Leverage Plays: Late Pick 4 Analysis at Santa Anita Park on January 20th, 2018

Below is the late Pick 4 ticket at Santa Anita Park on January 20th, 2018. As always the ticket is $20 or less.

Race 6

Sauce On Side (#5, 2-1) can win two in a row with a repeat effort of her last race. Dropping to a $30,000 maiden claimer for the first time, she crushed her foes over this track, at this distance. She is now protected by Miller, is drawn well and catches a field without much ability. Krissys Manicure, who defeated her two starts back, returned to beat many of today’s foes by a much greater margin.

Race 7

Beau Recall (#9, 7-2) has not sprinted since arriving in America, but the sharp cutback could be what she needs to break through. She won going 7 Furlongs in Ireland and won her U.S. debut going a mile. Though she is a closer, running at a mile and an eighth and a mile and a quarter did not necessarily flatter her style. Going 6 1/2 furlongs, there will be much more early pace signed on to help set things up for her down the lane.

Princess Princess (#4, 15-1) received a nice prep last time out and could be poised to upset this field at a big price. East Coast turf horses are always dangerous on the West Coast and this filly made a very nice middle move going a mile in her California debut before tiring. 6 1/2 furlongs should be perfect for this mare while making her second start for Richard Baltas. She gets a class test and has been a bridesmaid, but at 15-1, this mare is worth inclusion on the ticket.

Bendable (#2, 5-2) always shows up with a good effort and her best is good enough to win in this spot. The Grade 3 winner makes her first start on turf, but her dam raced exclusively on the turf. She may prove to be even better on the grass and if that is the case, look out.

Race 8

Rocky’s Show (#4, 4-1) has run three of his best races sprinting with blinkers and the gelding will get that opportunity once more in here. It is tough to trust little known connections, but this horse has been consistent and makes his third start off a layoff.

Quantum Force (#5, 15-1) deserves another chance at a big price. He broke maiden in the special weight ranks before heading to the sidelines for over two years. He made a decent middle move in his first race back and broke through the starting gate prior to his last start. He fits the level and could be sitting on a big race third off a layoff and first off the claim for Edward Freeman.

Gosofar (#2, 2-1) is a logical choice as he drops down to the $12,500 level for the first time. He returns to a dirt sprint and may outclass his foes, but it is tough to take 2-1 on a horse that is 1 for 13 lifetime.

Race 9

Ronald R (#8, 5-1) brings strong European form into this downhill sprint. He had two wins and two seconds in his only tries over a firm turf. Flavien Prat signs aboard and the outside draw should help keep this import out of trouble. The only concern is the distance. Though he won sprinting in Europe, trainer Simon Callaghan said in an interview with XBTV that his new gelding should ultimately be at his best at a mile.

Horse Greedy (#2, 12-1) could be primed for a big effort after being given a run around the track following a long layoff last time. He ran very well in his prior turf tries. This gelding got tired late going a mile over the turf and could not quite get up going 5 furlongs on the turf. 6 1/2 furlongs should hit him right between the eyes and his best efforts over either surface put him squarely in the mix.

Conquest Tsunami (#6, 4-1) is a dangerous fresh face to the Southern California turf division. He has been working well for his first start for Peter Miller and should finally get to make his first start over a firm turf course in a long time. Look for him to sit right off of Tribal Fighter and try to pounce late.

Tribal Fighter (#5, 4-1) will try to get loose on the lead for Richard Baltas. This hard-knocker is very consistent down the hill and will benefit from moving off the rail. Nakatani retains the mount and has been riding as well as anyone on the Santa Anita turf course.

$0.50 Pick 4 Ticket: 5 – 2,4,9 – 2, 4, 5 – 2,5,6,8  = $18

-Padraic Manocchio

@xbtvpadraic

Leverage Plays: Late Pick 4 Analysis at Santa Anita Park on January 20th, 2018

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