Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Saturday, April 28, 2018

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Saturday, April 28, 2018

RACE 1: Post 12:00 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 4-An Eddie Surprise; 6-Cute Knows Cute; 8-Mrasseel; 9-Tiger Mom

Forecast:  The opener is an extremely difficult Hillside turf sprint for $50,000 claiming 3-year-old fillies.  We’ll go four-deep and hope that’s sufficient.  Mrasseel surfaces in a seller for the first time and the class drop just might what she needs to gain her first victory in North America.  The Irish-bred filly has rising speed figures, and with another forward move today against this lesser group could produce a winning late kick.  An Eddie Surprise, runner-up under similar conditions two weeks ago, is a course specialist and should have every chance from a pace-stalking position.  Cute Knows Cute, a winner at Del Mar in November in starter allowance company, has a series of solid works for her comeback and comes from a barn that has excellent stats with layoff runners.  Tiger Mom has a long shot chance based on improving form and a pedigree that suggests she’ll move up on grass.  At 15-1 on the morning line, she’s certainly worth including somewhere in your exotics.

 

​​RACE 2: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Lucky Sun; 8-Borg

Forecast: Borg flopped in his comeback but could improve a bunch today for new trainer Yakteen while breaking from the cozy outside post.  At this level, the son of Candy Ride really doesn’t have much to beat, so we’ll give him another chance.  Lucky Sun drops to the bottom while turning back to a sprint, and the Miyadi-trained gelding has a big look with a repeat of his runner-up effort two runs back.  We’ll use both in our rolling exotics while preferring Borg on top.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: C

Use: 1-Fender Bender; 8-Bless His Heart

Forecast:  It won’t take much to win the third race, a $20,000 maiden claiming sprint.  First-timer Bless His Heart will leave from the outside draw and will have every chance to pop and go in a field with very little early speed except for the morning line favorite, Fender Bender.  ‘Heart, from the Palma barn (excellent stats with debut runners), should be plenty fit and will be tough if he can run at all.  ‘Bender is a Phoenix invader with numbers that fit and would appear to be the best of the known element.  We’ll use both in our rolling exotics but otherwise not participate.

 

​​​RACE 4: Post: 1:30 PT. Grade: X

Single:  6-Plein Air

Forecast: Plein Air was impressive in her U.S. debut winning over this course and distance in the listed Astra Stakes in January, and nothing more will be needed to repeat in this Grade-3 affair.  The Baffert-trained Irish-bred is a committed front-runner and should be quick enough to successfully employ her gate to wire tactics.  Let’s make here a short-price rolling exotic single.

 

​​RACE 5: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 2-Full of Luck; 4-Dr. Dorr

Forecast:  Dr. Dorr has never been better and today will try to carry his speed nine furlongs.  Clearly the controlling speed, the Baffert-trained gelding should be capable of getting the distance.  Full of Luck was a multiple group stakes winner in South America but was disappointing in his U.S. debut when well-beaten at Golden Gate Fields in the San Francisco Mile last month.  This will be his first career start on dirt, but he’s bred for it and has trained very well over the Santa Anita main track for Hollendorfer.  With Prat riding him back, the Chilean-bred horse is worth including in rolling exotic play.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 4-Marckie’s Water; 6-Hootie; 8-Kristi’s Copilot

Forecast:  Although he’s been away since last summer, Marckie’s Water could be set to spring a surprise in this 10-furlong conditioned allowance turf affair.  A state-bred stakes winner over the local lawn, the son of Tribal Rule has trained well enough to be fit for a big try for a barn that has solid stats with comebackers.  ‘Water is good enough to win based on speed figures and should get the patient ride he needs from Blanc.  There’s some value here at 8-1 on the morning line.  Kristi’s Copilot might be stretching his limit at this trip but if he’s handed the lead the Machowsky-trained gelding could take this field a very long way.  He’s fast on figures and Talamo knows him well.  Hootie almost stole a similar race over this course and distance in mid-February, setting hot fractions before being worn down late.  Smith stays aboard and probably will try a more conservative strategy today.  Let’s use all three in our rolling exotics and then press a bit keying Marckie’s Water on top.

 

​​​RACE 7: Post 3:00 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 1-Liberty Jack; 5-Wise Curlin

Forecast:  We’ll double the seventh race, a main track miler for restricted (Nw-2) $12,500 claimers.  Liberty Jack draws the rail and stretches out for the first time; the Miller-trained gelding almost certainly will be the controlling speed.  If he’s ever going to stay two-turns, it will be in this, his first attempt.  We’ll also toss in Wise Curlin, a Eurton-trained 5-year-olds with rising numbers and a win vs. bottom-rung maiden claimers last time out.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade: B

Single: 8-Rumpus Cat

Forecast: The first-timers don’t appear to be anything special, so let’s go with the best of the proven element, Rumpus Cat.  A sharp runner-up over this course and distance in just his second career start last month, the son of Street Sense should continue to improve with experience and will likely draft into an ideal stalking position and then have every chance.  At 4-1 on the morning line he’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.

 

RACE 9: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 4-Magnolia’s Hope; 5-Miss Ricochet; 6-Fight Lika Girl; 7-Loving Lynda

Forecast: This appears to be a stronger-than-average maiden special weight sprint for state-bred fillies and mares that requires a spread in rolling exotic play.  Miss Ricochet missed at 2/5 when last seen in October and was given some time off, so we’ll assume she had a physical excuse.  She returns with a healthy work tab and the ability to fire fresh, so the daughter of Colonel John looks very much like the one to beat.  Loving Lynda, a second-timer from the D’Amato barn, closed a gap in her debut to be second earlier this month and has every right to step forward today.  The two Machowsky-trained first timers, Magnolia’s Hope and Fight Lika Girl, both have had their moments in morning workouts that indicate some ability, so we’ll include them as well.

 

 RACE 10: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: C

Use: 1-Reckless Charm; 2-Cow Dog; 5-Allie’s Love; 7-Esterfourfourteen

Forecast: This restricted $12,500 claiming sprint for fillies and mares is a complete mess.  We’ll use four, but if you find the need to spread even deeper go right ahead.  Estherfourfourteen returned off a layoff in an open $16,000 claimer two weeks ago and weakened after flashing early speed.  The Miyadi-trained daughter of Ministers Wild Cat should be fitter and tougher today, especially against this softer group, and may offer the best of value in the field at 6-1 on the morning line.  Cow Dog, likely the lower priced of the two Miyadi entrants, has numbers that fit and early speed that should be more effective at this shorter five and one-half furlong trip.  Allie’s Love just graduated vs. maiden $20,000 foes with a career top number and is realistically spotted in her first try vs. winners.  Reckless Charm can be used, too, if you can get past her one-for-28 career record.

 

​​​​​RACE 11: Post 5:00 PT.  Grade: C+

Use: 3-Reign On; 8-South Americain; 9-Skelton Pass

Forecast:  Here we have another grass grab bag, a downhill turf sprint for $20,000 claimers.  We’ll use three but without any real conviction.  Skelton Pass drops to his lowest level ever and switches to Prat.  He’s a two-time winner over the local lawn and his recent speed figures are better than par for this level, so we’ll put him on top.  Reign On just won vs. $25,000 foes under these conditions but turning in two alike never has been his strong suit.  If he can, he’ll be right there.  South Americain shortens up to a sprint and has run well over this course in the past.  He could be a dangerous closer at a big price (he’s 15-1 on the morning line) so we’ll use him as well.

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Saturday, April 28, 2018

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