“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 2-Daniel’s Magic; 6-Bochombo
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Daniel’s Magic is a genuine and consistent turf sprinter with a prior win over this course and distance and seems likely to fire another big shot in this restricted (nw-3) starter’s allowance dash. The Eoin Harty-trained colt prefers to settle and make a late bid and with the switch to Juan Hernandez the son of Magician should be capable of producing the last run. We like him on top but will also include Bochombo, a recent $40,000 claim by Ron Ellis and protected today in a sign of confidence. He’s a strong fit on numbers, has winning form over local lawn, and can be tough on the front end or from a stalking position.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 5-Todo Fino
Backups/savers: 2-Canadian Pride
Forecast: Todo Fino was a late scratch out of the San Anita Sprint Championship two weeks ago but since has worked a bullet half mile in :46 flat so we’ll assume he’s okay. A sharp winner of his U.S. debut at Del Mar last month, the son of Verrazano is fast on figures and is a likely repeat winner in this second level allowance main track sprint. Canadian Pride is worth including on your ticket as a backup or a saver. A three time winner over the Santa Anita main track and with back numbers that are better than par for this level, the Peter Eurton-trained gelding has been away since April but shows recent workouts that should have him plenty fit to fire a big shot off the bench.
Notable Workouts:
Todo Fino (Oct. 5, Santa Anita, 4f, :46h). Grade: A-
Looked like a poor man’s Flightline in this sizzling work while breezing every step of the way, just coasting to the wire, splits of :22 flat and :46.1 on our watches. Has all of his speed and then some.
View Workout Video
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RACE 3: Post: 2:04 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Leggs Galore
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Leggs Galore is listed as the 4/5 morning line favorite in this year’s edition of the California Distaff Handicap, and while she’s a likely winner she won’t be offering any real wagering value at that short price. Burdened with 125 lbs. while spotting her rivals from three to eight pounds, the Phil D’Amato-trained mare nonetheless should have an easy time of it as the controlling speed over a course she clearly prefers (two-for-two). Solid in the numbers department and with regular pilot Ricky Gonzalez aboard, the daughter of Bayern can be used as a short-priced rolling exotic single in a race that otherwise should be left alone.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:35 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Quattroelle; 5-Fearless Girl
Backups/Savers: none
Forecast: We’ll try to survive and advance using just two in this nine furlong turf affair for second level allowance fillies and mares. Quattroelle is a two-time winner over the Santa Anita turf course but might be more comfortable at a flat mile. She likes to settle and produce a late run and is certain to get the patient ride she prefers from Hector Berrios. Freshened since August but with a steady, healthy recent series of works, the Irish-bred filly should have every chance to regain her winning form. Fearless Girl, third in the same race our top pick just finished second in, will enjoy today’s extra furlong and projects to inherit an ideal second flight journey. She has rising speed figures for top trainer Phil D’Amato and won’t have to improve much to win.
Notable Workouts:
Kirstenbosch (Oct. 8, Santa Anita, 5f, :58.1h). Grade: B
In company outside Crew Dragon (same time) for J. Sadler and was a tad the best, final three furlongs in :36.3 while being ridden aggressively through the lane to be a head in front at the wire. Okay move but certainly not as good as the final time might indicate.
View Workout Video
Fearless Girl (Oct. 9, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.1h TT). Grade: B+
A half-length best at the wire inside Flint Stroll (same time) for P. D’Amato, never really asked much while workmate was being ridden through the lane, solid drill, final three furlongs in q sharp :35.3. Maintains her edge.
View Workout Video
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RACE 5: Post: 3:10 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-King Zong; 1-Start Them Up
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: King Zong, second in two of his three career starts, earned a career top speed figure when runner-up in a softer spot at Los Alamitos last month. If he repeats that race on the big track, the Steve Miyadi-trained juvenile should be able to graduate in this modest maiden $50,000 affair. Start Them Up is slower on numbers than our top pick but has plenty of room to improve and should step forward in just his third lifetime start. His lack of early speed is problematic from his rail post, but he should be able to at least outrun his morning line of 8-1. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics, but if you feel the need to spread deeper, go right ahead.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:40 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-U R Pressed
Backups/savers: 6-Conch Daddy
Forecast: U R Pressed finished a solid third in straight maiden company at Golden Gate Fields in his debut last month and shows up today in a maiden $50,000 dash for older runners that should be well within his capabilities. The Doug O’Neill-trained gelding was off slowly before rallying wide in a performance that was better than the line gives him credit for, so if he can duplicate that race today he will be hard to beat. The concern, of course, is that this $70,000 2-year-old in training purchase in June of last year isn’t being protected; perhaps his connections don’t view him as a sound, long-term investment. Conch Daddy adds blinkers in his second start for new connections after a $30,000 claim at Los Alamitos in July. He’s a fit on speed figures and may be more dangerous than his 6-1 morning line indicates. Toss him in somewhere in a race that should be handled with care.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:10 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Trojan Way
Backups/savers: 3-Charlotte Harbor; 7-Kitten Calls
Forecast: Trojan Way was a recent $20,000 claim by Paul Aguirre and is well spotted for a quick return on investment in this main track miler that came up unusually weak for a bottom-rung affair. Third at this level at Del Mar while perhaps a race away from being dead fit, the daughter of Kantharos will have no such excuse today and can be expected to employ gate-to-wire tactics with the switch to excellent speed rider Edwin Maldonado. We’ll also include on our ticket Charlotte Harbor, stretching out in her second start since being transferred to the clever Vladimir Cerin stable. Slower on numbers than our top pick but picking up Juan Hernandez, the daughter of Munnings should improve enough to be a danger. Kitten Calls, the 2-1 morning line favorite, has managed to hit the board just once in seven career starts and certainly isn’t one to trust, but with numbers that fit she may have found her friends at this level.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:40 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Novella; 3-Feathers
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Here’s a messy turf claimer for fillies and mares that is borderline inscrutable. Spread as deeply as your budget allows. Novella returned off a long layoff to finish a reasonable runner-up last time out but was a voided claim and sent back to trainer Mark Glatt’s barn. Away for two months, she returns at the same level and certainly could win if feeling good. First or second in 12 of 22 career starts, she’s always been a dependable type with a good stalking style that usually keeps her free of trouble. Feathers won a similar $25,000 turf claimer at Del Mar last time out, and if she can turn in two alike – never her strong suit – the Peter Miller trained filly could be dangerous right back. She is best when held up early and produced late and seems certain to get that type of ride is a race that should have sufficient early pace to compliment her style.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:10 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-La Paloma Blanca; 3-Modera
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: La Paloma Blanca wasn’t quite competitive in straight maiden company in her first two career outings so this drop into the maiden $40,000 level is warranted. The Peter Miller-trained daughter of Kitten’s Joy switches to dirt, sports a nice, healthy work tab at San Luis Rey Downs, and should be a nice fit in this modest lineup of juvenile fillies. Modera a distant third after a slow start in her debut in a better-than-par maiden claimer, certainly has a right to improve with that bit of experience behind her. A bullet workout (:46 3/5) at San Luis Rey Downs since raced is encouraging, so we’ll include her as well.
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RACE 10: Post: 5:40 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 9-School Dance; 1-In Your Face
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: School Dance arrives from Florida seeking some of that valuable ship-and-win money and seems sure to produce a significant forward move for new trainer Phil D’Amato. A maiden special weight winner with a career top number when last seen at Gulfstream Park in May, the daughter of Animal Kingdom has hit the board in five of seven career starts and projects to settle in mid-pack and then have every chance from the quarter pole to the wire. There’s some value here at 5-1 on the morning line. In Your Face looked fairly decent beating maiden $50,000 foes at Del Mar when graduating in her 10th career start with a career top number than makes her a major player right back. She is guaranteed a ground-saving trip from her rail draw, retains regular pilot Drayden Van Dyke, and with some help up front should be heard from late.
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