“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
By Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, Workout Commentary, and True Odds Calculations (“TPC”) identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The “TOC” quantifies the findings of a personal thoroughbred analytics program that contains in its database the results of every race contested at Santa Anita since 2004. More than 75 critical factors in the fields of class, distance, surface, age, and sex have created 227 individual
algorithms that are highly specific to the race being handicapped. The result is a probability line that reflects each contender’s true odds based on a pure 100 point takeout.
The “TOC” applies its mathematical formula only to non-maiden races and displays a maximum of four runners considered the most likely contenders to win. Also listed is the specific algorithm’s sample size plus the top-rated horse’s win percentage and return on investment (ROI). It is suggested that the player utilize the program’s findings to compare each contender’s “true odds” with the morning line and/or actual wagering odds to identify potential overlays and underlays.
Also-eligible runners are not included in any of the calculations until verified as actual starters. When possible, adjustments to the “TOC” will be updated after late scratches.
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B+
Single: 1-Subconscious
Forecast: Subconscious (TOC=3/5; ML=8/5) was a graded stakes winner over the Santa Anita lawn during the fall meeting but then couldn’t overcome a poor draw and weakened to finish a respectable fifth in the Hollywood Derby-G1 at Del Mar in November. Freshened and sporting a solid series of workouts in the interim, the R. Mandella-trained gelding tackles considerably easier foes in this year’s renewal of the Thunder Road S.-G3. His favorable inside post position in a race that projects to be slowly run early makes him the logical controlling speed, so at 8/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower, the son of Tapit looks very much like a high-percentage rolling exotic single.
Notable Workouts:
Subconscious (January 24, Santa Anita, 7f, 1:27.3h). Grade: B
In blinkers, caught him the final three-quarters of this drill (from the five-furlong pole out to the seven furlong pole) with splits of :24.4, :37 flat, 1:01.4 and 114.4, ridden and asked in the final stages, solid work under the circumstances. Good, stamina-producing move for a grass specialist working alone. Freshened and should be plenty fit based on this drill.
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Ready Soul (January 30, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.4h TT). Grade: B
Broke off a few lengths behind Admiral Halsey (5f, 1:01.2h TT) and was ridden through the lane to be a head best at the wire, splits of :24.3, :36.3 and 1:00.3 on our watches, solid move with steady splits. Always has been kind of a grinding type, prefers the Santa Anita turf course.
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Hurricane Cloud (January 26, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02.1hg). Grade: C+
Never changed leads in main track gate drill with Gold for Kitten (same time) for J. Sadler, ridden most of the way while getting out on the turn, splits of :24.4, :36.3, :49.1 and 1:02.1, second best when eased up after five furlongs. Obviously won’t show his best stuff until tried on turf, European shipper was a useful sort last year, but we’d tend to prefer to see one first.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:02 PT Grade: X
Use (in order of preference): 2-Big Sweep; 4-Sharapova; 5-Del Mar Drama
Forecast: At least three of the five entrants in this first-level allowance optional claiming sprint for fillies and mares have credentials to win this six furlong main track sprint, so we’ll pass the race in the win pool. Big Sweep, first or second in four of five career starts over the Santa Anita main track, returns off a three month vacation with a steady series of easy drills that should have her plenty fit. With a history of firing fresh and reunited with “win rider” F. Prat, the M. Glatt-trained mare is strong in the speed figure department and has shown the versatility to win on the lead or from a stalking position. She’s 8/5 on the morning line and is the one to beat. Sharapova earned a strong speed figure when winning a restricted maiden affair here last year before being stopped on. Her work tab is a bit light, so it’s possible she’s prepping for longer, but the daughter of Outwork picks up Johnny V. and could be a better type this time around. Del Mar Drama earned a confidence-building victory last month in a starter optional claimer over this track and distance. She projects to be last of five early on, but with some help up front could be heard from late. The main push goes to Big Sweep but the other two can be included on a back-up ticket if you feel the need for insurance.
Notable Workouts:
Sharapova (January 24, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.3hg). Grade: B-
Didn’t change leads but was never really asked in gate drill outside Syzslak (same time), stalking that one early under a nice hold and then proving slightly best while strictly on her on, splits of :24.2, :37 flat, :49 flat and 1:01.3 on our watches. Seems to be coming back well, hard to say how cranked up she is at this stage of her work pattern.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:32 PT Grade: X
Single: 5-Shaaz
Forecast: Shaaz graduated at first asking in late December and did so with a stakes-quality speed figure in a race that already has proven to be productive. A $1.1 million 2-year-old in training purchase in 2020, the son of Uncle Mo is listed as the 4/5 morning line favorite in this first-level allowance event but certainly will go lower, perhaps closer to 2/5. He’s unplayable at that price, of course, but you can use him as a no-value rolling exotic single or simply pass the race.
Notable Workouts:
Shaaz (January 20, Santa Anita, 5f, :59h). Grade: B+
Was late changing leads but proved a length best In company outside Triple Tap (5f, :59.1h) for Baffert, splits of :23 flat, :34.4 and :59 flat, a bit green but lengthening out impressively in the closing stages. Much ability, son of Uncle Mo should quickly move up the class ladder in to stakes races later this winter and spring.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:02 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference: 3-Fort Bridger; 5-King Rob; 2-Awesome Rhythm
Forecast: Fort Bridger was well-meant in his debut last month but was nailed right on the money at 11-1 in a maiden $40,000 sprint after battling on the pace every step of the way. With any kind of forward move today, the son of Gio Ponti should be able earn his diploma, and a bullet training track workout since raced (4f, :48.1h, fastest of 10) is encouraging. The class drop to maiden $30,000 can’t be considered a sign of confidence but based on speed figures it’s a logical spot, so at 9/5 on the morning line, the R. Hanson-trained sophomore rates top billing. King Rob flashed ability in his debut when rallying to be second in a similar affair at Los Alamitos in early December but then raced greenly and was never a factor in the same race Fort Bridger exits. Perhaps with the addition of blinkers, the Bodemeister gelding will produce a significant forward move, so at 5-1 on the morning line he’s worth tossing in. Awesome Rhythm is a first-timer from a capable outfit with a useful series of workouts to have him plenty fit. Obviously, he won’t have to be a world beater to be competitive at this level, so he’s another worth considering in a soft affair.
Notable Workouts:
Awesome Rhythm (January 30, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.2h). Grade: B-
In blinkers, breezing inside Carmelita’s Man (not asked, same time), easy early and smooth through the lane, splits of :12.2, :24.1 and :48.2. not bad for Peterson. Sophomore gelding has bit of run though probably not a quick type, belongs in a moderate spot in his debut.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:33 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): 6-Prince Abama; 9-Gregory’s Pride; 8-Carmelita’s Man
Forecast: Here’s a spread race, a first-level allowance turf miler that attracted a competitive field of nine. Prince Abama is steadily improving on speed figures and has finished first or second in all four starts since being imported from Ireland. He’s a one-paced grinding type and this one mile distance might be a tad sharp for his style, but with the switch to F. Prat the P. D’Amato-trained gelding should fire his best shot. Gregory’s Pride is drawn farther out than we’d prefer (he’s outside of nine) and he’s also winless in four starts over the local lawn, but as the “other” D’Amato he’ll have a good look if he can get over and secure a decent stalking position in the opening furlong. A third place performance two runs back over this course and distance puts him squarely in the hunt. Carmelita’s Man lacks tactical speed but is a three-time winner over the Santa Anita turf course and is a strong fit based on his best numbers. He was race-shape aided in a recent state-bred win at this condition during the fall meeting before being stopped on, but recent workouts should have him plenty fit. If a better-than-average pace materializes, he should make his presence felt late. We’ll try to survive and advance using just these three in our rolling exotics, but you may feel the need to go a bit deeper.
Notable Workouts:
Carmelita’s Man (January 30, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.2h). Grade: B-
Never really asked much while even with Awesome Rhythm (same time, splits of :12.2, :24.1 and :48.2, plenty left late. Freshened since the fall and seems to be coming back as well as he left.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:06 PT Grade: X
Single: 2-Ce Ce
Forecast: Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint-G1 winner Ce Ce returns in this year’s renewal of the Santa Monica S.-G2 and the daughter of Elusive Quality, with recent workouts that should have her plenty fit, projects to outclass her four rivals at a very short price. A five-time winner over the Santa Anita main track and with eight victories from 16 career starts, the M. McCarthy-trained mare has the perfect stalking style for this seven furlong distance and should be along in plenty of time as a very short-priced rolling exotic single.
Notable Workouts:
Ce Ce (January 30, Santa Anita, 4f, :47h). Grade: B
In company outside Law Professor (same time) for M. McCarthy, ridden through the lane while slightly second best, final three furlongs in :11.2 and :34.4. to record second fastest half mile drill of 87 for the morning. Looked fine, not great, but has never really been much of a worker. Plenty fit and will be odds-on in the seasonal debut.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:35 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 6-Count of Amazonia; 5-Coulthard; 8-Mucho del Oro
Forecast: Count of Amazonia and Coulthard, two-three finishers in a similar downhill slalom event last month, should get most of the play in this field of older turf sprinters, though in a 10-runner affair there are others to consider as well. Clearly most effective when held up early and allowed to blast home, Count of Amazonia hit the front but got tagged late by subsequent stakes winner Barraza last time out and a similar effort today – perhaps with a bit more patient ride – should make tough to beat. Coulthard was sent from the rail and cut out rapid splits, led the way crossing the dirt strip but weakened under pressure close home to be beaten almost two lengths. He’s another that might prefer waiting tactics from a more favorable five-hole post. Mucho Del Oro earned a solid number when winning over the flat course here from a softer allowance field in good style. He’s won half of his 10 career starts, three of which have been accomplished over the local lawn, so while he’s tackling tougher today the V. Cerin-trained gelding is a “must use” at 6-1 on the morning line.
Notable Workouts:
Coulthard (January 30, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.1h TT). Grade: B
In blinkers, drifted well off the rail entering the lane while staying stride-for-stride inside Perfectionistic (same time) for P. D’Amato, final quarter mile in :24.2, a tad the best at the wire after going off slowly. Maintains his form, seeking another turf sprint for conditioned allowance company.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:10 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 2-Express Train; 6-Law Professor
Forecast: Express Train won the 2021 San Pasqual S.-G2 before finishing second in the Santa Anita Handicap-G1 and looks to be in similar form this year following a game but all-out score in the San Antonio S.-G2 in late December. At this nine furlong trip, the son of Union Rags should be able to grind out another victory in a race that projects to have enough pace to compliment his second flight, stalking style. Law Professor is lightly-raced with rising speed figures but will need to produce another forward move to extend his winning streak to three. The Constitution gelding has good tactical speed and projects to enjoy an ideal trip outside in a stalking position just off American Theorem and/or Eight Rings. We’ll see what he can do from there.
Notable Workouts:
Express Train (January 29, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.1h). Grade: B
Ridden late to be a neck best outside Midcourt (5f, 1:00.2h) for J. Shirreffs, splits of :23.1 and :47.2 for the final half mile, solid work. Maintains his form, should be the one to beat in the San Pasqual S.
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Law Professor (January 30, Santa Anita, 4f, :47h). Grade: B+
Sharp half mile main track drill while a tad the best over Ce Ce (same time), final three furlongs in :11.2 and :34.4, mildly coaxed in the final furlong. Continues to improve with experience, gets tested for class in the San Pasqual S.-G2.
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RACE 9: Post: 4:35 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 11-Fly to Mars; 3-Hail Freedom; 1-Like the Wind
Forecast: This extended sprint for first-level allowance Cal-bred older horses has a number of possibilities. We’ll go three-deep and hope that’s enough. Fly to Mars has lost a step or two at age eight but this turn back to a sprint could help a lot. First or second in eight of 16 career starts at various distances over the Santa Anita lawn, the son of Ministers Wild Cat should be able to secure a mid-pack early position and then have dead aim and every chance from the top of the lane to the wire. Hail Freedom has found his niche as a turf sprinter and graduated last time out with a pace-forcing trip that produced an okay number. Better will be needed today, but F. Prat stays aboard and should have the D. O’Neill-trained colt within striking range throughout. Like the Wind won at first asking sprinting on grass last year but then disappeared. He’s a first time gelding with a modest series of drills and must overcome the rail post but returns protected so we’ll assume he’s doing well. At 6-1 on the morning line, he’s worth using on the ticket.
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