“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 3-Pacific States; 4-Take Charge Curly
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Pacific States surfaces in a claimer for the first time and should be quick enough to establish the pace and keep on going. However, at 9/5 on the morning line and liable to go lower, he offers little in the way of value. Take Charge Curly closed a gap after a slow start in his debut at Los Alamitos and certainly has room for improvement. He’s probably not all that much (he was 27-1 in his first start) but in a soft field he’s worth at least some consideration.
Notable Workouts:
Pacific States (Oct. 10, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.3h TT). Grade B-
Decent training track drill outside Bluegrass Lute (same time) while finishing head-and-head with a final quarter mile in a smart :23.3. In good shape and will be double tough with a class drop.
View Workout Video
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RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 1-Atomic Drop; 4-Stone’s River
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Atomic Drop is unproven around two turns but from the rail he’s likely to inherit the role as the controlling speed, and if he’s ever going to win over a distance of ground it will be under circumstances similar to this. He has a prior win over the local main track and is exiting a series of quick abbreviated sprints, so the front end should be his for the taking. Stone’s River projects to settle into a stalking position, and if ‘Drop can’t see out the trip he should be in a perfect position to stalk and go from the quarter pole home.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:04 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Tangledupingrey
Backups/savers: 4-Clouseau
Forecast: Tangledupingrey turns back to a sprint, lands the cozy outside post, and projects to be on or near the lead from start to finish. He’s 8/5 on the morning line and may go lower. Clouseau is a first timer bred for speed (Distorted Humor) and shows a work tab that indicates he has at least some ability. A little will go a long way in this six runner grass sprint for state-bred juveniles, so we’ll toss him in as a backup.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:35 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Smile for Glory; 1-American Cat
Backups/Savers: none
Forecast: We’re going to try to beat the 8/5 morning line favorite (Lemon Sushi) going two-deep in our rolling exotics. Smile for Glory displayed decent speed before weakening late in a turf dash for California-bred runners earlier this month in a race he had a right to need. The barn has super stats with the second-time starter angle, so from a comfortable outside post the son of Smiling Tiger could easily step forward in a big way. American Cat may be better than shown after finishing a troubled fourth in a similar dash at Del Mar in August. With just two starts, the American Freedom sophomore colt has plenty of room to improve, so if he leaves cleanly from the rail the Dean Pederson-trained gelding should be a solid contender.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:05 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 9-Jibber Jabber; 4-Octane; 3-Lady Noguez
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: We’re not crazy about the extreme outside draw that Jibber Jabber must deal with in this starter’s allowance turf miler but the Irish-bred filly may be capable of winning again with a repeat of her most recent outing, a nice score over $40,000 sellers at Del Mar last month. Hopefully, she can fold over, get some cover, save some ground, and then kick home from the quarter pole to the wire. Octane was a race-shape aided third in the same race ‘Jabber exits, and while she’s never been big on winning (2-for-17) the N. Drysdale-trained Brazilian-bred mare has numbers that are rising and may be able to produce another forward move. Lady Noguez, away since last December, returns for clever trainer Vladimir Cerin. It may be significant that Umberto Rispoli jumps off Jibber Jabber to ride her, and both of her career victories (from 24 starts) were accomplished over the local turf course. Tread lightly here.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:35 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Starship Defiant; 4-A Broken Breeze
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Starship Defiant is a course specialist (three wins and two seconds in nine outings) and makes her first start for a barn that has strong stats with the first-off-the-claim angle. This drop from $16,000 to $10,000 normally isn’t a good sign, but if this daughter of Empire Way has at least one good one left she should be hard to handle. A Broken Breeze continues her descent on the class ladder and may finally have found her friends. She will be doing her best work late. These are the two we’ll be using in rolling exotic play in a race that might be best left alone.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:05 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): Time to Party; 8-Wellswort; 10-Fllint Stroll
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Time to Party shows up in a claimer for the first time and the class drop isn’t suspicious as this is where he belongs. The Peter Miller-trained gelding has been facing much better company than today’s group and in his first try around two turns the son of Kantharos should be comfortably placed in a pace pressing or stalking position, or maybe even as the controlling speed if they let him have it. Wellswort, away since January, could return a better type for the Phil D’Amato barn and recent works indicate he is fit and ready. A maiden claiming win over this course and distance when last seen, the Irish-bred gelding should draft into a stalking position and then have every chance when the pressure is turned on. D’Amato’s other entrant, Flint Stroll, represents the most dangerous of the closing types and with a good pace up front to compliment his style the son of Flintshire could make some serious noise late.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:35 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Lady Maryann 5-She’s Bulletproof
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Lady Maryann appears to have found a proper spot to regain her winning form, so we’ll put her on top, her low percentage connections notwithstanding. She returns to the main track and gets an extra furlong to work with, so we’re expecting the daughter of Curlin to Mischief to fire her best shot. Her front-running maiden win over this main track in June would, if repeated, handle this assignment, so let’s hope she runs back to it. She’s Bulletproof lacks early speed but with some help up front could cause some damage in the final furlong. Her numbers are nothing special and she’s burned money as the favorite in her last pair, but we’ll toss her in for protection as a backup.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:07 PT Grade:
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-The Chosen Vron; 7-Hail Freedom
Backups/savers: 7-Hail Freedom
Forecast: The Chosen Vron is bred for grass and his one prior outing on the sod produced an excellent third place finish (beaten a head) in a state-bred stakes at Del Mar in August. Furthermore, while he has shown he can handle any distance, we suspect he’s most effective sprinting, so this downhill Hillside Turf Course should bring out his best. Successful against open company (he’s beaten Defunded and Laurel River), the son of Vronsky had a nice easy breeze over the training track last week to indicate he is primed and ready for a major effort. As a backup, we’ll include the tough and genuine Hail Freedom on our ticket. A winner of his last four starts, most recently with a career top speed figure, the Doug O’Neill-trained son of Box Score has won over this course in the past and will be tough to catch if not pressured early.
Notable Workouts:
The Chosen Vron (Oct. 8, Santa Anita, 4f, :49.1h TT). Grade: B
Just breezing in solo training track drill, never asked, and finishing with plenty left. Looks sound and happy and should fire a big shot in the California Flag Handicap.
View Workout Video
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