“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): Prince Abama; 3-Gregorian Chant
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Prince Abama bit off more than he could chew when third in the City of Hope Mile-G3 over this course and distance earlier this month, but the Irish-bred gelding gets an easier task in this listed stakes that should be within his scope. Reunited with “win” rider Hector Berrios, the Phil D’Amato-trained gelding has yet to connect in four starts over the local lawn but has hit the board in three of those races and based on speed figures he should be capable of producing a winning late kick. The “other” D’Amato in the field is the one to fear most. Gregorian Chant, probably most effective as a late-running sprinter, nevertheless has strong two-turn form has well and is a five-time winner over the Santa Anita grass course. His runner-up effort in the Wickerr Stakes over a mile two runs back charts very well in this event.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:31 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 2-Night Party; 4-Golden Again
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Night Party, a $50,000 claim by Craig Dollase at Los Alamitos last month when flashing good speed but wilting late, returns at the same level and may be capable of holding sway in this modest sprint for juvenile fillies. Her debut effort, if repeated, would be good enough to beat this field, and with the switch to the barn’s current “go-to” rider Paul Frey the daughter of Capital Account deserves top billing. Also worth including on your ticket is Golden Again, who displayed some life when second in a softer affair at Los Alamitos last time out. She likely will employ stalking tactics, and if our top pick fails to see out the trip ‘Again should have dead aim and every chance. We’ll try to by using these two in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:04 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): Going Global
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Going Global missed at 50 cents on the dollar when second to chief rival Avenue de France in the John C. Mabee S.-G2 at Del Mar last month but returns to her favorite course and distance and projects to be odds-on to make amends in this year’s renewal of the Goldikova S.-2. The Phil D’Amato-trained filly has looked sensational in the morning in recent weeks (see below), and while not offering any real wagering value in the win pool seems like a logical slam dunk, short-priced rolling exotic single.
Notable Workouts:
Going Global (Oct. 23, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.3h TT). Grade: A-
Spectacular solo training track drill for D’Amato, breezing throughout and finishing full of run while looking sharp as a tack. Missed as the favorite in her last start at Del Mar but should be able to make amends in the Goldikova S.-G2 based on this breeze.
View Workout Video
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RACE 4: Post: 2:36 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Redline; 3-Traegar; 6-Lovesick Blues
Backups/Savers: none
Forecast: Redline flopped when 3/5 in a similar affair last month but there are reasons to believe that he will bounce back today. The John Sadler-trained colt was caught between runners in that race while being niggled to stay close and then got mad and flattened out. Today, at this extended sprint trip, the son of Texas Red colt has the luxury of settling early and producing one late kick and given that type of trip/ride he should be capable of tagging the leaders close home. A sharp recent five furlong drill serves the purpose of having him on edge. Traegar is lightly raced with rising speed figures, and with another forward move today the son of Congrats may be hard to catch. Second in the same race as our top pick exits while finishing five lengths clear of that rival, the Mark Glatt-trained ridgeling should be prominent throughout. Lovesick Blues, is a genuine a consistent sprinter with a prior win over the Santa Anita main track. The Grazen gelding has the ideal stalking style for this distance, is a fit on numbers, and is a “must use” on our ticket at 5-1 on the morning line.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:06 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): First Peace
Backups/saver: 7-Eastbound
Forecast: With the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern, First Peace looks ready to graduate in this maiden turf miler for juveniles. After chasing home Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint favorite Speed Boat Beach on dirt in his debut, the Mark Glatt-trained colt improved considerably when switched to grass and ran a winning race in defeat when going down by a half-length close home to the more experienced Kid Azteca in a hot sprint last month. The son of Funtastic should have no difficulty taking control early as the controlling speed and then be tough to catch. Also worth using, at least as a backup, is the second timer Eastbound, green and far back early but a fast-finishing third behind the highly promising Classical Cat in his debut sprinting on dirt at Del Mar. The son of Good Magic may need racing to figure things out, and while we’re not sure how much if any grass will move him up, today’s two-turn trip should accelerate his improvement.
Notable Workouts:
First Peace (Oct. 23, Santa Anita, 4f, :49.1h). Grade: B+
In blinkers, breezing through the lane looking sharp, never asked, plenty left. Improving with experience, acts like he’ll handle a distance of ground.
View Workout Video
Eastbound (Oct. 17, Santa Anita, 4f, :49h). Grade: B-
Still green and somewhat unfocused but definitely has some ability, final three furlongs :11.4 and :37 flat to the wire, mild coaxing. Still learning.
View Workout Video
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RACE 6: Post: 3:36 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Chismosa; 4-Big Celebration
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Chismosa is unbeaten in three starts with rising speed figures and has the perfect (settle early, accelerate late) style for this seven furlong distance. Low percentage connections notwithstanding, the daughter of Clubhouse Ride is listed at 9/5 on the morning line and probably will go lower. A recent bullet :59 3/5 workout at Los Alamitos should have her primed to extend her winning streak. Big Celebration graduated by a widening seven lengths at Los Alamitos in late September in her second career start while producing a significant forward move. As a daughter of Mr. Big, she seems certain to continue to improve with experience and distance and is the one the favorite will have to be concerned with the most.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:06 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Go Joe Won
Backups/savers: 3-Perfect Flight
Forecast: This year’s renewal of the Twilight Derby-G2 seems fairly wide open, so let’s go for a big price on top. Go Joe Won moves into graded stakes company after breaking his maiden extra gamely in his fourth career start and then pulling off a 21-1 upset in the Shared Belief Stakes, both races at Del Mar over a mile on the main track. Today he tries to carry his speed nine furlongs on grass, a tougher task to be sure, but the projected race shape indicates that the Paula Capestro-trained ridgeling should have a very easy time as the controlling speed and certainly will enjoy much softer early fractions than the :21 4/5 and :45 flat early splits that he had to deal with last time out. That he still managed to hang on for victory in that race while bravely fighting off odds-on favorite High Connections tells us he is a 3-year-old with a considerable amount of quality, and his recent work tab at San Luis Rey Downs provides a reason to believe that further improvement is likely. Furthermore, as a grandson of Giant’s Causeway from a mare by More Than Ready, he has the credentials to move up a ton on grass. All and all, at 12-1 on the morning line, he’s a price chance worth taking. We’ll also include the progressive Perfect Flight on our ticket as well. The Peter Miller-trained son of Uncle Mo finished a solid runner-up in his only outing on grass (the La Jolla H. at Del Mar) and a recent main track allowance win from older horses produced a career top speed figure, one good enough to win this race.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:36 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Giver Not a Taker
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Giver Not a Taker began his career with two impressive wins from state-bred company and then was out of his element when unplaced in the Zuma Beach Stakes facing open company going long on grass. Back sprinting on the main track facing California-bred competition, the Peter Miller-trained son of Dancing Candy appears well-spotted to regain his winning form, albeit at a short price (he’s 4/5 on the morning line). In a race that probably doesn’t offer any real wagering value, you can use this 2-year-old as a single in rolling exotic play or simply pass the race.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:06 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Connie Swingle
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Course specialist Connie Swingle had to work a bit harder and earn a career top speed figure to extend her streak down the hill to 3-for-3 when holding on to win the listed Unzip Me Stakes earlier this month. She faces a bit stronger competition today but given her affinity for this tricky course the daughter of Grazen clearly is the one to beat again in this year’s renewal of the Senator Ken Maddy Stakes. She is likely to go a bit lower than her morning line of 9/5, but unless she regresses – and runners from the Phil D’Amato barn rarely do – this speedy daughter of Grazen should be able to dominate her rivals once again.
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RACE 10: Post: 5:36 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Pammy’s Ready; 10-Cairo Memories
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: The Autumn Miss S.-G3 over a mile on turf for fillies and mares may boil down to two main players. Pammy’s Ready outran her odds (20-1) when a rapidly closing second to Connie Swingle in Unzip Me Stakes down the hill earlier this month in a career top performance, and if she can duplicate that effort around two turns the Peter Miller filly can be capable of producing a mild upset at 5-1 on the morning line. She has a prior victory over this course and distance, but not against this level of competition. However, the daughter of More Than Ready appears vastly improved and could easily be this good now. Cairo Memories is the likely choice and one to beat based the company she has been keeping of late. We’re not thrilled about her extreme outside post, nor her morning line of 8/5, but it is hard to ignore that the Bob Hess, Jr.-trained filly is a perfect three-for-three over the Santa Anita turf course on a resume that includes two graded stakes victories. If she can negotiate a decent trip, the daughter of Cairo Prince will be tough to handle.
Notable Workouts:
Cairo Memories (Oct. 21, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.2h TT). Grade: B
Went much slower than official time but looked fine, going off in :26.4 and then finishing strongly through the lane, :39 flat and 1:02.2 our watches, mild coaxing only. Been in tough the last pair but can snap back if not pitched too high.
View Workout Video
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