February 19, 2023
“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 9-Chief Council; 5-Six Feet; 1-Carol’s Comic
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Chief Council is listed at 12-1 on the morning line and might be better than that in this turf sprint for older straight maidens. The son of Into Mischief removes blinkers, is comfortably drawn outside, retains Edwin Maldonado, and projects to enjoy a cozy stalking trip. Two starts isn’t a career, so if he can run at all, this would be a good place to show it. His morning drills aren’t half bad, so let’s go for a tote buster. Six Feet has enough speed to be in the first flight, and this will be his first try on grass, so he could easily stick better on the sod, and with Square Eddie on the bottom that could very well happen. Carol’s Comic, runner-up in his last pair, figures in the fray once again, though as a nine race maiden he may have gotten into the habit of losing. These are the three we’ll be using in our rolling exotics but if you feel the need to spread deeper, go right ahead.
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RACE 2: Post: 12:59 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 4-Holden the Lute; 2-It’s My House
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Seven furlongs looks like an ideal trip for Holden the Lute, who shows excellent form over a middle distance but tends to come up a bit empty under pressure late as if to indicate that he might prefer an extended sprint. That theory gets tested in this five runner affair for second level allowance older horses and on pure numbers the Mark Glatt-trained son of Midnight Lute should be capable of winning. Stablemate It’s My House, a first-off-the-claim ($50,000) for Glatt, gives the barn a powerful one-two punch. Back on dirt and like ‘Lute shortening to a sprint, the son of Anthony’s Cross could find himself as the controlling speed in a race that projects to have modest early splits. With speed rider Edwin Maldonado taking the call, that’s the strategy we’re expecting to see.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:29 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Thirty Four Coupe
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Thirty Four Coupe exits a series of much tougher straight maiden events and should find this maiden $50,000 field well within his capabilities. Most effective on the front end or from a pace stalking position, the 4-year-old gelding catches a field without much speed other than possibly Derby Prospect, so the son of Run Away and Hide should have every chance to earn his diploma in his second start off a year layoff. With the switch to Frankie, from a good inside draw, and at 2-1 on the morning line, he looks reasonably solid in the win pool and as a single in the various rolling exotics.
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RACE 4: Post: 1:59 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Alice Marble
Backups/Savers: none
Forecast: Alice Marble has done most of her racing on grass but she can handle the dirt equally as well, and after missing as the favorite in her most recent two starts the daughter of Grazen should be set to regain her winning form in this year’s edition of the Spring Fever Stakes over six furlongs on the main track. In a five-runner affair, the Phil D’Amato-trained six-year-old projects to settle in behind the leaders and then kick home when called upon. At 7/5 on the morning (we’ll take it if we can get it), she is a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:29 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-She’s Got a Way; 8-Katerini; 9-Good Boo Joo
Backups/savers: 3-Aventapp
Forecast: The fifth race is a grass grab bag for starter optional claiming fillies and mares over the extended sprint turf distance of six and one-half furlongs on the flat course. Best advice is to spread as deeply as your budget allows. She’s Got a Way drops into a seller for the first time after a series of races vs. much stronger allowance company, and against this group the Peter Eurton-trained filly may have found her friends. She’s just 1-for-15 in her career and probably isn’t one to trust, but that one win was accomplished over the local lawn, and with the switch to top jockey Juan Hernandez coupled with the drop in class the daughter of Tonalist gets top billing. Katerini probably didn’t beat much when graduating vs. maiden $50,000 foes earlier in the meeting over the local lawn but she was visually pleasing in a victory that produced a career top speed figure. With another forward move today, she’ll be right there despite the class hike. Good Boo Joo was an easy winner over this course and distance last fall and then was a solid third in a similar event last month while continuing her improving pattern. She’s drawn a bit farther out than we’d prefer but if she can get over and secure a stalking trip she’ll have her chance when the pressure is turned on. Aventapp, perhaps the quickest in the field, has been away since June but has run well fresh in the past and could stick around for at least a piece of it.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:02 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Nolo Contesto
Backups/savers: 3-Papale
Forecast: Nolo Contesto hadn’t won a race in four years prior to his dismantling of a restricted (nw-2) $16,000 claiming field last month in a race that earned a much better than par speed figure, so if he can duplicate that performance for his new low profile connections the seven year old ridgeling can repeat on the raise. Noted speed rider Edwin Maldonado knows him well and likely will attempt to employ similar front running tactics in this main track miler, though there is other speed (Papale) that could be just as quick leaving the gate as he is. Drawn outside, the son of Pioneerof the Nile might then be forced to stalk and pounce, and we’re not sure if he’ll be as effective with that type of trip. In a race that might be a good one to treat with caution, we’ll prefer Nolo Contesto on top while relegating Papale to a backup role.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:34 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Rebel Posse
Backups/savers: 8-Saffa’s Day
Forecast: First-time gelding Rebel Posse drops to his lowest level ever and should have no excuses in this extended turf sprint over the flat course for $32,000 older horses. The Phil D’Amato-trained gelding has several faster-than-par speed figures for this level and projects to enjoy an ideal second flight stalking trip and then have dead aim through the lane. Saffa’s Day has found his niche as a late-running sprinter, and after winning at this level from off the pace last month on the main track the son of Carpe Diem gelding will try his luck on grass. He finished off the board in his only prior outing on turf but that was a Hillside Course affair against much tougher foes, so we won’t hold that performance against him. Let’s try to get past this race using just two, with the main push going to Rebel Passe.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:06 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Getthemoney
Backups/Savers: 2-Blessed Touch
Forecast: After failing to run to her works in her Del Mar debut last August, Getthemoney stepped forward big time the following month in her second career start when leaving a good field in the dust by more than five lengths while earning a stakes-quality speed figure. Soon after she was stopped on and turned out, but the daughter of Midnight Lute has looked the part in recent workouts that should have her fit and ready, so we suspect she’ll return as good as she left in this first-level allowance sprint for sophomore fillies. The Brian Koriner-trained filly adds Lasix, retains Mike Smith, and projects as the speed of the speed. Blessed Touch failed to handle two turns when unplaced in the Starlet Stakes-G1 at Los Alamitos in December but after a couple of months off she should be able to regain her form at this level and at this shorter distance. Her sprint record last fall was outstanding and included a runaway maiden win (with a powerful 90 Beyer speed figure) and a strong second place finish in the Desi Arnaz Stakes behind Justique. We’ll include both in our rolling exotics and then press with extra tickets keying Getthemoney on top.
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RACE 9: Post: 4:38 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 9-Danehill Song; 11-Isabel Ludlow; 3-Proof She Zips
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Danehill Song was beaten 25 lengths in a fast, highly rated main track sprint in her debut in early January, but she was reasonably well-backed that day (4-1) so we suspect that performance wasn’t a true indicator of her ability. She retains leading pilot Juan Hernandez, adds Lasix, and puts on blinkers, so we’ll give the Vladimir Cerin-trained filly another chance in a completely unclassified grass grab bag sprint for state-bred sophomores. Isabel Ludlow is bred to win early and handle turf (Grazen), so she must be considered a contender by default. Not the prettiest of movers in her morning drills but a decent looker with a bit of power, she brings with her a typically slow work tab that is typical of maidens from the Steve Miyadi stable. The presence of Johnny V. certainly is encouraging. Proof She Zips was nosed out in an open straight maiden dash over the all-weather surface up north while earning a number that makes her competitive on this circuit. She’s out of a mare by City Zip, so the Ellen Jackson-trained daughter of Idiot Proof could step forward considerably with the switch in surface. We’ll sink or swim with these three in our rolling exotics, with the main gamble at 4-1 going to Danehill Song.
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