“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
By Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, Workout Commentary, and True Odds Calculations (“TOC”) identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The “TOC” quantifies the findings of a personal thoroughbred analytics program that contains in its database the results of every race contested at Santa Anita since 2004. More than 75 critical factors in the fields of class, distance, surface, age, and sex have created 227 algorithms that are highly specific to the race being handicapped. The result is a probability line that reflects each contender’s true odds based on a pure 100-point takeout.
The “TOC” applies its mathematical formula only to non-maiden races and displays a maximum of four runners considered the most likely contenders to win. Also listed is the specific algorithm’s sample size plus the top-rated horse’s win percentage and return on investment (ROI). It is suggested that the player utilize the program’s findings to compare each contender’s “true odds” with the morning line and/or actual wagering odds to identify potential overlays and underlays.
Also-eligible runners are not included in any of the calculations until verified as actual starters. When possible, adjustments to the “TOC” will be updated after late scratches.
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B+
Single: 4-Grandiosely
Forecast: Most of the entrants in this maiden $50,000 grass sprint for fillies and mares have been thoroughly exposed, but not the second-time starter Grandiosely, who ran much better than the line will show when fourth in a similar affair in her debut last month. Off slowly and racing somewhat greenly to the head of the lane, the daughter of City Zip took hold wide and finished with good energy before galloping out in good style while appearing to want more ground. She gets an extra half-furlong to work with today, shows a bullet :58 3/5 drill at Los Alamitos since raced, retains R. Gonzalez, and goes for stable that hits with an amazing 30 percent with second-time starters. At 3-1 on the morning line, she’s a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: X
Use (in order of preference): 5-Cajun Treasure; 4-Mashhad Flats
Forecast: Cajun Treasure (TOC=Evens; ML=5/2) and Mashhad Flats (TOC=2-1; ML=3-1) finished in a dead-heat when they squared off over this track and distance last month and go at each other again on the one-level raise in this mile main track affair for $12,500 that really offers nothing else to seriously consider. The former adds blinkers off that race – not sure why – while the latter switches to the M. Glatt barn via a claim while picking up seven pounds. Due to the weight shift, ‘Treasure should rate top billing, but we’ll include both in rolling exotic play in a race that we’ll otherwise pass.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:01 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 2-Oubabe; 5-Talklessworkmore
Forecast: Oubabe has hit the board in five of six career starts and has been second in his last three, so he’s due. Maybe in his first try around two turns, this California-bred sophomore will be able to break through with a maiden win, though we can’t say his pedigree guarantees he’ll move up at this nine-furlong trip. Drawn nicely inside and with top rider J. Hernandez staying aboard, the J. Sadler-trained colt could find himself as the controlling speed and never look back. Talklessworkmore should be part of the pace throughout after finishing a game second despite being three-wide throughout in a mile affair at this level last month. He’s had six chances and his numbers have stagnated, but in a modest affair he’s probably the one Oubabe must worry about the most. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:36 PT Grade: X
Use (in order of preference: 3-Flat Out Joy; 2-Jamminjl; 1-Marie
Forecast: Here’s another race – a five-runner $12,500 claiming sprint for fillies and mares – that is best left alone. Flat Out Joy seeks her third straight win but moves to a low percentage outfit following a claim and isn’t being raised in class, so there’s no guarantee she’ll run as well today as she has been. The runner-up in that race, Jamminjl, was 50-1, missed by a neck, and is back in today for a stable that is seeking it’s first win of the year. Marie won a restricted $25,000 claimer by four lengths in mid-March in a low-rated affair, was a voided claim, and today surfaces for half-that amount. She’s a very shaky morning line favorite at 6/5.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:10 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): 6-I’m Corfu; 2-Quick Finish; 5-Vroysky; 3-Southern King
Forecast: This grass grab bag for $25,000 claiming turf sprinters offers several possibilities and requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Old pro I’m Corfu (TOC=9/5; ML=3-1) is winless in four career starts but exits a pair of tougher starter’s allowance races and is solid in the speed figure department. The D. O’Neill-trained gelding has a good pace-prompting style in a race that projects to have modest early fractions, so he should have every chance to earn his ninth lifetime win. Quick Finish (TOC=6-1; ML=7/2) is in solid form and has run well over this turf course in the past. In the frame in his last pair, the veteran Vronsky gelding should draft into a good stalking position and have every chance from there. Vroysky (TOC=10-1; ML=10-1) is an intriguing Turf Paradise invader returning off a four-month layoff. His sharp turf win in Phoenix two races back charts very well in this event, and in a field without much zip he could find himself on or near the lead. Southern King (TOC=4-1; ML=6-1), away since February of 2021, returns in a logical spot and should be fit enough following a solid series of workouts at Los Alamitos. He’s always been a two-turn horse and perhaps was entered in this six-furlong dash to do nothing more than shake off the rust, but he gets a break in the weights and with good racing luck might make some noise from off the pace.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:41 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 3-Leyas Candy; 1-Thorne House
Forecast: Leyas Candy earned a better-than-par speed figure when finishing a sharp second (more than four lengths clear of the rest) in his debut last month, has trained well since, and should produce a forward move while shortening to five and one-half furlongs in this state-bred maiden special weight sprint for older horses. The son of Danzing Candy retains leading rider J. Hernandez and really doesn’t have much to beat other than maybe the first timer Thorne House, a Harris Farms homebred who has put together a respectable work tab for trainer D. Pederson. He’ll have to leave cleanly from the rail (no sure thing with a debut runner) but if he does the son of Clubhouse House may have a say in the matter. Both should be used in rolling exotic play with the main punch going to Leyas Candy.
Notable Workouts:
Leyas Candy (May 29, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.2h). Grade: B
Breezing throughout from the half mile pole out to the seven-eighths, splits of :23.2, :47.4 and 1:00.2 looking solid for M. Glatt. Ran well in his debut and should build on that performance next time. Seeking another maiden state-bred sprint.
View Workout Video
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RACE 7: Post: 4:12 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 2-Eleuthera; 8-Teddy’s Barino
Forecast: This first-level allowance turf miler for fillies and mares is fairly competitive but we’ll try to survive and advance using just two. Eleuthera (TOC=4-1; ML=5/2) didn’t get the best of runs when fourth in the Providencia S.-G2 behind subsequent winner (and top-class turf filly) Cairo Memories but earned a career top speed figure despite being beaten more than seven lengths. She was clever in victory when breaking her maiden over this course and distance two runs back, lands a nice inside draw, and should fold into an ideal pace-stalking trip behind the possible pacesetter Ghostem (TOC=6-1; ML=7/2) and have every chance from there. Teddy’s Barino (TOC=7/5; ML=3-1) handled an outclassed state-bred field sprinting on dirt last time out while winning under wraps but is eligible to the same condition because this race is around two-turns on turf. Despite having a sprint-dominated pedigree, she travels very much like a distance-type, so we suspect she will have no trouble with the trip. Worth noting is that the analytics love her. It’ll be interesting to see if M. Smith sends her to the lead from her outside draw or opts to tuck in and gets some cover.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:43 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 3-Midnight Memories; 7-Musica; 2-My Kentucky Girl
Forecast: This is a stakes-quality allowance sprint for fillies and mares, topped by the highly rated debut maiden winner Midnight Memories (TOC=4/5; ML=6/5), who registered a sensational 95 Beyer speed figure when verifying her odds-on favorite’s role over this track and distance five weeks ago. She has trained steadily in the interim to tick her over for this tougher assignment, but she’d better not regress, as there are two others in the field that have big potential, as well, including Musica (TOC=9/2; ML=3-1), who was nosed out in a similar affair in mid-April after a slow start that probably cost her the win. She has a lovely outside draw and projects to inherit a pace-stalking or pace-setting trip, and with another forward move in only her fourth career start the daughter of Dialed In could give the favorite serious competition. My Kentucky Girl (TOC=5-1; ML=3-1) sprung a 20-1 surprise when graduated at first asking over this track and trip in early April, then was a late scratch when she flipped in the paddock just prior to the California Oaks later in the month. Her recent work tab at Golden Gate Fields indicates she’s none the worse for wear, prompting her connections to van her back to Southern California. We expect her to be doing her best work from off the pace.
Notable Workouts:
Midnight Memories (June 1, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.2h). Grade: B+
Breezing outside Martini Mischief (same time) while striding out smoothly past the wire and out to the seven-furlong pole for a full five furlongs on our watches, splits of :24.1, :48.2 and 1:01 flat, plenty left late. Graduated at first asking in a fast race and should move up the ladder.
View Workout Video
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RACE 9: Post: 5:14 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 12-National Road; 8-Mitad Del Mundo; 7-The Key is Unity
Forecast: We’ll triple the nightcap, a maiden claiming turf miler for older horses. National Road is drawn farther out than we’d prefer (the 11-post) but is realistically dropped to the $50,000 level after getting outfooted in a straight maiden turf sprint in his first outing in almost a year. The four-year-old son of Quality Road probably needed to shake off some rust and seems likely to step forward for a barn that has superior stats with the second-off-a-layoff angle. The M. Glatt-trained gelding seems likely to employ a pace-stalking strategy and then have his chance to kick clear from the quarter pole home. Mitad Del Mundo shows up in a seller after a pair of outings vs. maiden special weight foes, most recently when fourth up north in an all-weather affair that produced a decent speed figure. He was moved too soon in that middle distance event and paid the price late; today we’re expecting patient tactics with the switch to U. Rispoli. The Key Is Unity, away since November when he was claimed for $50,000, shows up as a first-time gelding and a first-time Lasix user for a clever outfit, so we’ll assume he’ll return better than he left. Additionally, his pedigree suggests that he’ll step forward big time routing on turf, so with the stable’s “go to” rider T. Base taking the call, the son of Unified looks extremely live and well-meant at 8-1 on the morning line.
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