“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 4-Phenom
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Phenom has yet to earn a speed figure that is par for this level, but in a maiden special weight turf sprint for older fillies and mares that came up usually soft, the Phil D’Amato-trained sophomore appears to be something of a standout. A solid runner-up in a similar affair three weeks ago in her first outing since March, the daughter of Midnight Storm needs only to run back to that race to handle this modest task. At 9/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower, she can be used as a no value rolling exotic single but not much more than that.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): Let Him Do; 4-Flame Rider
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Let Him Do shows steadily rising speed figures, and after being freshened since late August he appears ready to produce another forward move in this starter optional claiming sprint for juveniles. The John Sadler-trained son of Good Magic lacks gate speed but can turn it on late, and with the switch to Juan Hernandez he should be capable of producing the last run. Flame Riderhas plenty of zip, but his stick is suspect. A 10 length maiden claiming win in early September earned a strong number, but in two subsequent outings he was beaten a combined 38 lengths after flashing early speed but then stopping badly through the lane. A bullet half mile workout four days ago (:46 4/5) is promising, so if he can shake loose early, he might take this field a long way.
Notable Workouts:
Let Him Do (Oct. 21, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.2h). Grade: B
In blinkers, mostly on his own looking solid while coming the final three furlongs in :12 flat and :36.3. Doing well and looks ready for a top effort.
View Workout Video
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RACE 3: Post: 2:02 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Deise Delight
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Deise Delight is listed as the 9/5 morning line favorite by likely will go lower as a logical rolling exotic single in this mile turf event for restricted (nw-2) $32,000 claimers. A good runner-up in a starter allowance affair sprinting at Del Mar in late August, the Irish-bred mare can handle this longer trip and is the likely controlling speed from her favorable inside draw. The only concern is the somewhat suspicious drop in class, especially since the Doug O’Neill-trained mare was a voided claim last year. Let’s hope she has at least one good one left.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:31 PT Grade: C
Main ticket (in order of preference): Kitten Calls; 7-Baby’s Dream
Backups/Savers: none
Forecast: We’ll go two-deep in this bottom rung maiden claiming main track router for older fillies and mares, but not with any degree of confidence. Kitten Calls, a distant runner-up at this bottom rung level last time out while well clear of the others, is guaranteed a ground saving trip from her favorable rail draw and has better that par figures for this level. She rates top billing by default. Baby’s Dreams, with just three prior outings, probably has more room to improve, and this class drop to the bottom in her second start off a long layoff may prove to be the winning ticket. However, this will be her first start on dirt, and her pedigree is strictly grass, so who knows what she’s capable of doing? Tread lightly here.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:01 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): Big Beauty
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Big Beauty was almost four lengths clear of the rest when a sharp runner up in a fast downhill turf sprint three weeks ago, and a repeat of that race today should be more than sufficient to handle this allowance optional claiming flat course sprint for state-bred fillies and mares. The Joh Sadler-trained daughter of Mr. Big lacks tactical speed but can turn it on late, and over a course and distance that usually favors the late runners she should be along in plenty of time. At 5/2 on the morning line, she’s a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:38 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Fort Warren; 2-Texthelegend
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Trainer Bob Baffert holds the aces in this maiden juvenile sprint, with a couple of first timers that are highly regarded. Fort Warren has done everything in the morning like a very good prospect and seems plenty fit and ready to score at first asking, assuming he doesn’t make any mistakes from the rail. He’s clearly bred for distance (Curlin) but appears to have more than his share of early speed. Texthelegend, a son of Justify, has been impressive as well, though we suspect he won’t show his best stuff until tried over a distance of ground. Both should be used in rolling exotic play. With Fort Warren getting the bulk of our action.
Notable Workouts:
Fort Warren (Oct. 24, Santa Anita, 6f, 1:12.4hg). Grade: B+
In blinkers, tons best over She Go Go (4f, :50hg) while mostly on his own throughout in very impressive gate work for B. Baffert, splits of :24 flat, :35.2, :47 flat and 1:12.4 to the wire, merely coasting in the final furlong. Plenty fit, Curlin 2-year-old colt appears to have plenty of ability.
View Workout Video
Texthelegend (Oct. 22, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.2hg). Grade: B
Not a quick type but did well under some late coaxing in team gate drill outside Mr. Fisk (5f, 1:00.3hg) for B. Baffert, splits of :24.1, :35.4, :47.2 and 1:00.1 on our watches, solid move while getting geared up for debut. Nice prospect for sure, probably will prefer a distance of ground, eventually. Workmate, by Arrogate, probably will be okay later on.
View Workout Video
Spun Intended (Oct. 15, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.3hg). Grade: B
In blinkers, much best over Papale (5f, 1:01.2hg) for M. Glatt, ridden throughout, splits of :24.1, :35.4, :47.2 and 1:00.3, useful type drill for juvenile son of Hard Spun. Not bad, may be a down the road type.
View Workout Video
Habeas (Oct. 22, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.3hg). Grade: B-
Second best outside Saffa’s Day (same time) while being ridden most of the way, splits of :24 flat, :35.1, :47 flat and :59.3, doing his best to the end (workmate breezing) for J. Sadler. Tend to want to see one first, maybe a route type.
View Workout Video
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RACE 7: Post: 4:01 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 9-Gallovie; 6-Annie Graham
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Here is a wide open six furlong grass grab bag for $25,000 claiming fillies and mares. Best advice is to include as many as your budget allows. We’re intrigued by the route-to-sprint angle for Gallovie in her first start since being haltered by Kristin Mulhall for this price just 15 days ago. She was a solid runner-up in that race after striking the front in mid-stretch, and the feeling is that as a one-run type she might be best suited as a late-running sprinter, or at least that’s what her previous form indicates. Regular rider Ryan Curatolo knows her well and stays aboard. Annie Graham, claimed in three of her last four starts, switches to grass, and while her only prior turf start was poor, she is clearly better now than she was then. The daughter of Grazen has good tactical speed, and though she was a lethargic third when 3/5 in her most recent outing earlier this month, a repeat of her race before last earned a number that would easily handle this assignment.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:31 PT Grade: C
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Divine Feminine; 5-Fireman Dan; 8-Pioneering Papa; 10-Stayin’ Out Late
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: This is an inscrutable affair in which nothing would surprise. Devine Feminine is a late-running sprinter and needs a pace meltdown to have his best chance, but it could happen, especially at this abbreviated sprint distance in which quick early fractions are likely. He’s a perfect one-for-one at five and one-half furlongs and his numbers put him right there. Fireman Dan, third when beaten a neck in the same race Devine Feminine just finished second in, will be dangerous if he can turn in two alike, although consistency has never been his strong suit. Pioneering Papa plummets in class and at this level should have his chance to regain his best form. However, the barn has been ice cold this meeting. Stayin’ Out Late is nicely drawn outside and takes a sharp drop in class. With back numbers that are better than these but with dull recent form, he’s a hard one to classify but worth tossing in somewhere.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:01 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Shes’a Perfectlady
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Shes’a Perfectladyhas won half of her six career starts sprinting on turf at Santa Anita, and after finishing fourth in a recent Hillside dash the John Sadler-trained filly moves back to the flat course, which she clearly prefers. We’re expecting her to settle in the second flight and then take hold at the quarter pole and have every chance from there. At 3-1 on the morning line, she’s a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 10: Post: 5:31 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-With This Vow; 1-Angel Nadeshiko; 8-Tayet
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: With This Vow is a four-time winner eligible for this race due to her being entered for the $50,000 tag, and while her recent good form was established on grass, she can handle dirt just as well. In fact, she’s been first or second in three of four career starts on the local main track and her speed figures are solid. Angel Nadeshiko is questionable around two turns – she seems most effective sprinting – but from her rail post she’s certain to employ gate to wire tactics and if not pressured early could take this field a long way. Tayet is a one-paced grinding type but a fit on figures and projects to settle in the second flight. If the pace types cave in, he’ll be in the right spot to pick them up.
