a $25,000 claiming miler over the local lawn last month, and in a sign of confidence she is protected today in this starter allowance grass affair at a mile and one eighth. Though unproven at this trip, the Leonard Powell-trained mare shouldn’t have any issues with the extra furlong and with the switch to Frankie the daughter of Suances most likely will be on or near what projects to be a moderate pace. Aloha Kitten will be prominent throughout, as well. Runner-up in an optional claimer over the Golden Gate Fields’ all-weather surface last time out, the Craig Dollase-trained mare could become the controlling speed if her connections opt for that strategy, and as a two-time winner over the Santa Anita turf course the daughter of Kitten’s Joy is a “must use” at 7/2 on the morning line.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:02 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Wegonahavagoodtime
Backups/savers: 1-Honeymoon Suite; 11-Lemon Drop Shot
Forecast: Bottom rung maiden ($20,000) claimers meet over five and one-half furlongs in the first leg of the late Pick-4. Wegonahavagoodtime was more than four lengths clear of the rest when second at this level in late December in a race that produced a career top figure. The John Sadler-trained gelding, claimed for $50,000 out of a poor run for $50,000 in his previous race, appears to have found his friends, and at 3-1 on the morning line (and likely to go lower) the Cal-bred son of Big Bad Leroybrown seems reasonably solid. Honeymoon Suite drops to his lowest level ever after a pair of substandard performances, but the Jeff Mullins-trained gelding has some prior form that makes him dangerous. Against this modest bunch he could be capable of snapping back, though the rail post does him no favors. Lemon Drop Shot is a 12-race maiden with eight second place finishes, so he clearly has gotten accustomed to losing. He was beaten at 50 cents on the dollar in his most recent outing up north last month and his speed figures have stagnated, but feel free to toss him on a ticket or two as a backup if you feel the need.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:34 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): Fayette Fox
Backups/savers: 4-Mount Mary
Forecast: Fayette Fox exits an infinitely stronger maiden special weight turf sprint in her debut, and while she was clearly overmatched the daughter of Sharp Azteca earned a respectable speed figure despite a troubled trip. She stretches out from the rail while dropping into a high priced maiden claimer and seems sure to improve a ton with that bit of experience behind her. A strong five furlong workout (1:00h, second fastest of 19) since raced is another positive factor, so at 7/2 on the morning line the Doug O’Neill-trained filly offers a good gamble in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics. For protection, you may want to include Mount Mary, an Irish-bred filly dropping out of the same race as our top pick. The Simon Callaghan-trained sophomore flashed a bit of speed before faltering badly but should be capable of better against this group based on her form overseas and a pair of okay efforts vs. maiden special weight company last fall.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:06 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Adare Manor
Backups/Savers: 7-Teddy’s Barino
Forecast: Although she fell short of hopes and expectations last year when going winless in her final three well-spaced outings after beginning 2022 with two wins by a total of 25 lengths, Adare Manor remains highly regarded and seems likely to return to form after her most recent five month vacation. This class drop into the allowance ranks for a confidence-building victory makes sense. She began her latest workout cycle at Los Alamitos before shipping over for an impressive half mile breeze five days ago to have her right on edge. This will be her first start without blinkers and her first under leading pilot Juan Hernandez, so at this seven furlong distance the Bob Baffert-trained filly seems likely to put her best stuff on display. Teddy’s Barino was a bit exposed when a distant third in the Chillingworth Stakes-G3 behind Ce Ce last fall after winning her previous four starts. She returns after four months of rest and should be given a chance to regain her top form. The daughter of Grazen lands the cozy outside post and projects to enjoy a comfortable pace stalking trip.
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RACE 9: Post: 4:38 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): Bay Storm
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Bay Storm shortens to a sprint – arguably her best trip – and after battling bravely to the wire when second in the Megahertz Stakes-G3 over a mile two weeks ago she is wheeled back on short rest to take on an easier group in this year’s edition of the listed Wishing Well Stakes. In the frame in 11 of 12 career starts with consistently strong speed figures, the daughter of Kantharos is listed at 3-1 on the morning line and certainly will offer good value at or near that price in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics.
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