The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
Sunday, April 29, 2018
RACE 1: Post 11:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 5-Cauesway Carolyn; 6-Classy Tune
Forecast: Classy Tune ran exceptionally well in her comeback when a fast-finishing third (beaten a half-length) in the Mizdirection Stakes last month and if she doesn’t go backwards today the Callaghan-trained filly will be hard to beat. She switches to Prat and appears to have found her niche as a late-running turf sprinter. Causeway Carolyn earned a huge speed figure – a career top – when a strong runner-up in an allowance race over this course and distance in her first start for the Miller barn. A similar effort today puts her right there. Both should be included in rolling exotic play; we’ll give the edge on top to Classy Tune.
RACE 2: Post 12:00 PT. Grade: X
Single: 7-Baby Gronk
Forecast: Baby Gronk was extremely well meant in his recent comeback but was nosed out in a fast, highly-rated race. Anything close to that effort today puts him the winner’s circle, but he’s 8/5 on the morning and almost certainly will go odds-on. Let’s make this Spawr-trained gelding a no value rolling exotic single.
RACE 3: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Foxtail; 4-Sunday Prophet; 7-International Diva
Forecast: Maiden claiming fillies and mares meet over a mile in the third race, a difficult affair with little to trust. We’ll go three-deep and hope that’s sufficient. Sunday Prophet, away since mid-January and making her first start for Baltas, picks up Prat and is likely to produce a significant forward move. This will be her first start in a seller and she’ll definitely appreciate the softer company. Foxtail has the two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern we like and should be stalking or pressing the pace. She’s a fit on numbers and retains Baze. International Diva returns to the high-priced maiden claiming ranks and adds blinkers. She’s back routing today and a repeat of her debut race two runs back makes her a contender.
RACE 4: Post: 1:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Conquest Flatterme; 4-Sturdy One
Forecast: Sturdy One and Conquest Flatterme hail from the high-percentage Cerin barn and both have strong credentials to run well here, so we’ll include both in our rolling exotics. Sturdy One won an off-the-turf affair last month in game style with a good stalking trip and most likely will employ similar tactics today. Conquest Flatterme seeks her third straight while moving up the class ladder, and in her present form should be tough once again despite the tougher assignment. Study One has the edge in the speed figure department so we’ll give her the edge on top.
RACE 5: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Smiling Angelo; 6-Flynn
Forecast: This is a split of the second race, a state-bred maiden special weight sprint. Smiling Angelo is bred for much speed and shows a 58 4/5 seconds bullet gate drill just six days ago to indicate plenty of ability. The rail post is a concern, but if he leaves with his field the D’Amato-trained sophomore may be hard to beat. Flynn has the benefit of a prior run, having flashed good speed before weakening late to wind up third in a similar dash earlier this month. The Dixie Chatter gelding is the best of the known element and should be included as well in rolling exotic play.
RACE 6: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 4-Tell Me More; 7-Temple Princess
Forecast: This is a split of the third race, a maiden $50,000 claimer over a mile on turf for fillies and mares. Tell Me More is an eight-race maiden but has hit the board seven times. She’s a fit on figures but may lack a winning and already has failed as the favorite on four occasions, including once at 50 cents on the dollar. Temple Princess shows up for a tag for the first time and seems certain to benefit from the class relief. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics with preference on top to ‘Princess.
RACE 7: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Lontani; 4-Bobby Axelrod; 5-Aurora d’Oro
Forecast: Bobby Axelrod was beaten by a good colt (McKale) in his debut while earning a strong speed figure; a similar effort today should be good enough to beat this field. The son of Tale of the Cat has trained quite well since that mid-March outing so a forward move is likely. Aurora d’Oro is a first-timer by Mineshaft from the O’Neill barn with a fairly promising work tab, and seems cranked up for a big effort first crack out of the box. Lontani, a closing second without being knocked about in his debut, gets an extra furlong to work with and should be heard from late, but will need some racing luck from the rail.
RACE 8: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Conquest Tsunami; 5-Isotherm
Forecast: Conquest Tsunami returns from Dubai and is wheeled right back into action with just a month in between races. This is a tough turnaround, but the veteran gelding is perfect in two starts over this course and distance and will be hard to handle if he brings his “A” game. Isotherm has been routing most of his career but may appreciate this turn back to a sprint. He’ll be running on strongly late into the teeth of what certainly will be a hot pace. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics.
RACE 9: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Gentrified; 2-Shackleford Banks; 3-Eagle Screams
Forecast: We’ll go three-deep in the finale, a main middle distance affair for $20,000 claimers. Gentrified drops a notch, lands the good rail, and should enjoy a ground-saving, pace-stalking trip. The Malibu Moon gelding likes this track and hails from the red hot Cerin barn, so we’ll put him on top. Eagle Screams is an old timer that has finished in the money in 40 of 63 career starts. He’s in good form for Miyadi and should be on or near the lead throughout. Shackleford Banks in the most dangerous of the closers and earned a very competitive speed figure when second vs. a slightly softer band earlier this month. He has beaten better that these in the past, so at 6-1 on the morning line he’s worth tossing in as well.