“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
By Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, Workout Commentary, and True Odds Calculations (“TOC”) identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The “TOC” quantifies the findings of a personal thoroughbred analytics program that contains in its database the results of every race contested at Santa Anita since 2004. More than 75 critical factors in the fields of class, distance, surface, age, and sex have created 227 algorithms that are highly specific to the race being handicapped. The result is a probability line that reflects each contender’s true odds based on a pure 100-point takeout.
The “TOC” applies its mathematical formula only to non-maiden races and displays a maximum of four runners considered the most likely contenders to win. Also listed is the specific algorithm’s sample size plus the top-rated horse’s win percentage and return on investment (ROI). It is suggested that the player utilize the program’s findings to compare each contender’s “true odds” with the morning line and/or actual wagering odds to identify potential overlays and underlays.
Also-eligible runners are not included in any of the calculations until verified as actual starters. When possible, adjustments to the “TOC” will be updated after late scratches.
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 1-Shadow Sphinx; 2-Constitutionaffair; 7-Cane Creek Road
Forecast: Five of the nine entrants in this allowance optional claimer exit a similar race last month that was won by Shadow Sphinx (TOC=5/2; ML=7/2), and they’ll have him to beat again after the K. Mulhall-trained gelding had the good fortune of landing the advantageous rail post position. There is no reason to believe the veteran gelding won’t fire right back, as he’s a winner of 10 of 25 career starts and always has been reliable and dependable. Constitutitonaffair (TOC=4-1; ML=3-1), the beaten favorite when a fading seventh in that common race, should greatly appreciate the turn back to a mile, his preferred trip, and seems likely to bounce back with a major effort. He’s a four-time winner over the local lawn and projects to enjoy a soft stalking trip. The likely controlling speed is Cane Creek Road (TOC=4-1; ML=5-1), wheeled back on just five day’s rest by trainer D. O’Neill and stretching out after setting the fractions before finishing second in a downhill dash vs. first-level allowance foes. If he can shake loose without being pressured, the Bayern gelding could take this field a long way.
Notable Workouts:
Shadow Sphinx (May 19, 4f, :49.2h). Grade: B-
Under cruise control while coming the final three furlongs in :12 flat and :36.4, plenty left late. Holds his edge.
View Workout Video
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RACE 2: Post: 1:33 PT Grade: X
Single: 5-Becca Taylor
Forecast: Becca Taylor (TOC=2/5; ML=4/5) made hard work of it when winning an allowance race up north last month at 2/5, but the speed figure she earned in that victory clearly tops the field in this year’s renewal of the Desert Stormer S.-G3. From her cozy outside post, the daughter of Old Topper should have every chance to improve her career record to eight wins in nine starts. A perfect three-for-three over the Santa Anita main track, the S. Miyadi-trained filly won’t offer any wagering value at 4/5 on the morning line, so you can use her as a short-priced rolling exotic single or simply pass the race.
Notable Workouts:
Becca Taylor (May 28, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02.4h TT). Grade: B
Was under a tight hold leaving the pole and just galloping to the top in :26.1 and :38.1, remained under wraps through the lane and looked fine, up in 1:02.3 on our watches. Maintains her form.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:07 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 1-Aloha Kitten; 3-A New Peace
Forecast: We’ll go two-deep in the third race, a $25,000 claiming turf miler for older fillies and mares. Aloha Kitten (TOC=4/5; ML=7/2) has been overmatched in her last three races but returns to reality today and should regain her best form. The D. O’Neill-trained daughter of Aloha Kitten lands the good rail and projects to inherit a ground-saving, pace prompting trip in a field without much speed. Additionally, she’s a two-time winner over the local lawn and has several back speed figures that are better than par for this level. A New Peace (TOC=9/2; ML=5/2) shortens to a mile and us likely to stick better at this distance in this easier spot. She has never been all that generous under pressure but against this group she may get brave. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Aloha Kitten.
Aloha Kitten (May 15, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02.2h TT). Grade: B-
Mostly on her own in solo training track drill, splits of :25.2, 37.3 and 1:02.2, maintenance move for D. O’Neill. In good enough shape, can improve with a class drop.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:38 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference: 2-Fun Money; 3-Lov U Mean It; 8-Indict the Tiger
Forecast: This appears to be a moderate maiden special weight sprint for juveniles, so we suggest you tread lightly. Fun Money flashed speed before weakening late when third over a wet track at Churchill Downs in her debut just nine days ago, so with a cross-country ship combined with a short turnaround it’s hard to be sure what we’ll get from this filly who will be facing the boys as the 8/5 morning line favorite. Love U Mean It stayed on willingly to be third in a decent debut last month and with that race behind her the daughter of Smokem has every right to step forward. The extra half furlong should be welcomed. Among the newcomers, Indict the Tiger is bred to win early (Smiling Tiger) and has done enough in the a.m. to indicate he has competitive speed for L. Mendez, who won with a first-time baby yesterday. The outside draw should allow him to pop and go or stalk and pounce.
Notable Workouts:
Reign of Speed (April 28, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.1hg). Grade: C+
Always far back in team gate drill with Fordy G (4f, :46.2hg) and Honor It (5f, :59.3hg), no real pressure but dropping back steadily while outrun from the start. Workmates are pretty good but acts like maiden claiming material at this stage.
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Indict the Tiger (May 30, Santa Anita, 4f, :48hg). Grade: B
Three-horse gate drill, lengthy juvenile by Smiling Tiger was best inside Balenciaga Betty (4f, :48.3hg) and Codis Breaker (4f, :48.4hg) while being hustled along throughout, splits of :24.1, :35.4 and :48 flat. Seems to have some run and should be live at first asking if no world beaters show up.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:12 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 7-Rhea Moon; 2-Carroll Girl
Forecast: Rhea Moon somehow managed to get herself beat at 40 cents on the dollar in a similar maiden event for fillies and mares over this course and distance last time out and will be a short price again to graduate in a field that drew the usual suspects. In the money in all four starts (the first two in Ireland), the P. D’Amato-trained sophomore shouldn’t make any mistakes today. Carroll Girl, herself a beaten favorite in two of her last three outings, may not be one to trust either, though her numbers are consistent and are solid for the level. If Rhea Moon runs into a roadblock somewhere along the way, ‘Girl could finally break through. We’ll have tickets including both in our rolling exotics, with the main push going to Rhea Moon.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:45 PT Grade: B
Single: 7-Midnight Lightning
Forecast : This state-bred maiden sprint for juveniles came up unusually soft. The first timers haven’t trained like much, and the known element appears somewhat lackluster, though Midnight Lightning, purchased for $150,000 as a yearling, exits a fast race and seems the most likely to improve. The son of Midnight Storm didn’t leave cleanly, then settled off the pace before staying on with interest through the lane to be a distant third behind nice prospect Thirsty John. Not much more will be needed to handle this assignment.
Notable Workouts:
Weasley (May 22, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.2hg). Grade: C+
Ridden most of the way in team gate drill with Theuntouchableone (same time), splits of :23.4, :35.3 and :48.3 on our watches, stride-for-stride throughout. Hard to separate, both act like maiden claiming juveniles at this stage.
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Westerberg (May 21, Santa Anita, 4f, :49.4hg). Grade: C-
Always far back in gate drill with One Smokin’ Rita (4f, :48.4hg) while lacking speed, splits of :24.4, :37 flat and :49.4, ridden late but without a response. Hard to endorse.
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My Man Biggie (May 25, Santa Anita, 4f, :49.1hg). Grade: C+
Some coaxing in the opening stages, then wasn’t asked much while inside with Knockout Guy (same time), splits of :25 flat, :37.1 and :49.2 on our watches, second best to ‘Guy when eased up after a half. Was well-beaten in debut in straight maiden company, may have a bit of improvement in him but acts like a maiden claiming type.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:17 PT Grade: X
Single: 3-Balnikhov
Forecast: Balnikhov (TOC=3/5; ML=4/5), second in both starts since being imported from Ireland, returns from Kentucky after finishing an excellent second to Stolen Base in the American Turf-G2 on Derby Day when rallying from far back, hitting the front too soon, and then getting worn down late. Blinkers are added and he’s reunited with leading pilot J. Hernandez, who was aboard the P. D’Amato-trained gelding when he was nosed out in the Singletary S. in his U.S. debut in early April. Listed at 4/5 on the morning line and looking very much like an odds-on favorite on paper, he can be regarded as a short-priced, rolling exotic single in a race that otherwise should be left alone.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:49 PT Grade: X
Single: 7-Whiskey Blue
Forecast: Bottom-rung maiden claiming fillies and mares sprint six furlongs in the penultimate race on the card. Typical of these types of races, there isn’t much to deal with. Whiskey Blue has been away since August but returns with a decent series of workouts that should have her fit enough for a barn that hits at a strong 21% with layoff runners. With just two races of experience – one of which was declared a no-contest at Del Mar last summer – the daughter of Maclean’s Music would seem to have more upside than her much more exposed rivals. We’ll put her on top by default but it’s another race that probably should be skipped over.
Notable Workouts:
Whiskey Blue (May 28, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.3hg). Grade: B-
In blinkers, was hustled from the gate to prove best over Agency (same time) with splits of :24.2, :36.2 and 48.4, okay work for bottom-rung maiden claimer in M. Glatt barn. Aways since August and seems to be returning in good enough shape. May be competitive off the bench vs. soft foes.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:21 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 2-Percolate; 4-Quintecents; 5-One More Bid
Forecast: Trainer Michael McCarthy has two main players in this maiden turf sprint for older horses. Percolate, away since last October, returns with Lasix and has form that is better than the lines show, so with good racing luck today he should be along in time. Also, the blinkers-off angle always catches our eye. Stable mate Quintecents ran well over this course and distance in his second career outing (and his first since September) when second in a maiden $50,000 last month. A solid work in company with Ce Ce since that race indicates the son of Goldencents is set to produce another forward move. He should be on or near the lead throughout. One More Bid stumbled badly and lost all chance at the start when unplaced two-turning on the main track last time out. His first two outings – both sprints – weren’t bad, and with the addition of blinkers and the turn back to a sprint the son of California Chrome is worth giving another chance to.
Notable Workouts:
Quintecents (May 27, Santa Anita, 4f, :47.4h). Grade: B
Stayed even inside Ce Ce (same time) without undue pressure (classy workmate going easily), splits of :23.2 and :47.3 on our watches, decent move for maiden. Produced a forward move in his second career start (and first off a long layoff) and is doing well.
View Workout Video
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