“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
By Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, Workout Commentary, and True Odds Calculations (“TPC”) identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The “TOC” quantifies the findings of a personal thoroughbred analytics program that contains in its database the results of every race contested at Santa Anita since 2004. More than 75 critical factors in the fields of class, distance, surface, age, and sex have created 227 individual
algorithms that are highly specific to the race being handicapped. The result is a probability line that reflects each contender’s true odds based on a pure 100 point takeout.
The “TOC” applies its mathematical formula only to non-maiden races and displays a maximum of four runners considered the most likely contenders to win. Also listed is the specific algorithm’s sample size plus the top-rated horse’s win percentage and return on investment (ROI). It is suggested that the player utilize the program’s findings to compare each contender’s “true odds” with the morning line and/or actual wagering odds to identify potential overlays and underlays.
Also-eligible runners are not included in any of the calculations until verified as actual starters. When possible, adjustments to the “TOC” will be updated after late scratches.
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 5-Excelerina; 2-Sunny Morning
Forecast: 5-Excelerina makes her U.S. debut in this nine furlong maiden event on grass for fillies and mares and comes from a stable that has superior stats with these Euro-imports. Her Timeform numbers are just okay, but her local workouts indicate she could improve considerably on this circuit. The P. D’Amato-trained Irish-bred lands F. Prat and is listed as the 8/5 morning line favorite, deservedly so. Sunny Morning has had a couple of local runs since arriving from France and displayed improvement when a willing second over a mile last month. The P. Gallagher-trained filly has every right to step forward again and should appreciate today’s extra furlong. We’ll have tickets including both in our rolling exotics and then press with Excelerina on top.
Notable Workouts:
Excelerina (January 17, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.4h TT). Grade: B
Breezing through the lane while finishing with plenty left in sharp training track drill for P. D’Amato while leading the way to the wire in team drill with Rhea Moon and Picota (all same time), final quarter mile in :23.4. Irish invader looks to be considerably better than her moderate European form would indicate, should be a live item vs. older maiden fillies and mares on this circuit.
View Workout Video
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RACE 2: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: C
Use (in order of preference): 4-Unsolved Mystery; 5-Muy Chistosa; 3-American Lily
Forecast: This is a pass race for us, as the high-priced maiden claiming sprint for sophomore fillies attracted just six starters, three of which have credentials to win. Unsolved Mystery finished third in a stronger-than-par maiden $75,000 affair last month, so this “raise” in class may not too much for her to handle. She has enough early speed to be on or near the lead throughout and could keep going in a race with suspect closers. Muy Chistosa shows up in a seller for the first time and sports the route-to-sprint angle, so the J. Mullins-trained filly is a a major player based alone on those two angles. Two races back she finished a respectable fourth behind Awake At Midnight, Adare Manor and Under the Stars, three Stakes runners, and there’s nothing even remotely as good in this much easier spot. American Lily is a first-timer from San Luis Rey Downs with a steady series of workouts, including a couple that catch the eye. She’s a homebred and realistically spotted while attracting F. Prat, so in an open affair she has to be included on your ticket.
Notable Workouts:
Kjos Kid (January 29, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02.1h). Grade: C+
Was ridden through the lane but didn’t finish with a lot of energy, final three furlongs in :39 flat on our watches. Was scratched when she flipped in the paddock in a maiden $75,000 claimer last month.
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Lovely Lola (January 15, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.1hg). Grade: C
Was ridden most of the way outside Lookin at Sweetie (4f, :48hg) and was a length back when pulled up after a half, splits of :24.3, :36.2 and :48.4 on our watches, slower than given and not impressive. Modest maiden claimer at this stage, it would appear.
View Workout Video
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RACE 3: Post: 1:34 PT Grade: X
Use (in order of preference): 3-Adare Manor
Forecast: Adare Manor (TOC=Evens; ML=6/5) was given a couple of sprint races for educational purposes before stretching out to a distance that seemed certain to bring out her best, and the daughter of Uncle Mo stepped forward as expected to graduate by 12 easy lengths while improving her Beyer speed figure by 22 points. She moves up into graded stakes company and projects to score right back, even though stable mate Eda is a Grade-1 winner and the more experienced of the two with six previous outings. They worked together recently (see below), with ‘Manor clearly the better and stronger, so at 6/5 on the morning line we’ll use her as a rolling exotic single in a race that otherwise doesn’t offer much wagering value.
Notable Workouts:
Adare Manor (January 30, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.2h). Grade: B+
Breezing inside Eda (same time) for Baffert, never asked at any stage while a long neck in front at the wire, splits of :23.4, :36.2 and 101.2, a ton left through the lane. Gets better each time we see her, graded stakes potential, for sure. Workmate went well enough without being asked as well but was clearly second best.
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Eda (January 30, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.2h). Grade: B
See Adare Manor, above.
View Workout Video
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RACE 4: Post: 2:04 PT Grade: B+
Single: 8-Dutch Box
Forecast: Dutch Box tipped his hand when a good third at this bottom-rung maiden claiming level last month and a similar performance from his cozy outside post position should be good enough to handle this modest assignment. In a race that projects to have very soft early fractions, the B. Heap-trained gelding projects to be on or near the lead throughout without having to spend much energy. At 5/2 on the morning line (and we suspect will go lower), he’s a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:35 PT Grade: C
Use (in order of preference): 4-Jack Sixpack; 6-Erebus; 3-Vanisky
Forecast: Four of the seven starters in this state-bred maiden turf miler for 3-year-olds exit the same race, with Erubus, who was 45-1 in that event, finishing second as the controlling speed in a vastly improved effort. Similar tactics likely will be employed today, though Jack Sixpack, who is drawn inside of him, may have his sights set on the lead as well and could get brave if allowed to make the running. Vanisky displayed some late interest in that Jan. 15 event when a too-little, too late fourth and probably will be the most dangerous of the late runners. Any of the three mentioned above could win – or not – so best advice is to spread the race and tread lightly.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:06 PT Grade: B+
Single: 5-Quick Buck
Forecast: Quick Buck doesn’t show any workout times that jump off the page, but the debuting gelding looked decent in a recent gate drill that points him out in this below standard maiden special weight sprint for California-bred 3-year-olds. In a race in which the known element doesn’t impress, let’s take a stand on this newcomer from the M. Glatt stable, which shows excellent stats with the first-time starter angle. With F. Prat taking the call and at 5/2 on the morning line, he’s a win play and rolling exotic single.
Notable Workouts:
Syzlak (January 24, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.4hg). Grade: B-
Slow early without being asked much and then finished okay while second best with Sharapova (same time, never asked, clearly best), splits of :25.1, :37 flat, :48.4 and 1:01.4, fair to moderate for P. Eurton. Decent mover, has bit of run, probably maiden claiming/Cal-bred material.
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Quick Buck (January 30, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.2hg). Grade: B
In blinkers, breezing along every step of the way in team gate drill inside Five Circle (5f, 1:00.3hg) for M. Glatt, splits of :24.2, :36.1, :48.2 and 1:01 flat on our watches, slower than given but easy as pie. Son of Mohaymen is eligible to surface in a moderate Cal-bred spot and should be live at first asking.
View Workout Video
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RACE 7: Post: 3:39 PT Grade: B+
Single: 1-Taming the Tigress
Forecast: Taming the Tigress (TOC=3/5; ML=6/5) was given a bit too much to do when a closing but non-threatening second in a similar event over the local lawn last month. She gets an extra half-furlong to work with today and projects to enjoy a second flight, ground-saving trip from the rail. With F. Prat staying aboard, we’ll make the daughter of Smiling Tiger a logical top pick and rolling exotic single in this entry-level allowance grass sprint for state-bred fillies and mares.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:12 PT Grade: X
Use (in order of preference): 1-Messier; 2-Sir London
Forecast: Five have been entered in this year’s edition of the Robert B. Lewis S.-G3 but the two main players will get the bulk of the player. Messier (TOC=7/5; ML=6/5) continues to shine in his a.m. drills, making it all the more difficult to explain his failure at 50 cents on the dollar in the Los Alamitos Futurity-G2 in December. The son of Empire Maker enjoyed a perfect pace-pressing trip through comfortable fractions but simply couldn’t find extra when put to pressure in the closing stages. Today, he removes blinkers and switches to Johnny V., and from the rail we’re expecting the B. Baffert-trained colt to enjoy every chance for redemption. Another positive factor is that his best race – a more than six length maiden win while under wraps – was accomplished over the Santa Anita main track. Sir London, (TOC=Evens; ML=9/5) the preferred pick according to the analytics, crushed maidens by 10 lengths in his first start around two turns at Los Alamitos last time out and has done extremely well since in his a.m. trials. The developing son of Malibu Moon can give the favorite a run for his money if his improving pattern continues. We’ll prefer Messier on top but include both in our rolling exotics in a race that we’ll otherwise sit out.
Notable Workouts:
Messier (January 30, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.2h). Grade: A-
Powerful move outside Flying Drummer (5f, :59.3h), breaking off slightly behind and then finishing about a length in front at the wire, never really asked, quite impressive. Missed at 50 cents on the dollar in the Los Alamitos Futurity-G2 in December without any excuse but will have a chance to make amends in the Robert B. Lewis S.-G3. Remains very well regarded but needs to show it in the afternoon.
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Sir London (January 30, Santa Anita, 4f, :47.2h). Grade: B+
Blinkers, shadow roll, was late changing leads but was coasting through the lane, final three furlongs in :35.4. Crushed maidens at Los Alamitos and will get tested for the class in the Robert B. Lewis S.-G3. Acts like he’ll run all day, bright prospect.
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Wharton (January 30, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.3h). Grade: B
Inside Triple Tap (same time) for B. Baffert and was asked pretty good through the lane and then out to the seven furlong pole to be even but second best with breezing workmate, splits of :24 flat, :36 flat, 1:00.3 (at the wire) and then out in 1:13.4 for a full six furlongs. Was hoping for a bit better after an easy debut maiden win last month.
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RACE 9: Post: 4:45 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 7-Principe Carlo; 4-I’m Corfu
Forecast: Principe Carlo (TOC=Evens; ML=9/5) exits a couple of tougher state-bred stakes races, winning the Carry Grant S. at Del Mar and then finishing fourth in the Cal Cup Sprint in a hot affair won by Brickyard Road. He faces a much easier task today, switches to E. Maldonado, and has run well for this rider in the past. First or second in nine of 11 career outings over the Santa Anita main track, the son of Coil is the morning line favorite at 9/5 in this starter’s allowance $25,000 event and logically so. Midwest invader I’m Corfu (TOC=8-1; ML=6-1) is worth using on a back-up ticket or two. Solid on speed figures, this eight-time winner is plenty quick, and if he can shake loose early, he could prove troublesome late.
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